P001145133
Chapter 1 1.1 Rate of birth : 19 per 1000 population per year
Rate of death: 9.3 per 1000 population per year
Rate of immigration: 2.7 per 1000 population per year
Rate of emigration: 11.5 per 1000 population per year
Overall population change rate:
R = [Rb -Rd] + [Ri – Re]
= [0.019 – 0.0093] + [0.0027 – 0.0115] = 0.0009
Or 0.9 per 1000 population per year.
1.2 1990 population = 3.72 million
Rate of population change from 1990 to 2005 = 0.9 per 1000 population per year
Population in 2020 = P0 e Rt =3 720 000 x e 0.9/1000 x 30 = 3,821,808.
1.3 Emissions per equivalent US dollar of GDP for each country in 2007:
Country | Population | GDP | Co2 emissions | GDP/capita | E CO2/GDP | Brazil | 188 | 621 | 106 | 3303.1915 | 170.6924316 | China | 1314 | 2512 | 1665 | 1911.7199 | 662.8184713 | India | 1095 | 796 | 338 | 726.94064 | 424.6231156 | Nigeria | 132 | 83 | 114 | 628.78788 | 1373.493976 | United States | 298 | 1322 | 1709 | 4436.2416 | 1292.738275 |
1.4
To be able to calculate the equivalent CO2 , the rate population of change is calculated:
P= P0 e Rt
R= (1/t) ln (P/P0)
R = 0.0126341 CO2 for 2010 calculation = eCO2= Population x GNP(%/yr)/person x CO2 /GNP(%/yr)
| Population | GNP growth(%/yr) | decrease in eCO2/GNP (%/yr) | eCO2 | | 2000 | 2010 | 2025 | 1990-2000 | 2000-2025 | | 2007 | 2010 | 2025 | Brazil | 175 | 199 | 240 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 170.6924 | 278.6 | 336 | China | 1290 | 1489 | 1600 | 5.5 | 4 | 1 | 662.8185 | 5956 | 6400 | India | 990 | 1262 | 1425 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 424.6231 | 933.88 | 1054.5 | Nigeria | 148 | 210 | 250 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 1373.494 | 50.4 | 60 | United States | 270 | 294 | 307 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1292.738 | 349.86 | 365.33 |
2.1 I agree that 25 - 50 years as the best choice for a sustainability planning timescale. As those timescales are roughly to be two humans generations. So the plan can still be