Is Immigration the Solution to Population Ageing ?
Is immigration the solution to population ageing ?
Population ageing took place, without any exception, in all industrialized countries all along the XXth century. Initially it was not a problem for European societies because it had a positive effect on economic growth. Today, Eurostat estimates that the over 64 population is very likely to rise from 15% to 22% y 2025 and this will cause a shrink of the working-age population of over 50 million people by
2050 and even if this process will slow at some point almost certainly, there is yet no indication that we will reach that point soon. Both population decline and ageing arise from two irreversible changes in human society. Life expectancy increased progressively during the XXth century and is about 78 years today, and family size has fallen drastically to about 2 children or less.
In Europe, while fertility has dropped to unprecedentedly low levels, the ageing of population is reaching particularly alarming proportions. In some countries, fertility has dropped so much that mortality rates are even higher than birth rates, resulting in a population decline. To conduct our study of the impact of immigration on population ageing we will need some macroeconomic data such as the Potential Support Ratio
(PSR), also called “dependency ratio”, corresponds to the relation between the proportion in working-age group (15-64) and the population of 65 years or older. According to the evolution of the PSR, some necessary increase of the
European population will be rather large, others gigantic. For instance, to maintain constant the European Union population (337 million people) by 2050 we will need nearly 1 million new immigrants per year (47 million y 2050). However, to keep working-age population we will require almost 1.8 million immigrants per year, or 80 million by 2050. If we consider now the necessity to keep the potential support ratio at todayʼs level, we will need more than 16 million
Population ageing took place, without any exception, in all industrialized countries all along the XXth century. Initially it was not a problem for European societies because it had a positive effect on economic growth. Today, Eurostat estimates that the over 64 population is very likely to rise from 15% to 22% y 2025 and this will cause a shrink of the working-age population of over 50 million people by
2050 and even if this process will slow at some point almost certainly, there is yet no indication that we will reach that point soon. Both population decline and ageing arise from two irreversible changes in human society. Life expectancy increased progressively during the XXth century and is about 78 years today, and family size has fallen drastically to about 2 children or less.
In Europe, while fertility has dropped to unprecedentedly low levels, the ageing of population is reaching particularly alarming proportions. In some countries, fertility has dropped so much that mortality rates are even higher than birth rates, resulting in a population decline. To conduct our study of the impact of immigration on population ageing we will need some macroeconomic data such as the Potential Support Ratio
(PSR), also called “dependency ratio”, corresponds to the relation between the proportion in working-age group (15-64) and the population of 65 years or older. According to the evolution of the PSR, some necessary increase of the
European population will be rather large, others gigantic. For instance, to maintain constant the European Union population (337 million people) by 2050 we will need nearly 1 million new immigrants per year (47 million y 2050). However, to keep working-age population we will require almost 1.8 million immigrants per year, or 80 million by 2050. If we consider now the necessity to keep the potential support ratio at todayʼs level, we will need more than 16 million