Non Performing Loans and Terms of Credit of Public Sector Banks in India-- an Empirical Assessment
Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers Vol. 24, No. 3, Winter 2003
Non-Performing Loans and Terms of Credit of Public Sector Banks in India: An Empirical Assessment
Rajiv Ranjan and Sarat Chandra Dhal*
This paper explores an empirical approach to the analysis of commercial banks' nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the Indian context. The empirical analysis evaluates as to how banks’ non-performing loans are influenced by three major sets of economic and financial factors, i.e., terms of credit, bank size induced risk preferences and macroeconomic shocks. The empirical results from panel regression models suggest that terms of credit variables have significant effect on the banks' non-performing loans in the presence of bank size induced risk preferences and macroeconomic shocks. Moreover, alternative measures of bank size could give rise to differential impact on bank's non-performing loans. In regard to terms of credit variables, changes in the cost of credit in terms of expectation of higher interest rate induce rise in NPAs. On the other hand, factors like horizon of maturity of credit, better credit culture, favorable macroeconomic and business conditions lead to lowering of NPAs. Business cycle may have differential implications adducing to differential response of borrowers and lenders. JEL Classification : G21, E51, G11, C23 Key Words : Bank credit, non-performing loans, terms of credit, panel regression.
Introduction Financial stability is considered as sine qua non of sustained and rapid economic progress. Among various indicators of financial stability, banks’ non-performing loan assumes critical importance since it reflects on the asset quality, credit risk and efficiency in the allocation of resources to productive sectors. A common perspective is that the problem of banks’ non-performing loans is ascribed to political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental
* Rajiv Ranjan is Director and Sarat Chandra Dhal is Assistant Adviser in
Non-Performing Loans and Terms of Credit of Public Sector Banks in India: An Empirical Assessment
Rajiv Ranjan and Sarat Chandra Dhal*
This paper explores an empirical approach to the analysis of commercial banks' nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the Indian context. The empirical analysis evaluates as to how banks’ non-performing loans are influenced by three major sets of economic and financial factors, i.e., terms of credit, bank size induced risk preferences and macroeconomic shocks. The empirical results from panel regression models suggest that terms of credit variables have significant effect on the banks' non-performing loans in the presence of bank size induced risk preferences and macroeconomic shocks. Moreover, alternative measures of bank size could give rise to differential impact on bank's non-performing loans. In regard to terms of credit variables, changes in the cost of credit in terms of expectation of higher interest rate induce rise in NPAs. On the other hand, factors like horizon of maturity of credit, better credit culture, favorable macroeconomic and business conditions lead to lowering of NPAs. Business cycle may have differential implications adducing to differential response of borrowers and lenders. JEL Classification : G21, E51, G11, C23 Key Words : Bank credit, non-performing loans, terms of credit, panel regression.
Introduction Financial stability is considered as sine qua non of sustained and rapid economic progress. Among various indicators of financial stability, banks’ non-performing loan assumes critical importance since it reflects on the asset quality, credit risk and efficiency in the allocation of resources to productive sectors. A common perspective is that the problem of banks’ non-performing loans is ascribed to political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental
* Rajiv Ranjan is Director and Sarat Chandra Dhal is Assistant Adviser in