Opinion Poll on the Newly Introduced Modern Transportation System (Lagos State Bus Rapid Transit)

OPINION POLL ON THE NEWLY INTRODUCED MODERN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
(LAGOS STATE BUS RAPID TRANSIT)

SUBMITTED BY

BAKARE OLUWEFEMI OLATUNJI
P/HD/07/3740124

TO

THE DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS
SCHOOL OF SCIENCE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR THE HIGHER NATIONAL DIPLOMA IN STATISTICS

A SEMINAR SUPERVISED BY
MR. T. AKINSANYA
YABA COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY

JULY 2011

ABSTRACT

The research work focus on the opinion poll on the newly introduced modern transportation system in Lagos state (Bus Rapid Transit). It goes further state how it has significant effect on the commuter’s mobility in the states. Primary data and secondary data were adopted as a means of data collection with chi-square test for statistical analysis. We therefore recommend that Lagos state and its agencies should improve more on the rehabilization of roads, good management of port hole and construction of new road and people of good conducts and manner should be employ within the official.

INTRODUCTION

Lagos is considered to be the sixth largest city and one of the most rapidly urbanizing metropolitan areas of the world. It was variously estimated population at between 12.5 and 15 million and an annual growth rate of newly 6%. It is also one of the world mega cities.
Geographically, the metropolitan area of Lagos is also fast spreading, now extending beyond the borders of Lagos state into the neighboring Ogun State.( Journal of Lagos BRT-lite Evaluation report, January 2009, PG1). Commuters’ trips are therefore growth both in length and number.
This rapid urbanization, combine with inadequate or poorly extended transportation problems in Lagos metropolis. This include increasing traffic congestion; worsening state of disrepair of roads; deteriorating physical attractiveness and comfort of road-based public transport; sky rocketing transport fares; absence of effective rail and water mass transit transport; rising levels of road accidents and increasing rate of traffic-related emission and atmospheric pollution; and the growing menace of okada(motorcycle) transporters and area boys.

Reviewing the formal Bus public transport operation in Lagos is characterized by high levels of fragmentation and indiscipline as a result of no fewer than 100,000 different types of buses owned almost exclusively by individuals, one or two each, which they drive themselves or hire out to drivers on a daily rental basis.

Also, before the implementation of the bus, Rapid Transit (BRT) system, the state had witnessed the used of different types of vehicles for public transportation. In the late 1960’s and 70’s the Bolekajas( wooden lorries used for carrying goods and passengers) were in vogue.
At the twilight of that decade, the Molues (midi buses) became the in-thing. Following the reformation of the bus system, the Lagos State Transportation Cooperation (LSTC) but soon ran aground due to poor management.

Therefore, LAMATA is an acronomyns of Lagos Area Metropolitan Transportation authority was designed to formulate and implement programmes/project and policies for the overall improvement of public transportation systems, and orderly and structure development the mass transit system, among others. Its other functions includes carrying out the comprehensive maintenance of roads and related infrastructure, inventory and transportation network, continuous evaluation of road network status, overall improvement in traffic engineering and social opportunities.

The BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) was one of the social development projects designed on thus policy frame work.
The BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) is a transport option, which relies on the use of dedicated ‘interference’ from segregation lanes to guarantee fast and reliable bus travel. It is a road way- based rapid transit system that looks and behaves like a subway, offering high capacity rapid transit services but on dedicated lanes or City Street. BRT does not require expensive tracks like the rails system and other supporting infrastructure. It takes less time to construct and implement because in most cases, the existing road is restructured.
The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) takes care of most of the problems of the other systems: * It will reduce traffic congestion, improve air quality and meet the mobility needs particularly of the less privilege and poor masses of the Lagos metropolis. * It is a roadway-based system subway attributes, offering high capacity rapid transit services but on dedicated lanes or city streets.
First phase of the Lagos BRT to run from Mile 12 through Ikorodu and Funsho Williams avenue up to CMS is schedules to start operation by November 2007.
It is projected that the system will carry up to 10,000 passengers per direction per hour during peak travel hours.
The LAMATA BRT corridor is about 22 kilometers in length.
Two operators, NURWT Cooparation and LAGBUS a Lagos state Government owned Asset Management Company are contributing about 180 high capacity buses for the implementation of the first phase mile 12 to CMS BRT lite system.
LAMATA has in place a new set of the regulation to guide the operations of the BRT.
The BRT would run 16-hours operations running from 6:00am to 10:00pm, fifteen monitoring officers would be in charge of daily operational activities on the corridor.
A private towing provider manages towing services on the corridor.
A modern bus depot with of -the-art facilities that can accommodate about 100 buses is situated at the Ojota axis of the corridor.
There are three bus terminals along the corridor at Mile 12, Moshalashi and CMS. The CMS terminal is designed to integrate with other transport modes of rail and ferry which the Lagos State Government is soon to implement.
The LAMATA bus depot at Ojota showing: 3 No 33,000litre underground Gas tank, 2 Nos generating sets, overhead water tanks, with bore holes, state-of-the art mechanics workshop.
One of the components of the LAMATA BRT scheme is securities and a strong factor in ensuring this is the lighting up of the entire corridor on both side to ensure safety of lives and property.
To ensure the reliability of the lights, LAMATA has provided 10 Nos of 100kva generators and transformers as alternatively power supply to the power holding company of Nigeria (PHCN).
In other to maximize cost of running the power system, LAMATA is considering a proposal for the installation of solar pokeweed streetlights along the corridor in the nearest future.
LAMATA is the main instrument for transforming the State Transportation System through a group of committed and credible professional working as a team to facilitate methods in its operations, thereby adding valve to the quality of life.
The project (LAMATA BRT) will achieve its vision and mission through 9 identified core valves which are going to be its propelling principles: i. Commitment ii. Professionalism iii. Credibility iv. Transparency v. Pro-activeness vi. Passion vii. Fairness viii. Confidentiality ix. Flexibility

AIMS OF THE STUDY

i. To determine whether or not the newly introduced modern transportation system has significant effect on the commuter mobility ii. To make recommendation for the eradication of huge public predicament of Lagos state.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
This study is to show the effect of BRT on the transportation system of Lagos State. It will go a long way to help future researches and students alike who have interest in this topic.
There will also be an analysis of the problem areas, which may hinder efficient performance and suggestions, will be made on probable solutions with a view of making useful recommendation that can improve productivity of BRT in Lagos State.

SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
Since the topic under consideration is a very wide one, particular references will be made to only commuters at a particular time interval in other to alleviate cumbrous nature of the study.
The following limitation becomes inevitable in the course of conducting the study: i. Not all the categories of people to be contacted and the willingness to express their opinion. ii. The collection of the questionnaire may pose some problems because some of the respondents may return the questionnaire in good time and some may not at all. iii. Time involved in the study may also affect the quality of information to be contained in the research. The major constraints includes: Observing to much of protocols, transportation cost, contingency cost such as repeated call/visit to the 1st BRT administrative block at ketu, materials to be used and time limits due to the lack of adequate fund.
This research work could not be expected further but avenues for further research to go beyond this scope.

METHODOLOGY

In the course of this research work, the statistical test used is chi-square test. The chi-square distribution with the appropriate degree of freedom provides a good approximation to the sampling distribution of Pearson’s chi-square when the null hypothesis is true, and the following conditions are met: * Each observation is independent of all the other i.e one observation per subject * No more than 20% of the expected counts are less than 5 and all individual expected counts are 1 or greater. * For 2x2 tables; all expected frequencies should be 10 or greater, if any expected frequencies are less than 10, but greater than or equal to 5, some author suggest that Yates correction for continuity should be applied. This is done by subtracting 0.5 from the absolute value of (O-E) before squaring.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Survey design was employ in this research study. This is because survey design is the only research design that enables the researcher to observe what is happening to sample object or variables without attempt to manipulate or control them. Therefore, data was collected from the commuters as to how the BRT as affected the transportation system of Lagos State and if it has effect on their daily running cost.
Also, explanatory design is adopted among the three types of survey which is geared toward collection of data to answer research question or explains the relationship among variables.

POPULATION OF THE STUDY

Statisticians define population as the whole set of objects or individual about which a statistical investigation is carried. Therefore, in this research a population is made up of all conceivable element, subject or observation relating to BRT commuters. The BRT commuters at the corridor/terminal are part of the elements or subject that make up the population, because they are the one that are saddled with responsibility of seen the effectiveness of BRT and to rise to the required information. They are therefore in a best position to give experience and personal opinion (data) on the subject refers.

SAMPLE DESIGN AND PROCEDURES

A total examination of the population of this study list above is rigorous, timely and money consuming. A study of a few of the elements is believed to give research sufficient knowledge of what obtains in the entire population. The process of drawing this few elements from the entire population are called.
In this study, simple random sampling of the probability methods for the population of interest and type of study envisaged.
The sample size was selected in such a way that complexity is avoided and realistic sample are examined to make decision.
In this study 500 commuters are explored, hence the sample size is limited to the commuters at a particular time interval.

DATA COLLECTION INTRUSMENT

Data collection instrument are the device used for collection of data or measuring the variable which are used for answering research question and for testing study hypothesis. To achieve the objective of this study, Primary data was collected from the source. Questionnaire was designed to allow commuters to provide objective information for the research work.
Secondary data used in this research was collected from different sources, like textbook, journal of Lagos Metropolitan Area Authority (LAMATA), internet and personal consult.

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANANLYSIS

In this section, an attempt will be made to analyses, classify and interpret the response accordingly.

CLASSIFICATIONS OF RESPONSES

QUESTIONNAIRE | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | Returned and Valid | 350 | 70% | Returned but not Valid | 100 | 20% | Not Returned | 50 | 10% | Total | 500 | 100% |

From the table above, the respondents are classified according to the way they returned their questionnaire. Out of the 500 questionnaire administered, only 70% was returned and valid, 20% questionnaire was returned but not valid while the remaining 10% questionnaire were not returned.

Data Analysis
The data gathered from respondent would be presented in a tabular from and analysis.

Profile Analysis OPTION | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | Male | 154 | 44% | Female | 196 | 56% | Total | 350 | 100% |

From the table above 44% respondent were male gender while 56% respondent were female gender.

Age bracket OPTION | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | 18-25 years | 44 | 12.6% | 26-35years | 120 | 34.3% | 36-45years | 89 | 25.4% | 46-55years | 64 | 18.3% | 56 and Above | 33 | 9.4% | Total | 350 | 100% |

From the table above 12.6% respondents represent the age within 18-25 years, 34.3% respondents represent the age within 26-35years, 25.4% respondent represent the age within 36-45years, 18.3% respondent represent the age within 46-55years, while 9.4% respondent represent the age within 56 and above.

Occupational OPTION | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | Student | 29 | 8.3% | Trader/Business | 145 | 41.4% | Civil servant | 157 | 44.9% | Other | 19 | 5.4% | Total | 350 | 100% |

From the table above, 8.3% respondent were students, 41.4% respondent were Trade/Business, 44.9% respondent were Civil servant, while 5.4% were Other Occupation.
3.2 Substantive Data Analysis

How often do you ride on BRT Buses OPTION | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | Daily | 322 | 92% | 3days or less | 19 | 5.4% | Occasionally | 9 | 2.6% | Total | 350 | 100% |

From the table above, 92% respondent rides on BRT buses daily, 5.4% respondent rides on BRT buses 3day or less, while 2.6% rides on BRT buses occasionally.

How would you rate infastruction provide at the terminal and shelters. OPTION | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | Satisfied | 297 | 85% | Dissatisfied | 35 | 10% | Delighted | 18 | 5% | Neither | 0 | 0% | Total | 350 | 100% |

From the table above, 85% respondents satisfied to the rate infrastructure provided at the terminal shelter, 10% respondents dissatisfied, and 5% respondents delighted to the same statement.

How would you rate professionalism of the BRT Driver. OPTION | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | Satisfied | 118 | 33.7% | Dissatisfied | 106 | 30.3% | Delighted | 114 | 32.6% | Neither | 12 | 3.4% | Total | 350 | 100% |

From the table above, 33.7% respondents satisfied with rate of the professionalism of the BRT drivers, 30.3% respondents dissatisfied, 32.6% respondents delighted, while 3.4% respondents neither to the same statement.

How would you rate BRT crew courtesy displayed OPTION | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | Satisfied | 182 | 52% | Dissatisfied | 116 | 33.1% | Delighted | 52 | 14.9% | Neither | 0 | 0% | Total | 350 | 100% |

From the table above, 52% respondents satisfied with the level of courtesy display by the BRT crew, 33.1% respondents dissatisfied, while 14.9% respondents delighted with the same statement above.

How would you rate BRT ticketing system OPTION | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | Satisfied | 183 | 52.3% | Dissatisfied | 9 | 2.6% | Delighted | 158 | 45.1% | Neither | 0 | 0% | Total | 350 | 100% |

From the table above, 52.3% respondents satisfied that rate of the BRT ticketing system, 2.6% respondents dissatisfied, while 45.1.9% respondents delighted with the same statement above.

How would you rate the comfortability of BRT buses to that of the commercial buses. OPTION | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | Satisfied | 201 | 57.4% | Dissatisfied | 16 | 4.6% | Delighted | 127 | 36.3% | Neither | 6 | 1.7% | Total | 350 | 100% |

From the table above, 57.4% respondents satisfied that the comfortability of BRT to that of commercial Buses, 4.6% respondents dissatisfied,36.3% respondents delighted, while 1.7% respondents neither to the same above.

BRT has make effect on daily running/ transaction cost OPTION | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | Strongly Agree | 152 | 43.4% | Agree | 98 | 28% | Strongly Disagree | 32 | 15.1% | Disagree | 53 | 9.1% | Undecided | 15 | 4.3% | Total | 350 | 100% |

From the table above, 43.4% respondents Strongly agree that BRT buses had effect on daily running/ transaction cost, 28% respondents Agree,15.1% respondents Strongly Disagree, 9.1% respondents Disagree, while 4.3% respondents undecided to the same above.

Has BRT makes mobility easier, faster, reliable and affordable OPTION | FREQUENCY | PERCENTAGES | Strongly Agree | 108 | 30.8% | Agree | 191 | 54.6% | Strongly Disagree | 8 | 2.4% | Disagree | 25 | 7.1% | Undecided | 18 | 5.1% | Total | 350 | 100% |

From the table above, 30.8% respondents Strongly agree that BRT buses make mobility easier, faster, reliable and affordable, 54.6% respondents Agree,2.4% respondents Strongly Disagree, 7.1% respondents Disagree, while 5.1% respondents undecided to the same above.

TEST OF HYPOTHESIS
That data already presented and analyzed with the test statistic stated below: χ2 = Σ (O-E)2 E
Where χ2= Chi-square O = observed frequencies E = Expected frequencies (O-E)2 = The deviation (O-E)2 = Deviation square and weighed.

RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

Ho: The Lagos Bus Rapid Transit does not have significant effect on Lagos state transportation system.

H1: The Lagos Bus Rapid Transit has significant effect on Lagos state transportation system.

DECISION
Chi-square test is significant (Pvalue .000 is less than level of significant 0.05); we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the Lagos Bus Rapid Transit has significant effect on Lagos state transportation system.

FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
It is observed from the analysis, since Pvalue 0.0% have expected frequencies < 0.05, and we concluded that the Lagos Bus Rapid Transit has significant effect on the Lagos state Transportation system. This therefore supports the research findings of the evaluation report published by Integrated Transportation Planning Limited and IBIS Transportation Consultants Limited for LAMATA, January 2009.

CONCLUSION
The summary of the research work from the above conclusion, since the Pvalue (0.0%) have expected frequencies of how often the riders on Lagos Bus Rapid Transit, daily running cost, comfotability and reliability less than 5%, it implies that the Lagos Bus Rapid Transit has significant effect. Which means the Lagos Bus Rapid Transit have effect on the transportation system of Lagos State.

RECOMMENDATION
Since the newly introduced modern transportation system (Bus Rapid Transit) has significant effect, we therefore recommend that: i. Lagos state government and its agencies should improve more on the rehabilization of roads. ii. Construction of new roads and port holes management which will decongest most of the major roads. iii. People of good manners and trustworthy character should be employed with the BRT officials. iv. Further research and day to day evaluation should be carried on this subject refers so as either refutes or verified the result hereby obtained.

REFERENCE
Agresti, A. (1990) Categorical Data Analysis New York: Wiley.
Hoel, Paul G. (1976). Elementary Statistics (4th Edition). New York: Wiley Chapter 10.
Yates, D., Mccabe G. (1999). The Practice of Statistics (1st Edition) New York: W. H. Freeman.
Journal of Lagos Indicator Bumper Edition, October/November 2009, Vol.2 No.11 & 12, Pg 120
Journal of Lagos BRT-Lite Evaluation Report, January 2009, Pg 1, Pg 9-11, Pg 31-34
Journal of Unveiling & Launching of the BRT-Lite system March 17, 2008, Pg 13-15, Pg 34-38
Mobereola, D.(2009) “Lagos BRT rated 3rd Worldwide”, Journal of Newsletter, Vol.1 No.2(Dec. 2009).
^dailytimes.com.ng/article/molue-operators-want-key-brt
^math.hws.edu/jaramath/ryan/chisquare.html.
^http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=552861