Population in transition

1. Populations in Transition

1.1 – Population Change

Explain population trends and patterns in births and fertility in contrasting regions of the world
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)= total number of births
 The CBR does not take into account the age and sex structure of a population.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)= Average number of children born to a women in her lifetime
Case Studies:
Higher fertility in LEDC’s, resulting in youthful populations [2nd and 3rd stage of demographic transition model] ie. Early expanding/late expanding
Replacement level for fertility is 2.1. World’s current: 2.56
 Lower fertility in MEDC’s, results in an ageing population [4th and 5th stage of demographic transition model] ie. Low stationery/declining
Lower fertility rate empowers women

Factors affecting birth rates

Cultural/ethic/religious status
Cultural status impacts the ability of women to make decisions about their contraception and thus, their fertility rate
Use of contraception is 28% in Africa, compared to 73% in Europe
Religion: the Philippines government is catholic and does not provide family planning services for women within government hospitals and clinics, TFR is 3, above replacement
Philippines is compared to Poland, which is also religiously conservative but has a TFR of 1.27, as a result of women being empowered and wanting to finish their education first
Ethnic status: Indigenous fertility in SA is 2.5, compared to rest of Australia – 1.8. Ethnic status determines access to healthcare/contraception, also determines empowerment of women.
Cultural status: Kerala Vs. Uttar Pradesh; in Kerala women are empowered and educated, as a result TFR is 2, as opposed to 2.6. In Uttar Pradesh fertility is 3.8

Education
Education empowers women to be employed, pulling them out of the “poverty trap”, results in women making more informed decisions about their fertility
Iran’s fertility dropped from 7 to 2 as literacy rose from 10% to 90%
Amount of education also changes TFR, in Guatemala TFR dropped from 7.1, 5.1, 2.6 as women have no, primary or secondary education
Extra year of female schooling reduces fertility by 5-10%
In MEDC’s, education encourages material ambition, thus women have fewer children
TFR in European countries remains below replacement level, fertility rate is over 95%
In France TFR is 1.9, 80% of women between 25 and 49 have jobs

Type of residence
Determines access to medical facilities and often, awareness of birth control measures: generally TFR is highest in rural areas due to the belief of children serving the purpose as “workers”
Burkina Faso: Rural, slum and non slum TFR is 6.5, 3.5 and 3
Highest TFR of all states is Western Australia, 2.2: Western Australia is one of the most rural states

Economic status
In MEDC’s, cost of child bearing is large, tends to discourage families from giving birth to children. In LEDC’s, as a result of this, often families with more children tend to have a lower socio economic status
Cost of bringing up a children in UK is 186 000 pounds, and rising. Only including state education
Little government assistance to help with children eg. In Italy only 3.8% of GDP on childcare, compared to EU average 8%, as s result women now represent 47% of the workforce, where they represented 22% ten years ago
In LEDC’s, lower economic status = more children = less use of contraception
In Kenya, half all girls give birth by 19, only 19% use contraception, GDP is $780

MAIN TREND  more education = less fertility

Explain natural increase and mortality, and life expectancy in contrasting regions of the world.

Crude Death Rate (CDR)= the number of deaths a year per 1000 people
 Influenced by indigenous inhabitants or an ageing population, sometimes gives an unexplainable answer unrelated to the development of the country
 Mortality rate are an indicator of the quality of life in a country. Generally MEDC’s have lower mortality rates than LEDC’s.

Natural Increase= crude birth rate minus the crude death rate
Factors affecting mortality:
Age
Gender
Location
Type of residence
Occupation and income
Literacy
Medical facilities
Natural increase is a result of a naturally growing population without the effects of migration and mortality rates.
Niger (20.19)
• 85% of the total population (or 13 010 314 based on 2009 census estimate of 15 306 252) live in geographic isolation
• Healthcare outlets that are available have very high monetary fees and/or blood donations required
• 2/3 of all births are homebirths, no trained healthcare worker
• In 2004, ratio of physicians to population and nurses to population were, respectively:
- 3:100 000
- 22: 100 000
• 0.8% (60 000) of population in 2007 tested positive to HIV/AIDS
- 65% (39 000) AIDS orphans in reproductive prime
- 33% of these are women aged 15+

Case Studies:
Japan (MEDC): Ageing population, CDR=8.53
India (LEDC): Growing Population, CDR=7.6

Australia (MEDC): indigenous average income= $278 a week Other Australians average income= $473 a week

Analyze population pyramids

Low life expectancy, high mortality rates-lack of health care, growing population, high fertility rate-developing nation, higher male population.

More equality in each gender, vast decreases after 60 years old-low life expectancy, lower fertility rates due to expansion of education.

Large number of people over 70-developed country with high standard of living, most populous age from the ‘baby boomers’, and high numbers from baby boomers children, fertility rate decreasing-smaller families and high female status

Further decreasing population due to low fertility rates, most populous age group in 75-79 age group- ageing population

Explain population momentum and its impact of population projections

In some places the TFR is declining but there is a lag period before the rate of natural increase declines. This is because children and youths who have been born have not yet reached childbearing age. This gives the population momentum to continue growing. The population momentum factor (PMF) is calculated by multiplying crude birth rate with average life expectancy. A PMF of 1 indicates natural increase is not contributing to growth. A PMF greater than 1 means positive momentum and growth in the future.
Eg. Japan is 0.7 and Niger is 2.6.

1.2 – Responses to high and low fertility

Explain dependency and ageing ratios

The dependency ratio is an indicator of how many non-working aged people there are compared to every 100 working aged people.

It indicates whether the working aged group is big enough to support the non-working aged. If the answer is over 100 then it means there is less working aged people than not, and it is very likely that the country is developing.
Governments use to predict trends in the work force and what policies need to be introduced
This formula does not account for the unemployed. Sometimes a country can be less developed than this formula indicates because of large unemployment numbers.

Examine the impacts of youthful and ageing populations

An ageing population is one with a very large number of retired elders compared to the amount of children and adults. This results in a decreasing population due to the very small number of children entering child-bearing age
A youthful population is one with a very large population of young people compared to adults. This results in a growing population because of the large number of people that will be entering the child-bearing age.

Evaluate examples of a pro-natalist policy and an anti-natalist policy

A pro-natalist policy is one that promotes child birth
A anti-natalist policy is one that discourages high fertility rates

Case Studies:
Pro-natalist-
France – calibrated tax policy, meaning that the more children had, the less tax paid by the family, monthly allowance of 180 pounds for families with more than three children, rises when the children reach 11, 30% reductions on trains and half price on metro, free entrance to swimming pools and 150 pounds a year towards extra curricular arts and sports [families with three children]
Singapore anti-natalist phase from 1966 to 1982; offered incentives – abortion was liberalized and able to be carried out in both government and private clinics, voluntary sterilization was legalized with priority primary school registration for sterilized parents and reimbursed delivery fees. Offered disincentives – married couples who had more than two children faced delivery fee increases and no paid maternity leave.
Anti-natalist- China
Youthful populations are usually within developing countries. Impacts include poverty through a lack in access to income, resources, healthcare etc. Anti natalist policy used to reduce birth rate
Worked on incentive/punishment system: incentive was that with one child the family was given free education, priority housing and other family benefit, but at the birth of a second child these benefits were lost, in addition to heavy fines, forced abortions and threats of sterilization [more so in the earlier years of the policy]
Legal age of marriage was increased
Family planning education increased, now 80% of women use contraception
Exceptions to the one child policy in outer provinces, more than one child was allowed for farming purposes

1.3- Movement responses- migration

Migration: the movement of people, involving a permanent or temporary change of residence, can be long term or short term.
Types of migration:
Long Term –
Internal: within a country, for reasons such as urban depopulation [eg. large cities in Britain]
External: voluntary [eg. Britons to Australia] and forced [eg. African slaves to America]
Short Term –
Seasonal – for several months [eg. Nomadic herders in West Africa], tourists, for employment [eg. fruit pickers]
Temporary – guest workers [eg. Mexicans in California] and for employment

Discuss the causes of migrations, both forced and voluntary.

Causes
Forced
War
Natural disasters
Low standard of living
Political unrest

Voluntary
Personal choice
Occupation – expat
Retirement

Impact
Push Factors
Pull Factors
Political
 Instability eg. Congo [ranked 180th on the Corruption Perception Index]
 Ethnic/religious eg. persecution by the Taliban in Afghanistan
 War eg. Sri Lanka, during the civil war
 Lack of government services
Stability, government, democracy, peace.

Social
 Boredom
 Changing community structure
Friends/family, False perception [“bright lights”]
Economic
 Lack of employment eg. 90% unemployment rate in Zimbabwe
Employment opportunities

Environmental
 Destruction – manmade/natural eg. earthquake in Haiti
 Drought/famine eg. 1984-85 famine in Ethiopia
 Overpopulation eg. China/India
 Underpopulation [causing a lack of resources]
Favourable climate, space, natural resources and good farm land.

Refugees: identified as forced migration and is usually international. A refugee is defined by the UNHCR as a person who, “owing to a well founded fear of being persecuted…is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail him/herself of the protection of that country”.
42 million people are displaced worldwide
15.2 million refugees, developing countries supporting 4/5ths
7 in 10 refugees in sub Saharan Africa reside in camps
Afghani and Iraqi refugees account for half of all UNHCR refugees

Evaluate internal (national) and international migrations in terms of their geographic (socio-economic, political and environmental) impacts at their origins and destinations.

destination: offshore processing has provided an economic strain on the Australian government, $1 billion in costs to maintain processing centers since 2001 has created a strain on diplomatic relations not only between Australia and Sri Lanka, but between Australia and Indonesia. influx of illegal “boat people” through media propoganda has created a stigma towards the refugee population international response to Australia’s human rights abuses through their dealing with the refugee situation has been negative many refugees represent unskilled population and therefore bring no economic benefit to Australia, may also seek government benefits eg. dole

origins: environmental impacts of carpet bombing in Sri Lanka [military technique imposed by LTTE] social impacts through creating a divide between the Sinhalese and Tamil populations international community has been exposed to the nature of the Sri Lankan government as being corrupt and outdated, resulting in a negative stigma cost and risk associated with boat travel fragmented families

Transmigration: is a program of planned migration to spread the population more evenly eg. Indonesia:
60% of the population lives in java, which only takes up 7% of area transmigration relieves food shortages and increases export production transmigration first began in by the Dutch settlers, was attempted again in 70’s and 80’s – not successful disadvantages of transmigration include: inadequate services/infrastructure, religious/cultural restrictions, people incapable of dealing with unfamiliar crops and new environments

Voluntary international migration [Australia]: Two main streams, skilled and family. Skilled stream accounts for 67% of all migration. Family stream accounts for 36%, majority being marriage visas.

Guest workers: migrants for the purposes of temporary employment eg. Polish workers in Britain guest workers take advantage of lax migration laws in EU
200 000 workers every year in Britain
80% of Polish workers are men

Advantages
Disadvantages
Home Country
• reduces pressure on jobs and local resources
• money may be sent back as remittances
• migrants may return with new skills
• workforce decays, skilled members leaving
• family fragmentation
Host Country
• migrants may fill skills shortages
• cheap labour
• cultural diversification
• puts a strain on resources
• can create cultural resentment

1.4- Gender and change
Examine gender inequalities in culture, status, education, birth ratios, health, employment, empowerment, life expectancy, family size, migration, legal rights, and land tenure.

Gender Empowerment Measure: evaluates the progress of women’s standing in political and social forums
Gender Related Development Index: measures the achievement of women, comparing the achievement between men and women

Inequalities in: culture: social customs force women into teenage marriages and early child bearing eg. India, particularly in Uttar Pradesh/Mumbai areas, women are sold with a dowry price and thus, considered a burden to their families. Reflected in GEM of 0.3. Government legislation also prevents women from inheriting land in some states. There is the attitude that it is not important to educate women, resulting in lower literacy rates 67% there is a culture of abuse against women, both in LEDC’s and MEDC’s one quarter to half of all women have suffered domestic abuse
60% of Pakistani women finish up being charged with adultery if they are raped
90% of women in India will be abused within their first year of marriage the issue of female circumcision still exists in Africa, particularly in Somalia where it is estimated close to 100% of girls are circumcised of the 26 countries in Africa, it is estimated that two million girls are circumcised annually many MEDC’s face the conflict between culture and women’s equality eg. in America, female circumcision has been legalized to prevent the same activity in an unsafe environment in France, the burqa has been banned

employment: men and women have different roles and responsibilities in their daily work, men’s work tends to have higher status [involving heavier, riskier, often manual labour] than women’s work. In MEDC’s this means that often women are paid a lot less than men for the same work. Also the idea of the “glass ceiling”. In LEDC’s it means that often the percentage of women in the workplace is low due to the attitude that the woman’s role is to stay at home in Australia, for every $1 earned by men, women only earn 84c only 12.5% of managerial positions in Great Britain are held by women, despite nearly half the workforce being occupied by women female economic activity growth in Burkina Faso is -4% as a result of women in LEDC’s having less access to employment, they are more prevalently those in poverty  70% of the world’s poorest people are female

education: less so in MEDC’s, but significantly so in LEDC’s, there is a growing difference in literacy of men and women. two thirds of the people living in the world that cannot read are female female literacy is 15.1% in Niger, compared to 47% for men
In Sub Saharan Africa, 20% fewer girls enrol in primary school than boys and a large proportion drop out early because they marry young education is universally recognised as the key to building equality as educated women are less vulnerable to abuse and more able to sustain their own source of income, gain control over their sexual lives and break free from the “poverty trap”

birth ratios: in LEDC’s, there is an evident “son preference”, resulting in the infanticide of young girls over 10 million female fetus’ have been aborted in India over the past 2 decades situation in India is emulated in China under the one child policy, there are now “missing girls” in the country’s population pyramid, sex ratio is now 120 girls for every 100 boys

status: women are severely underrepresented at all levels of decision marking, particularly national and regional levels. In MEDC’s, there is still a lack of women in the political system, whilst in LEDC’s, women are still discriminated against in areas of family law, inheritance, land ownership, citizenship and criminal law only 16 countries in the world have women’s representation in parliament over 25% women are barred from becoming chiefs in the Northern province and most of the east of Sierra Leone

health: women in LEDC’s do not have the necessary access ot healthcare, particularly when it comes to childbirth procedures, as is illustrated through the high rates of maternal mortality risk of maternal death is 1 in 7 in Niger and 1 in 8 in both Sierra Leone and Afghanistan in Sub Saharan Africa and India, less than 50% of births are supervised by a skilled health professional women are also given less access to food and as a result, a significant proportion of the female population is undernourished eg. Pakistan

family size: women are more empowered when they are able to be employed. Often a large family size can burden women, as is shown when high fertility rates are compared to GEM/GDI

Other things to keep in mind:
• Rwanda, has a policy of a 30% quota for women in parliament. As a result, Rwanda now has over 50% female representation in parliament, more than anywhere else in the world
• NGO’s in Burkina Faso are supporting low cost agricultural technology for female farmers, as well as education and vocational training – as a result 94% are now literate