Population Trends In Orange County
Orange County has seen its population grow older and more diverse since the turn of the millennium, a trend expected to continue for the foreseeable future. The county’s median age was 37.8 in 2016, 1.5 years older than the median age of 36.3 in 2010 and 4.5 years older than the median age of 33.3 in 2000. This trend is driven by two primary factors: the aging of the Baby Boomers, America’s second largest generation, a national trend that will have an especially significant impact on Orange County, and the pricing out of younger families in the county’s expensive housing market.
The aging of the county’s Baby Boomers has been accompanied by a decrease in the population of younger age groups, as seen in the following chart. County residents aged 15-19, for example, made up only 6.6 percent of the total population in 2016, 0.5 percent less than in 2012; the percentage of residents aged 20-24 decreased by 0.5 percent during the same period. At the same time, residents aged 65 made up 12.3 percent in 2012 and has since increased to 14.0 percent in 2016. The county’s high home and rental prices have played a major role in this shift by encouraging many young people – especially those already burdened by student debt – to move to more affordable areas. …show more content…
The graph on the following page shows one major impact of this trend, rapid declines in K-12 enrollment.
The California Department of Finance estimates that K-12 enrollment will decrease from 492,246 in 2015-2016 to 445,238 in the 2025-2026 school year, a reduction of approximately 47,000 students or 9.5 percent. This trend of rapid aging in place could have disastrous consequences for Orange County because it threatens one of its main competitive advantages, a deep talent pool. An aging population combined with lower amounts of working age residents could have an especially profound impact on the Healthcare industry, as aging residents will require Healthcare services that employers may not have enough workers to
provide.
The aging of the county’s Baby Boomers has been accompanied by a decrease in the population of younger age groups, as seen in the following chart. County residents aged 15-19, for example, made up only 6.6 percent of the total population in 2016, 0.5 percent less than in 2012; the percentage of residents aged 20-24 decreased by 0.5 percent during the same period. At the same time, residents aged 65 made up 12.3 percent in 2012 and has since increased to 14.0 percent in 2016. The county’s high home and rental prices have played a major role in this shift by encouraging many young people – especially those already burdened by student debt – to move to more affordable areas. …show more content…
The graph on the following page shows one major impact of this trend, rapid declines in K-12 enrollment.
The California Department of Finance estimates that K-12 enrollment will decrease from 492,246 in 2015-2016 to 445,238 in the 2025-2026 school year, a reduction of approximately 47,000 students or 9.5 percent. This trend of rapid aging in place could have disastrous consequences for Orange County because it threatens one of its main competitive advantages, a deep talent pool. An aging population combined with lower amounts of working age residents could have an especially profound impact on the Healthcare industry, as aging residents will require Healthcare services that employers may not have enough workers to
provide.