Social Simulation: Evolution Of Religion And War
SOCIAL SIMULATION | Evolution of Religion and War | | An experimental model based on statistics and analysis has been created to simulate a real-life society for the purpose of observing and analyzing its behaviours and patterns and correlating them with real-world scenarios |
Abstract
The aim of this project is to conduct social experiments in a life-like simulation environment. By developing complex artificial intelligence models for all the different people present in the sample space, and by efficiently integrating concepts related to the study subject, we can simulate the actual evolution of the concept as well as how it affects people in real-life situations.
The project has been carried out through a Python script which defines …show more content…
the environment, the people present in the environment along with their intelligence models and the conditions necessary for the given concept to form as well as the conditions necessary for it to evolve. The simulation is then left for a pre-defined time interval to see how the scenario develops while giving helpful information every time something important occurs.
This experiment simulates two concepts – War and Evolution of Religion.
The simulations developed are expected to replicate real-life scenarios with reasonable accuracy. They will help understand the driving force behind such social changes and will also bring out various other factors that lead to differences between the developed models and real-life cities. Once the simulation becomes fairly accurate, it can also be used to predict other changes that tend to accompany such social segregation patterns.
Table of Contents Certificate 2 Acknowledgements 3 Abstract 4 1 Introduction 7 1.1 Sociological Concepts 7 1.1.1 War 7 1.1.2 Evolution of Religion 7 1.2 Scope and Expectations 8 2 The Entities: Religion 9 2.1 The World 9 2.2 Industries and Shops 10 2.3 Houses 10 2.4 Religious Societies 10 2.5 Monuments 11 2.6 People 11 2.7 Place of Worship 12 3 Behaviours and Functions: Religion 13 3.1 World Behaviour 13 3.1.1 Definition 13 3.1.2 Timeline 13 3.1.3 Land Prices 13 3.1.4 Name Generation 13 3.2 People Behaviour 13 3.2.1 Creation 14 3.2.1.1 Immigration 14 3.2.1.2 Birth and Schooling 14 3.2.2 Choosing Religions 14 3.2.3 Joining Societies 14 3.2.4 Job Searches 14 3.2.5 Housing 14 3.2.6 Relationships 15 3.2.7 Marriage 15 3.2.8 Wealth Status 16 3.2.9 Death 16 3.2.10 Lifecycle 16 4 The Entities: War 17 4.1 The World 17 4.2 General 17 4.3 People 18 5 Behaviours and Functions: War 19 5.1 World Behaviour 19 5.1.1 Definition 19 5.1.2 Timeline 19 5.1.3 Name Generation 19 5.2 General Behaviour 19 5.2.1 Creation 19 5.2.2 Growth 19 5.2.3 Strategy 20 5.2.3.1 Expected Gain 20 5.2.4 Death 20 5.3 People Behaviour 20 5.3.1 Creation 20 5.3.2 Growth 21 5.3.3 Requirements 21 5.3.4 Death 21 5.4 Level One War 21 5.4.1 Definition 21 5.4.2 Description and Rationale 21 5.4.3 Case Table 22 5.5 Level Two War 22 5.5.1 Definition 22 5.5.2 Description and Rationale 22 5.6 Nuclear War 23 5.6.1 Definition 23 5.6.2 Description and Rationale 23 6 Results 24 6.1 Religion 24 6.2 War 25 7 References 27
Introduction
Sociological Concepts
This experiment will simulate two concepts – 1.1.1 War
War is a behaviour pattern exhibited by many primate species including man, and also found in many ant species. The primary feature of this behaviour pattern is a certain state of organized violent conflict that is engaged in between two or more separate social entities. Such a conflict is always an attempt at altering either the psychological hierarchy or the material hierarchy of domination or equality between two or more groups. In all cases, at least one participant (group) in the conflict perceives the need to either psychologically or materially dominate the other participant.
Amongst humans, the perceived need for domination often arises from the belief that an essential ideology or resource is somehow either so incompatible or so scarce as to threaten the fundamental existence of the one group experiencing the need to dominate the other group.
The simulation begins with existing civilizations with different characteristics. Complex artificial intelligence models have been developed for agents, who in this case are the people living in different civilizations. Agents based in a particular civilization collectively react to changes in environment variables. Via random interaction of people and civilizations a state of conflict has been achieved. This simulation will attempt to match as accurately as possible the simulated state of war with real-life situations and optimization problems. By means of this simulation several key aspects can be analyzed namely: 1 Motives of the war 2 War strategies 3 Consequences and results of the war 1.1.2 Evolution of Religion
A religion is a set of beliefs concerning the cause, nature, and purpose of the universe, especially when considered as the creation of a supernatural agency or agencies, usually involving devotional and ritual observances, and often containing a moral code governing the conduct of human affairs.
Aspects of religion include narrative, symbolism, beliefs, and practices that are supposed to give meaning to the practitioner 's experiences of life. Whether the meaning centres on a deity or deities, or an ultimate truth, religion is commonly identified by the practitioner 's prayer, ritual, meditation, music and art, among other things, and is often interwoven with society and politics. The development of religion has taken many forms in various cultures, with continental differences.
This simulation begins with several sets of agents, who are in this case, people with distinct characteristics and behaviour. These sets of agents will be distributed in different geographical locations. Through random events by using probability and statistics, these agents will be allowed to develop
Scope and …show more content…
Expectations
The simulations developed are expected to replicate real-life scenarios with reasonable accuracy. They will help understand the driving force behind such social changes and will also bring out various other factors that lead to differences between the developed models and real-life cities. Once the simulation becomes fairly accurate, it can also be used to predict other changes that tend to accompany such social segregation patterns.
The Entities: Religion
The World
The simulation takes place in a square city of dimensions of 100x100 units. Each unit is deemed large enough to hold a complete industry or a house, no matter how big or small. Each and every action must occur within the city for it to have any effect on the simulated society economy, and the city is the complete environment you will see once the simulation starts.
Figure 1. The World
Each blank space is represented by a ‘-‘character and is replaced whenever a new entity is formed at a place specified on the world. The world is the most important component of the simulation as this is the most visible feature, and this is where you will see land use segregation patterns evolve.
Industries and Shops
As soon as the world is formed, the entity to develop is an industry. This is the component of the simulation that is responsible for enticing people to immigrate into the city through jobs. By means of looping, several industries are allowed to form once the simulation begins.
An industry is a large corporation, which might have an initial capital ranging from 1000 to 10000 units of money, and can provide jobs for up to 50 people. They are typically formed every 5 years, but only if the economy is prospering. They increase the global jobs available and lead to immigration if jobs remain after they have been offered to pre-existing residents of the city.
A shop is a much smaller business, typically formed every 10 years. It has an initial capital of only up to 1000 units of money, and can provide jobs for 1 to 5 people. These are formed by unemployed city residents and are meant to provide wages only to city residents. They do not attract immigrants.
Industries and shops are of two types – Manufacturing and Services. Manufacturing industries are generally located on the outskirts of the city, and only manufacturing shops are allowed inside inner city premises. Services industries and shops can be located anywhere and generally enhance locale appeal.
Houses
Houses are the primary entities associated with land use patterns and will initially function almost independently of all other entities. Their origin and formation is of course dependent on the demand of housing in the city, and for this reason are of two types: Normal houses and Couple houses.
Normal houses are formed to provide accommodation to immigrants who come to the city looking for jobs. They have a fixed capacity and price. Couple houses, on the other hand, are for people who have married and are looking to raise a family. They have a fixed price as well, but their capacity varies based on the number of children a couple has. Further subdivisions of both kinds of houses are available, and are categorized as Rich, Middle Class or Poor. They will influence to a significant extent where a person lives after he arrives to the city, or where a couple will settle once they are married.
Religious Societies
Religious societies are one of the most important entities associated with religious demographics of the society under consideration. They are formed once people start converting to various religions. A religious society can be of three types – Social Services, Sports and Geographical. The probability of formation of each of these societies is random. The membership limit of these societies is decided randomly with a dependence on the type of society being formed. For instance, a Social Service society could have between 400-500 members whereas a Sports society can have anywhere between 100-200 members while a Geographical society is allowed only 50-100 members.
Figure 2. Religious Society is formed
Monuments
A monument is a rare religious entity of great value. In the simulation, a monument is created once every 10 years. Such a monument could be of type ‘Tomb’ or ‘Statue’ and every monument is always associated with a particular religion. A monument serves as a milestone in determining the progress of the society.
People
People are the entities that will influence all major happenings in the world. They are the entities, quite obviously, that will witness the most status changes, and these changes are programmed to replicate real-life situations quite accurately. A person in the city can either immigrate or be born to a married couple. He will find accommodation and a job. He will then look to build relationships, marry and raise children of his own. Once a child is born, a person will also strive to provide for his family. Once he has completed his life functions, he will eventually die of old age, or might die younger of starvation if he is very poor.
Figure 3. An immigrant arrives
Place of Worship
Places of worship are created once people start converting to different religions. Each place of worship is associated with a particular religion and the name parameter of this entity is determined by the religion with which it is associated. For instance, a Hindu place of worship could be named ‘Temple of Ganesha ', 'Temple of Shiva ', 'Hanuman Temple ', 'Lakshmi Temple ' and ‘Durga Mandir’, a Christian place of worship on the other hand could be named ‘Roman Catholic Church’ or ‘Protestant Church’. This data is presented below in a more systematic format: Hinduism | Ganesha, Shiva, Hanuman, Lakshmi and Durga Temples | Islam | Pilgrimage and Regular Mosques | Christianity | Roman Catholic and Protestant Churches | Judaism | Synagogues | Buddhism | Stupas, Monasteries, Viharas |
Table 1. Different Types of Places of Worship
Figure 4. Protestant Church is formed
Behaviours and Functions: Religion
World Behaviour
Definition
As soon as the simulation is started, the world is automatically defined and filled with blank spaces. A school is created in the middle of the world to provide education to all children born later.
Timeline
Once the world is created, the next important order of business is establishing a relative timeline for changes to take place. The basic unit of time is a year, which is how long it takes for changes to take effect and for actions to occur. This is also the time before any new changes affect a person or any other entity.
Table 2. Timeline Information Display
Land Prices
This is the most important behaviour for effective land use patterns to develop. Each piece of empty land in the world has a particular land price. At inception, it is given a uniform, default value of 50 units of money. Then, as more and more entities are formed, land prices change based on where the entities are formed. This eventually leads to clusters of desirable or undesirable areas, and on further evolution, slums or very rich neighbourhoods.
Name Generation
It has been decided for simplicity and effective data analysis that each entity of a particular type will be referred to by a unique name. As such there are counters for the total population based on which a newly formed entity gets its name.
People Behaviour
People have the most comprehensive functions and characteristic behaviours out of all the entities and with good reason. The combined behaviour of the entire population leads to evolution and development of the city. New houses are formed and jobs are provided only if people get houses constructed and if they start working in industries.
Creation
Immigration
Whenever a person immigrates in search of new jobs, he is allotted a gender, a name, a random age between 20 and 30 years and is also given previously defined characteristics which aid him in his search for jobs. These characteristics also define his minimum expected salary, and as should be fairly obvious, a person with more characteristics demands a higher salary. An immigrant immediately begins search for houses and a job.
Birth and Schooling
A person may also be born to a married couple. He stays with the couple until he can find a job and a place of his own. By birth a child is randomly allotted a gender and his job characteristics. He is then schooled for 20 years before he can start looking for a job. His schooling is paid for by his parents and costs 150 units a year.
Choosing Religions
A person who is an atheist by default will be randomly allotted a particular religion after the simulation has been initialized. A person who has already chosen a religion is also eligible for inter-religion conversion based on certain conditions and probabilities. The functions convertReligion() and interReligionConversion() perform the task of maintaining the religious culture of the society.
Joining Societies
A person is eligible to join religious societies for which he satisfies the required condition (same religion except in the case of atheistic societies). The type of society he joins is selected based on random factors.
Job Searches
After a person has immigrated or is born and schooled for 20 years, he can start looking for a job. This task is achieved by looking for industries which have job vacancies and have employment criteria matching his characteristics. He then checks to make sure the industry meets his expected salary. Once all these checks are satisfied, he becomes a part of the organization and starts earning an annual salary.
A person can also start a business by becoming involved in a 2-3 employee industry. This is the quickest way to get rich in the simulation.
Housing
A person will start looking for a house to settle in after he immigrates and after he gets married. For this purpose, and for deciding where he will stay, he is given a wealth status based on his current net value. He is then judged to be rich, middle class or poor. For normal housing, a list of houses is made which fall within his budget and have capacity for housing more people. A rich person will choose the highest range houses in this list, while a poor person will choose the lowest range houses. A middle class person can choose to go with any of the houses in the list.
Figure 5. Person buys a new house
For couple housing, they are allowed to construct a new house on a blank location in the world based on their status. If they are rich, they will tend to choose rich neighbourhoods and if they are poor, poor neighbourhoods. They pay for the house together, combining their money.
Once in 4 years, each citizen which choose to change houses. They do this based on where they work, where they currently live and the price of the new house. If the distance of another house, within budget, fits their status and is closer to the industry a person is employed in, he will change houses and gain the present value of his house, while paying for the value of his new house. He then becomes a resident of his new house, and might decide to shift at some point in the future.
Relationships
After a person starts working, he will start looking for relationships. This is done through interactions at his work place with members of the opposite sex. A relationship must then stand the test of time and a random probability of breakup is allotted every year. Polygamy is decided to be not as important in developing the concepts being simulated, and therefore a person will only date or marry one person.
If a breakup happens, a person will start looking for a new relationship. If a person stays in a relationship with a single person for more than 2 years, he can choose to marry. After marriage, a couple will move into a new home.
Figure 6. Person enters into relationship
Marriage
Marriage is the point when couples move in together and start having children. They share their money and hence ensure that a working member can support his family even if his spouse is unemployed. The main function of a marriage in our simulation is to give birth to children who will then restart the lifecycle. As such marriages can start producing children up to a certain number between 1 and 4 decided as soon as the marriage occurs based on the expectations of the couple, decided randomly.
Wealth Status
The most important guiding force behind both concepts being simulated is the status accorded to a person based on the amount of money he has. The scale currently chosen is simplistic. A richness line and a poverty line are calculated as an average of the average money in the entire population with the maximum money and the minimum money, respectively. All people above the richness line are adjudged rich and all those below the poverty line are adjudged poor. If the poverty line goes to a negative number, and that would not make too much sense, a certain minimum number of money units are defined as the poverty line, which have been decided to be 50.
Figure 7. Wealth Status
Death
A person can die in two ways in the simulation. If he becomes too poor, and is over 2500 units in debt, he will simply die of starvation. If the person has lived a full life, he will die at age 75 of old age. Either way, the effect on the rest of the society is the same.
If the dead person has a home, he will lose ownership and the house will become empty. If the person was working somewhere, his place in the organization will be vacant, and will lead to a job opening. If the person was married or in a relationship, his partner’s marriage or relationship status will be single again, and if he has children, they will inherit all his amassed money or debts, whatever the case may be.
Lifecycle
A person’s lifecycle in the city therefore, can start in two ways. He will either be born or immigrate. If he is born, he will be schooled for 20 years before he can find a job and a new home. An immigrant will immediately look for a job and a house. Either way, he will look for a relationship, marry, and have children. He can then either die of starvation or of old age at age 75.
The Entities: War
The World
The simulation takes place in a square world of dimensions of 400x400 units. This world is divided into four units with each unit having an area of 199x199 units and boundaries. The world is a representation of the area occupied by the ‘Generals’. At the beginning of the simulation, each ‘General’ is allotted a particular unit of the world.
Initially each blank space in the world has been represented by a ‘-‘character and is replaced by a number identifying the ‘General’ when the simulation begins, thus representing allotment of that particular unit to the ‘General’. Whenever any annexation of territories takes place as a result of war, the number of the defeated ‘General’ is replaced by the number of the victorious ‘General’.
General
Generals are the primary entities of this simulation. A General essentially represents a country and its various characteristics and attributes. He is defined by parameters that closely replicate real-life scenarios applicable to countries. Each General is born with the capability of maintaining and growing a population. For initialization purposes, four Generals are defined at the beginning of the simulation.
Each General as mentioned earlier is allotted a particular unit within the world. Initially, all four Generals own units of the same size. A General as does a real-life country has certain requirements, namely – food, money, technology, military and morale. It is the objective of the General to satisfy or exceed all requirements based on priority and need. Generals also have various other attributes essential in establishing a state of war such as capability of using nuclear arsenal. Of course, this nuclear capability must be developed and is not initially present.
A General is identified by a unique number ranging from 1 to 4 and accordingly, his unit of land is allocated, 1 being the top-left unit, 2 being the top-right, 3 being the bottom-left and 4 being bottom-right. He also has one characteristic from amongst the following: 1. Peaceful 2. Conservative 3. Aggressive 4. Ruthless 5. Terrorist
Based on this characteristic, the General’s aggression factor is calculated as being 0.2 times the index number of the characteristic. He is also initially allocated 200 units of food, money, techno and morale so as to easily sustain and grow.
People
People are the constituent entities of a General. They possess parameters which influence the entire dynamics of the simulation. As are real-world people, they are characterized by a certain name and age. The most important parameter of a person however, is his profession. During initialization, a person is allotted one profession from among the following: 1. Farmer 2. Army 3. Industrialist 4. Scientist 5. Holy Person
A person of a particular profession provides certain units of resources to the General he is a part of. For example, a Farmer provides 50 units ‘food’, an Industrialist provides 50 units of ‘money’ and 25 units of ‘techno’ and so on and so forth. Each person however, based on his profession also consumes part of the resources. For example, a Farmer consumes 10 units of ‘food’, 10 units of ‘techno’, 10 units of ‘money’ and 10 units of ‘morale’.
Initially, a population of 200 people who are randomly allotted professions is created for each of the Generals. Hereafter, people are created as per requirement of the General (selectively choosing profession).
It must also be noted that people of particular professions continue to provide those particular units of resources to the General in each year of the simulation.
A person may be killed in the following ways: i. During the course of a ‘Second Level War’ which is defined later in the text. ii. At the age of 75 iii. During the course of a ‘Nuclear War’
Behaviours and Functions: War
World Behaviour
Definition
As soon as the simulation is started, the world is automatically defined, divided into four units and filled with blank spaces. Soon after, each unit of the world is allotted to a particular General.
Timeline
The basic unit of time is (as in the simulation on Religion) a year, which is how long it takes for changes to take effect and for actions to occur. This is also the time before any new changes affect a General or any other entity.
Name Generation
This function remains the same as it was from the simulation of Religion.
General Behaviour
Creation
Four Generals are created as part of the initialization of the simulation. These four Generals are accordingly allotted different units of the world as per their unique identification number. Hereafter, all blank spaces in the allotted unit of the world are replaced by the unique identification number of the General.
All Generals are initialized with populations of 200 people each. They are also at the time of creation given 200 units of all resources (food, techno, money, morale) for initialization.
Growth
Each year, the Generals’ resources grow depending on the population of different kinds of people within the Generals’ domain. For instance each Farmer provides the General 50 units of food every year or each Industrialist provides the General 50 units of money every year.
Also, each year, certain parameters of the Generals are checked to ensure that the resource requirement of the entire population is being met. If any parameter does not satisfy the resource requirements, then accordingly, the appropriate types of people with selected professions are created in proportion to the geographical area commanded by the General to ensure that the requirement is met.
In the event that more than two requirements are not being met, priority rules have been established to break the tie. The requirement for food precedes the requirement for money which precedes the requirement for techno and finally, the requirement for morale is considered.
If all requirements are satisfied, then depending on the geographical area commanded by the General, people are created with professions selected randomly.
Strategy
The objective of the General is to increase the geographical area under his command so that he can produce a greater number of resources each year. For this purpose, the General must select an appropriate strategy which is essentially the selection of an opponent for the purpose of war. The process of opponent selection involves calculation of expected gain.
Expected Gain
The expected gain of a General with respect to another General is a figure determining his chances of winning the battle. It is calculated for all possible opponents and the maximum value of the expected gain from all opponents is chosen as the final expected gain of the attacking General. If this value is positive then the corresponding General is chosen as the opponent, however, if this value is zero or negative, then a strategy of defence is deployed.
To find the expected gain, first the difference in army sizes of the two Generals under consideration is calculated.
If the army size of the General waging the war is greater than that of the opponent under consideration, then the expected gain is a positive value. In this case the expected armies to be sent by both Generals are calculated.
This is done by adding the difference in army sizes multiplied by the aggression factor of the waging General to the army size of the opposing General, for the General waging the war, and by subtracting the difference in army sizes multiplied by the aggression factor of the opposing General from the army size of the opposing General, for the General who is opposing the attack. The difference of these expected army sizes is calculated and designated as the expected gain of the attacking General with respect to the defending General.
In the event that the army sizes of the two Generals are equal, the expected gain is zero and if the army size of the defending General is greater than that of the attacking General, then the expected gain is a very large negative value (-9999 in this simulation).
Death
A General is destroyed if the area under his command reduces to zero at any point. This can occur due to two reasons: i. A ‘Level Two War’ ii. A ‘Nuclear War’
People
Behaviour
Creation
At the beginning of the simulation, 200 people are created for each of the existing generals. Their professions are randomly chosen to provide for varied distribution of resources among generals. Hereafter, people are created each year proportional to the geographical area commanded by the General. If the resource requirement of a General is not satisfied, then people with selected professions are created to meet the needs but if all parameters are satisfied then people are created with randomly selected professions.
Growth
People grow in age, and depending on their profession, provide the respective resources to the General each year.
Requirements
Each person requires certain units of resources. These requirements have been summarized in the table shown below: Resources Required | Profession | | Food | Money | Techno | Morale | | Farmer | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | | Scientist | 10 | 15 | 10 | 10 | | Industrialist | 10 | 10 | 15 | 10 | | Army | 15 | 15 | 15 | 20 | | Holy Person | 5 | 5 | NA | NA |
Table 3. Resource Requirement Table
Death
A person dies if he reaches the age of 75 or if he is killed during a war. After a person’s death, suitable changes are made in his General’s parameters to reflect the incident. These include lowering of resources provided by the person and decrementing the population.
Level One War
Definition
A ‘Level One’ war is essentially one in which the only outcome is the payment of tribute. As such, the magnitude of such a war is low. Four cases can occur when the simulation enters a ‘Level One’ war.
Description and Rationale
A ‘Level One’ war state exists so that wars which do not result in casualties or annexation/conquests of countries can be represented and simulated. In a ‘Level One’ war state, money and techno are the only parameters used to determine the outcome of the war. The amount of money received as tribute increases in steps of 200 with the aggression level of the General and the food received increases in steps of 100. This rule has been established keeping in mind that the nature of tribute would depend on the character of the attacking General.
In the absence of a single superiority condition (lesser money than opponent or less techno than opponent), the morale received increases in steps of 100. This rule finds rationale in the fact that if a General can win a war without the satisfaction of all superiority conditions, he would receive a morale boost. The probability of losing also increases by 0.2 per absence of superiority condition. Any loss results in a loss of 500 units of morale and money. Case Table
The rationale and description of a ‘Level One’ war is depicted in the case table below: Case | Probability | Attribute | Aggression Factor of Attacking General | Money | Techno | W | L | | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | | | | | | W | L | W | L | W | L | W | L | W | L | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Money | 200 | n/a | 400 | n/a | 600 | n/a | 800 | n/a | 1000 | n/a | | | | | Food | 100 | n/a | 200 | n/a | 300 | n/a | 400 | n/a | 500 | n/a | | | | | Morale | 100 | n/a | 100 | n/a | 100 | n/a | 100 | n/a | 100 | n/a | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | Money | 200 | -500 | 400 | -500 | 600 | -500 | 800 | -500 | 1000 | -500 | | | | | Food | 100 | n/a | 200 | n/a | 300 | n/a | 400 | n/a | 500 | n/a | | | | | Morale | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | Money | 200 | -500 | 400 | -500 | 600 | -500 | 800 | -500 | 1000 | -500 | | | | | Food | 100 | n/a | 200 | n/a | 300 | n/a | 400 | n/a | 500 | n/a | | | | | Morale | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | Money | 200 | -500 | 400 | -500 | 600 | -500 | 800 | -500 | 1000 | -500 | | | | | Food | 100 | n/a | 200 | n/a | 300 | n/a | 400 | n/a | 500 | n/a | | | | | Morale | 300 | -500 | 300 | -500 | 300 | -500 | 300 | -500 | 300 | -500 |
Level Two War
Definition
A ‘Level Two’ war is essentially one in which it is possible for people to die and for new territories to be conquered/annexed. As such, the magnitude of such a war is high. Sixteen cases can occur when the simulation enters a ‘Level Two’ war.
Description and Rationale
A ‘Level Two’ war state exists so that wars which result in casualties or annexation/conquests of countries can be represented and simulated. In a ‘Level Two’ war state, four parameters are used to determine the outcome of the war namely – differences in army size, money, techno and morale of the two warring Generals. The amount of money and food received as tribute increase in steps of 250 from 1000 to 2000 with the aggression level of the General. The rationale of this rule has already been discussed.
Once again in the absence of a single superiority condition (lesser money than opponent or less techno than opponent), the morale received for a win increases in steps of 100. The rationale of this rule has also already been discussed. The probability of losing, once again, increases by 0.2 per absence of superiority condition. A loss also results in a loss ranging from 500 to 1500 units of money and morale in steps of 500 as per absence of superiority condition.
Also, in a ‘Level Two’ war, certain numbers of people are killed and certain units of territories are annexed depending on the nature of the attacking General. This variation occurs from figures of 50 for ‘peaceful’ Generals to 800 for ‘terrorist’ Generals in factors of 2. The logic behind this dependency is that a more aggressive General would kill more people and conquer more land. Similarly, even if a loss occurs, 200/400 units of people are killed and territories annexed if the difference in army sizes of the two Generals is greater than/lesser than 500.
Nuclear War
Definition
A nuclear war as in real-life is the most destructive form of conflict. It results in massive loss of life and property and is one of the fastest ways to completely destroy a General. It has a very low probability of occurrence.
Description and Rationale
A nuclear war has been included to add colour to the simulation. It accurately depicts the modern warfare techniques available to us in real-time. A nuclear attack can only be committed by a General of type ‘Ruthless’ or ‘Terrorist’ if the General has generated enough techno units to generate nuclear capability. The probability of occurrence if these conditions are met is 0.01 i.e. there is only a 1% chance of a nuclear war.
In a nuclear war, the entire geographical area under the General is completely destroyed and replaced with blanks (unusable land). After execution of the nuclear war, 250000 units of techno are consumed.
Results
Religion
Simulation results for 45 years show the strength (in %) of different types of religions: Year | Hindus | Muslims | Christians | Jews | Buddhists | Atheists | 1 | 16 | 20 | 28 | 0 | 14 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 26 | 36 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 30 | 35 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 36 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 36 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 27 | 33 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 34 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 17 | 22 | 35 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 9 | 17 | 21 | 37 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 18 | 21 | 37 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 38 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 22 | 39 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 42 | 39 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 24 | 39 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 23 | 39 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 23 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 22 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 23 | 41 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 17 | 23 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 41 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 17 | 23 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 16 | 22 | 39 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 16 | 22 | 38 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 15 | 22 | 39 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 15 | 21 | 40 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 26 | 15 | 22 | 40 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 16 | 22 | 42 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 16 | 21 | 42 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 29 | 15 | 22 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 14 | 21 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 14 | 20 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 14 | 20 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 33 | 15 | 19 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 14 | 19 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 35 | 14 | 19 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 36 | 14 | 18 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 15 | 18 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 38 | 15 | 18 | 36 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 39 | 15 | 18 | 36 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 40 | 15 | 17 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 41 | 14 | 17 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 42 | 14 | 18 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 43 | 14 | 18 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 44 | 14 | 19 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 45 | 14 | 19 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 24 |
These figures are roughly approximate to real-life statistics as far as the simulated religions are concerned independently of others. Year | No. of Places of Worship | No. of Religious Societies | No. of Monuments | No. of People in Religious Societies | 10 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 161 | 20 | 10 | 20 | 2 | 267 | 30 | 18 | 30 | 3 | 422 | 40 | 28 | 40 | 4 | 579 | 50 | 35 | 50 | 5 | 699 |
These figures reflect the development of the culture of the society every decade. The statistics indicate that the society is rapidly developing a rich culture with the number of religious societies increasing in steps of 10 for every 10 years.
It may be concluded based on these simulated results that the artificial society is fairly consistent with the behaviours of a real-life society and can be used as a statistical model for the same.
War
The simulation on war is an extensive mathematical model which seeks to find the winner based on initially random resource allocations. It is in essence, a massive optimization problem which is highly dependent on real-world situations.
Figure 8. Sample log from the simulation of War
The mathematical model on War depends on factors such as resources available – food, technology, money and morale and resources required – based on the different types of people present in the simulation. The mathematical model returns different results each time which explore various possible permutations and combinations possible during the course of war.
For the purpose of adding a more realistic feel to the simulation, nuclear capability has also been added as a parameter.
Figure 9. Nuclear Warfare
The results of the war are fairly accurate as can be examined from the Logs generated. They closely depict real-life war scenarios and the reactions of the Generals are based on this correspondence.
References
Hetland, M. L. (2005). Beginning Python: From Novice to Professional.
Apress. Langtangen, H. P. Python Scripting for Computational Science Springer.
PyGame Basics. (n.d.). Retrieved June 2010, from GPWiki.org:
http://gpwiki.org/index.php/Python:Pygame_basics
Abstract
The aim of this project is to conduct social experiments in a life-like simulation environment. By developing complex artificial intelligence models for all the different people present in the sample space, and by efficiently integrating concepts related to the study subject, we can simulate the actual evolution of the concept as well as how it affects people in real-life situations.
The project has been carried out through a Python script which defines …show more content…
the environment, the people present in the environment along with their intelligence models and the conditions necessary for the given concept to form as well as the conditions necessary for it to evolve. The simulation is then left for a pre-defined time interval to see how the scenario develops while giving helpful information every time something important occurs.
This experiment simulates two concepts – War and Evolution of Religion.
The simulations developed are expected to replicate real-life scenarios with reasonable accuracy. They will help understand the driving force behind such social changes and will also bring out various other factors that lead to differences between the developed models and real-life cities. Once the simulation becomes fairly accurate, it can also be used to predict other changes that tend to accompany such social segregation patterns.
Table of Contents Certificate 2 Acknowledgements 3 Abstract 4 1 Introduction 7 1.1 Sociological Concepts 7 1.1.1 War 7 1.1.2 Evolution of Religion 7 1.2 Scope and Expectations 8 2 The Entities: Religion 9 2.1 The World 9 2.2 Industries and Shops 10 2.3 Houses 10 2.4 Religious Societies 10 2.5 Monuments 11 2.6 People 11 2.7 Place of Worship 12 3 Behaviours and Functions: Religion 13 3.1 World Behaviour 13 3.1.1 Definition 13 3.1.2 Timeline 13 3.1.3 Land Prices 13 3.1.4 Name Generation 13 3.2 People Behaviour 13 3.2.1 Creation 14 3.2.1.1 Immigration 14 3.2.1.2 Birth and Schooling 14 3.2.2 Choosing Religions 14 3.2.3 Joining Societies 14 3.2.4 Job Searches 14 3.2.5 Housing 14 3.2.6 Relationships 15 3.2.7 Marriage 15 3.2.8 Wealth Status 16 3.2.9 Death 16 3.2.10 Lifecycle 16 4 The Entities: War 17 4.1 The World 17 4.2 General 17 4.3 People 18 5 Behaviours and Functions: War 19 5.1 World Behaviour 19 5.1.1 Definition 19 5.1.2 Timeline 19 5.1.3 Name Generation 19 5.2 General Behaviour 19 5.2.1 Creation 19 5.2.2 Growth 19 5.2.3 Strategy 20 5.2.3.1 Expected Gain 20 5.2.4 Death 20 5.3 People Behaviour 20 5.3.1 Creation 20 5.3.2 Growth 21 5.3.3 Requirements 21 5.3.4 Death 21 5.4 Level One War 21 5.4.1 Definition 21 5.4.2 Description and Rationale 21 5.4.3 Case Table 22 5.5 Level Two War 22 5.5.1 Definition 22 5.5.2 Description and Rationale 22 5.6 Nuclear War 23 5.6.1 Definition 23 5.6.2 Description and Rationale 23 6 Results 24 6.1 Religion 24 6.2 War 25 7 References 27
Introduction
Sociological Concepts
This experiment will simulate two concepts – 1.1.1 War
War is a behaviour pattern exhibited by many primate species including man, and also found in many ant species. The primary feature of this behaviour pattern is a certain state of organized violent conflict that is engaged in between two or more separate social entities. Such a conflict is always an attempt at altering either the psychological hierarchy or the material hierarchy of domination or equality between two or more groups. In all cases, at least one participant (group) in the conflict perceives the need to either psychologically or materially dominate the other participant.
Amongst humans, the perceived need for domination often arises from the belief that an essential ideology or resource is somehow either so incompatible or so scarce as to threaten the fundamental existence of the one group experiencing the need to dominate the other group.
The simulation begins with existing civilizations with different characteristics. Complex artificial intelligence models have been developed for agents, who in this case are the people living in different civilizations. Agents based in a particular civilization collectively react to changes in environment variables. Via random interaction of people and civilizations a state of conflict has been achieved. This simulation will attempt to match as accurately as possible the simulated state of war with real-life situations and optimization problems. By means of this simulation several key aspects can be analyzed namely: 1 Motives of the war 2 War strategies 3 Consequences and results of the war 1.1.2 Evolution of Religion
A religion is a set of beliefs concerning the cause, nature, and purpose of the universe, especially when considered as the creation of a supernatural agency or agencies, usually involving devotional and ritual observances, and often containing a moral code governing the conduct of human affairs.
Aspects of religion include narrative, symbolism, beliefs, and practices that are supposed to give meaning to the practitioner 's experiences of life. Whether the meaning centres on a deity or deities, or an ultimate truth, religion is commonly identified by the practitioner 's prayer, ritual, meditation, music and art, among other things, and is often interwoven with society and politics. The development of religion has taken many forms in various cultures, with continental differences.
This simulation begins with several sets of agents, who are in this case, people with distinct characteristics and behaviour. These sets of agents will be distributed in different geographical locations. Through random events by using probability and statistics, these agents will be allowed to develop
Scope and …show more content…
Expectations
The simulations developed are expected to replicate real-life scenarios with reasonable accuracy. They will help understand the driving force behind such social changes and will also bring out various other factors that lead to differences between the developed models and real-life cities. Once the simulation becomes fairly accurate, it can also be used to predict other changes that tend to accompany such social segregation patterns.
The Entities: Religion
The World
The simulation takes place in a square city of dimensions of 100x100 units. Each unit is deemed large enough to hold a complete industry or a house, no matter how big or small. Each and every action must occur within the city for it to have any effect on the simulated society economy, and the city is the complete environment you will see once the simulation starts.
Figure 1. The World
Each blank space is represented by a ‘-‘character and is replaced whenever a new entity is formed at a place specified on the world. The world is the most important component of the simulation as this is the most visible feature, and this is where you will see land use segregation patterns evolve.
Industries and Shops
As soon as the world is formed, the entity to develop is an industry. This is the component of the simulation that is responsible for enticing people to immigrate into the city through jobs. By means of looping, several industries are allowed to form once the simulation begins.
An industry is a large corporation, which might have an initial capital ranging from 1000 to 10000 units of money, and can provide jobs for up to 50 people. They are typically formed every 5 years, but only if the economy is prospering. They increase the global jobs available and lead to immigration if jobs remain after they have been offered to pre-existing residents of the city.
A shop is a much smaller business, typically formed every 10 years. It has an initial capital of only up to 1000 units of money, and can provide jobs for 1 to 5 people. These are formed by unemployed city residents and are meant to provide wages only to city residents. They do not attract immigrants.
Industries and shops are of two types – Manufacturing and Services. Manufacturing industries are generally located on the outskirts of the city, and only manufacturing shops are allowed inside inner city premises. Services industries and shops can be located anywhere and generally enhance locale appeal.
Houses
Houses are the primary entities associated with land use patterns and will initially function almost independently of all other entities. Their origin and formation is of course dependent on the demand of housing in the city, and for this reason are of two types: Normal houses and Couple houses.
Normal houses are formed to provide accommodation to immigrants who come to the city looking for jobs. They have a fixed capacity and price. Couple houses, on the other hand, are for people who have married and are looking to raise a family. They have a fixed price as well, but their capacity varies based on the number of children a couple has. Further subdivisions of both kinds of houses are available, and are categorized as Rich, Middle Class or Poor. They will influence to a significant extent where a person lives after he arrives to the city, or where a couple will settle once they are married.
Religious Societies
Religious societies are one of the most important entities associated with religious demographics of the society under consideration. They are formed once people start converting to various religions. A religious society can be of three types – Social Services, Sports and Geographical. The probability of formation of each of these societies is random. The membership limit of these societies is decided randomly with a dependence on the type of society being formed. For instance, a Social Service society could have between 400-500 members whereas a Sports society can have anywhere between 100-200 members while a Geographical society is allowed only 50-100 members.
Figure 2. Religious Society is formed
Monuments
A monument is a rare religious entity of great value. In the simulation, a monument is created once every 10 years. Such a monument could be of type ‘Tomb’ or ‘Statue’ and every monument is always associated with a particular religion. A monument serves as a milestone in determining the progress of the society.
People
People are the entities that will influence all major happenings in the world. They are the entities, quite obviously, that will witness the most status changes, and these changes are programmed to replicate real-life situations quite accurately. A person in the city can either immigrate or be born to a married couple. He will find accommodation and a job. He will then look to build relationships, marry and raise children of his own. Once a child is born, a person will also strive to provide for his family. Once he has completed his life functions, he will eventually die of old age, or might die younger of starvation if he is very poor.
Figure 3. An immigrant arrives
Place of Worship
Places of worship are created once people start converting to different religions. Each place of worship is associated with a particular religion and the name parameter of this entity is determined by the religion with which it is associated. For instance, a Hindu place of worship could be named ‘Temple of Ganesha ', 'Temple of Shiva ', 'Hanuman Temple ', 'Lakshmi Temple ' and ‘Durga Mandir’, a Christian place of worship on the other hand could be named ‘Roman Catholic Church’ or ‘Protestant Church’. This data is presented below in a more systematic format: Hinduism | Ganesha, Shiva, Hanuman, Lakshmi and Durga Temples | Islam | Pilgrimage and Regular Mosques | Christianity | Roman Catholic and Protestant Churches | Judaism | Synagogues | Buddhism | Stupas, Monasteries, Viharas |
Table 1. Different Types of Places of Worship
Figure 4. Protestant Church is formed
Behaviours and Functions: Religion
World Behaviour
Definition
As soon as the simulation is started, the world is automatically defined and filled with blank spaces. A school is created in the middle of the world to provide education to all children born later.
Timeline
Once the world is created, the next important order of business is establishing a relative timeline for changes to take place. The basic unit of time is a year, which is how long it takes for changes to take effect and for actions to occur. This is also the time before any new changes affect a person or any other entity.
Table 2. Timeline Information Display
Land Prices
This is the most important behaviour for effective land use patterns to develop. Each piece of empty land in the world has a particular land price. At inception, it is given a uniform, default value of 50 units of money. Then, as more and more entities are formed, land prices change based on where the entities are formed. This eventually leads to clusters of desirable or undesirable areas, and on further evolution, slums or very rich neighbourhoods.
Name Generation
It has been decided for simplicity and effective data analysis that each entity of a particular type will be referred to by a unique name. As such there are counters for the total population based on which a newly formed entity gets its name.
People Behaviour
People have the most comprehensive functions and characteristic behaviours out of all the entities and with good reason. The combined behaviour of the entire population leads to evolution and development of the city. New houses are formed and jobs are provided only if people get houses constructed and if they start working in industries.
Creation
Immigration
Whenever a person immigrates in search of new jobs, he is allotted a gender, a name, a random age between 20 and 30 years and is also given previously defined characteristics which aid him in his search for jobs. These characteristics also define his minimum expected salary, and as should be fairly obvious, a person with more characteristics demands a higher salary. An immigrant immediately begins search for houses and a job.
Birth and Schooling
A person may also be born to a married couple. He stays with the couple until he can find a job and a place of his own. By birth a child is randomly allotted a gender and his job characteristics. He is then schooled for 20 years before he can start looking for a job. His schooling is paid for by his parents and costs 150 units a year.
Choosing Religions
A person who is an atheist by default will be randomly allotted a particular religion after the simulation has been initialized. A person who has already chosen a religion is also eligible for inter-religion conversion based on certain conditions and probabilities. The functions convertReligion() and interReligionConversion() perform the task of maintaining the religious culture of the society.
Joining Societies
A person is eligible to join religious societies for which he satisfies the required condition (same religion except in the case of atheistic societies). The type of society he joins is selected based on random factors.
Job Searches
After a person has immigrated or is born and schooled for 20 years, he can start looking for a job. This task is achieved by looking for industries which have job vacancies and have employment criteria matching his characteristics. He then checks to make sure the industry meets his expected salary. Once all these checks are satisfied, he becomes a part of the organization and starts earning an annual salary.
A person can also start a business by becoming involved in a 2-3 employee industry. This is the quickest way to get rich in the simulation.
Housing
A person will start looking for a house to settle in after he immigrates and after he gets married. For this purpose, and for deciding where he will stay, he is given a wealth status based on his current net value. He is then judged to be rich, middle class or poor. For normal housing, a list of houses is made which fall within his budget and have capacity for housing more people. A rich person will choose the highest range houses in this list, while a poor person will choose the lowest range houses. A middle class person can choose to go with any of the houses in the list.
Figure 5. Person buys a new house
For couple housing, they are allowed to construct a new house on a blank location in the world based on their status. If they are rich, they will tend to choose rich neighbourhoods and if they are poor, poor neighbourhoods. They pay for the house together, combining their money.
Once in 4 years, each citizen which choose to change houses. They do this based on where they work, where they currently live and the price of the new house. If the distance of another house, within budget, fits their status and is closer to the industry a person is employed in, he will change houses and gain the present value of his house, while paying for the value of his new house. He then becomes a resident of his new house, and might decide to shift at some point in the future.
Relationships
After a person starts working, he will start looking for relationships. This is done through interactions at his work place with members of the opposite sex. A relationship must then stand the test of time and a random probability of breakup is allotted every year. Polygamy is decided to be not as important in developing the concepts being simulated, and therefore a person will only date or marry one person.
If a breakup happens, a person will start looking for a new relationship. If a person stays in a relationship with a single person for more than 2 years, he can choose to marry. After marriage, a couple will move into a new home.
Figure 6. Person enters into relationship
Marriage
Marriage is the point when couples move in together and start having children. They share their money and hence ensure that a working member can support his family even if his spouse is unemployed. The main function of a marriage in our simulation is to give birth to children who will then restart the lifecycle. As such marriages can start producing children up to a certain number between 1 and 4 decided as soon as the marriage occurs based on the expectations of the couple, decided randomly.
Wealth Status
The most important guiding force behind both concepts being simulated is the status accorded to a person based on the amount of money he has. The scale currently chosen is simplistic. A richness line and a poverty line are calculated as an average of the average money in the entire population with the maximum money and the minimum money, respectively. All people above the richness line are adjudged rich and all those below the poverty line are adjudged poor. If the poverty line goes to a negative number, and that would not make too much sense, a certain minimum number of money units are defined as the poverty line, which have been decided to be 50.
Figure 7. Wealth Status
Death
A person can die in two ways in the simulation. If he becomes too poor, and is over 2500 units in debt, he will simply die of starvation. If the person has lived a full life, he will die at age 75 of old age. Either way, the effect on the rest of the society is the same.
If the dead person has a home, he will lose ownership and the house will become empty. If the person was working somewhere, his place in the organization will be vacant, and will lead to a job opening. If the person was married or in a relationship, his partner’s marriage or relationship status will be single again, and if he has children, they will inherit all his amassed money or debts, whatever the case may be.
Lifecycle
A person’s lifecycle in the city therefore, can start in two ways. He will either be born or immigrate. If he is born, he will be schooled for 20 years before he can find a job and a new home. An immigrant will immediately look for a job and a house. Either way, he will look for a relationship, marry, and have children. He can then either die of starvation or of old age at age 75.
The Entities: War
The World
The simulation takes place in a square world of dimensions of 400x400 units. This world is divided into four units with each unit having an area of 199x199 units and boundaries. The world is a representation of the area occupied by the ‘Generals’. At the beginning of the simulation, each ‘General’ is allotted a particular unit of the world.
Initially each blank space in the world has been represented by a ‘-‘character and is replaced by a number identifying the ‘General’ when the simulation begins, thus representing allotment of that particular unit to the ‘General’. Whenever any annexation of territories takes place as a result of war, the number of the defeated ‘General’ is replaced by the number of the victorious ‘General’.
General
Generals are the primary entities of this simulation. A General essentially represents a country and its various characteristics and attributes. He is defined by parameters that closely replicate real-life scenarios applicable to countries. Each General is born with the capability of maintaining and growing a population. For initialization purposes, four Generals are defined at the beginning of the simulation.
Each General as mentioned earlier is allotted a particular unit within the world. Initially, all four Generals own units of the same size. A General as does a real-life country has certain requirements, namely – food, money, technology, military and morale. It is the objective of the General to satisfy or exceed all requirements based on priority and need. Generals also have various other attributes essential in establishing a state of war such as capability of using nuclear arsenal. Of course, this nuclear capability must be developed and is not initially present.
A General is identified by a unique number ranging from 1 to 4 and accordingly, his unit of land is allocated, 1 being the top-left unit, 2 being the top-right, 3 being the bottom-left and 4 being bottom-right. He also has one characteristic from amongst the following: 1. Peaceful 2. Conservative 3. Aggressive 4. Ruthless 5. Terrorist
Based on this characteristic, the General’s aggression factor is calculated as being 0.2 times the index number of the characteristic. He is also initially allocated 200 units of food, money, techno and morale so as to easily sustain and grow.
People
People are the constituent entities of a General. They possess parameters which influence the entire dynamics of the simulation. As are real-world people, they are characterized by a certain name and age. The most important parameter of a person however, is his profession. During initialization, a person is allotted one profession from among the following: 1. Farmer 2. Army 3. Industrialist 4. Scientist 5. Holy Person
A person of a particular profession provides certain units of resources to the General he is a part of. For example, a Farmer provides 50 units ‘food’, an Industrialist provides 50 units of ‘money’ and 25 units of ‘techno’ and so on and so forth. Each person however, based on his profession also consumes part of the resources. For example, a Farmer consumes 10 units of ‘food’, 10 units of ‘techno’, 10 units of ‘money’ and 10 units of ‘morale’.
Initially, a population of 200 people who are randomly allotted professions is created for each of the Generals. Hereafter, people are created as per requirement of the General (selectively choosing profession).
It must also be noted that people of particular professions continue to provide those particular units of resources to the General in each year of the simulation.
A person may be killed in the following ways: i. During the course of a ‘Second Level War’ which is defined later in the text. ii. At the age of 75 iii. During the course of a ‘Nuclear War’
Behaviours and Functions: War
World Behaviour
Definition
As soon as the simulation is started, the world is automatically defined, divided into four units and filled with blank spaces. Soon after, each unit of the world is allotted to a particular General.
Timeline
The basic unit of time is (as in the simulation on Religion) a year, which is how long it takes for changes to take effect and for actions to occur. This is also the time before any new changes affect a General or any other entity.
Name Generation
This function remains the same as it was from the simulation of Religion.
General Behaviour
Creation
Four Generals are created as part of the initialization of the simulation. These four Generals are accordingly allotted different units of the world as per their unique identification number. Hereafter, all blank spaces in the allotted unit of the world are replaced by the unique identification number of the General.
All Generals are initialized with populations of 200 people each. They are also at the time of creation given 200 units of all resources (food, techno, money, morale) for initialization.
Growth
Each year, the Generals’ resources grow depending on the population of different kinds of people within the Generals’ domain. For instance each Farmer provides the General 50 units of food every year or each Industrialist provides the General 50 units of money every year.
Also, each year, certain parameters of the Generals are checked to ensure that the resource requirement of the entire population is being met. If any parameter does not satisfy the resource requirements, then accordingly, the appropriate types of people with selected professions are created in proportion to the geographical area commanded by the General to ensure that the requirement is met.
In the event that more than two requirements are not being met, priority rules have been established to break the tie. The requirement for food precedes the requirement for money which precedes the requirement for techno and finally, the requirement for morale is considered.
If all requirements are satisfied, then depending on the geographical area commanded by the General, people are created with professions selected randomly.
Strategy
The objective of the General is to increase the geographical area under his command so that he can produce a greater number of resources each year. For this purpose, the General must select an appropriate strategy which is essentially the selection of an opponent for the purpose of war. The process of opponent selection involves calculation of expected gain.
Expected Gain
The expected gain of a General with respect to another General is a figure determining his chances of winning the battle. It is calculated for all possible opponents and the maximum value of the expected gain from all opponents is chosen as the final expected gain of the attacking General. If this value is positive then the corresponding General is chosen as the opponent, however, if this value is zero or negative, then a strategy of defence is deployed.
To find the expected gain, first the difference in army sizes of the two Generals under consideration is calculated.
If the army size of the General waging the war is greater than that of the opponent under consideration, then the expected gain is a positive value. In this case the expected armies to be sent by both Generals are calculated.
This is done by adding the difference in army sizes multiplied by the aggression factor of the waging General to the army size of the opposing General, for the General waging the war, and by subtracting the difference in army sizes multiplied by the aggression factor of the opposing General from the army size of the opposing General, for the General who is opposing the attack. The difference of these expected army sizes is calculated and designated as the expected gain of the attacking General with respect to the defending General.
In the event that the army sizes of the two Generals are equal, the expected gain is zero and if the army size of the defending General is greater than that of the attacking General, then the expected gain is a very large negative value (-9999 in this simulation).
Death
A General is destroyed if the area under his command reduces to zero at any point. This can occur due to two reasons: i. A ‘Level Two War’ ii. A ‘Nuclear War’
People
Behaviour
Creation
At the beginning of the simulation, 200 people are created for each of the existing generals. Their professions are randomly chosen to provide for varied distribution of resources among generals. Hereafter, people are created each year proportional to the geographical area commanded by the General. If the resource requirement of a General is not satisfied, then people with selected professions are created to meet the needs but if all parameters are satisfied then people are created with randomly selected professions.
Growth
People grow in age, and depending on their profession, provide the respective resources to the General each year.
Requirements
Each person requires certain units of resources. These requirements have been summarized in the table shown below: Resources Required | Profession | | Food | Money | Techno | Morale | | Farmer | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | | Scientist | 10 | 15 | 10 | 10 | | Industrialist | 10 | 10 | 15 | 10 | | Army | 15 | 15 | 15 | 20 | | Holy Person | 5 | 5 | NA | NA |
Table 3. Resource Requirement Table
Death
A person dies if he reaches the age of 75 or if he is killed during a war. After a person’s death, suitable changes are made in his General’s parameters to reflect the incident. These include lowering of resources provided by the person and decrementing the population.
Level One War
Definition
A ‘Level One’ war is essentially one in which the only outcome is the payment of tribute. As such, the magnitude of such a war is low. Four cases can occur when the simulation enters a ‘Level One’ war.
Description and Rationale
A ‘Level One’ war state exists so that wars which do not result in casualties or annexation/conquests of countries can be represented and simulated. In a ‘Level One’ war state, money and techno are the only parameters used to determine the outcome of the war. The amount of money received as tribute increases in steps of 200 with the aggression level of the General and the food received increases in steps of 100. This rule has been established keeping in mind that the nature of tribute would depend on the character of the attacking General.
In the absence of a single superiority condition (lesser money than opponent or less techno than opponent), the morale received increases in steps of 100. This rule finds rationale in the fact that if a General can win a war without the satisfaction of all superiority conditions, he would receive a morale boost. The probability of losing also increases by 0.2 per absence of superiority condition. Any loss results in a loss of 500 units of morale and money. Case Table
The rationale and description of a ‘Level One’ war is depicted in the case table below: Case | Probability | Attribute | Aggression Factor of Attacking General | Money | Techno | W | L | | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | | | | | | W | L | W | L | W | L | W | L | W | L | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Money | 200 | n/a | 400 | n/a | 600 | n/a | 800 | n/a | 1000 | n/a | | | | | Food | 100 | n/a | 200 | n/a | 300 | n/a | 400 | n/a | 500 | n/a | | | | | Morale | 100 | n/a | 100 | n/a | 100 | n/a | 100 | n/a | 100 | n/a | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | Money | 200 | -500 | 400 | -500 | 600 | -500 | 800 | -500 | 1000 | -500 | | | | | Food | 100 | n/a | 200 | n/a | 300 | n/a | 400 | n/a | 500 | n/a | | | | | Morale | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | Money | 200 | -500 | 400 | -500 | 600 | -500 | 800 | -500 | 1000 | -500 | | | | | Food | 100 | n/a | 200 | n/a | 300 | n/a | 400 | n/a | 500 | n/a | | | | | Morale | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 200 | -500 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | Money | 200 | -500 | 400 | -500 | 600 | -500 | 800 | -500 | 1000 | -500 | | | | | Food | 100 | n/a | 200 | n/a | 300 | n/a | 400 | n/a | 500 | n/a | | | | | Morale | 300 | -500 | 300 | -500 | 300 | -500 | 300 | -500 | 300 | -500 |
Level Two War
Definition
A ‘Level Two’ war is essentially one in which it is possible for people to die and for new territories to be conquered/annexed. As such, the magnitude of such a war is high. Sixteen cases can occur when the simulation enters a ‘Level Two’ war.
Description and Rationale
A ‘Level Two’ war state exists so that wars which result in casualties or annexation/conquests of countries can be represented and simulated. In a ‘Level Two’ war state, four parameters are used to determine the outcome of the war namely – differences in army size, money, techno and morale of the two warring Generals. The amount of money and food received as tribute increase in steps of 250 from 1000 to 2000 with the aggression level of the General. The rationale of this rule has already been discussed.
Once again in the absence of a single superiority condition (lesser money than opponent or less techno than opponent), the morale received for a win increases in steps of 100. The rationale of this rule has also already been discussed. The probability of losing, once again, increases by 0.2 per absence of superiority condition. A loss also results in a loss ranging from 500 to 1500 units of money and morale in steps of 500 as per absence of superiority condition.
Also, in a ‘Level Two’ war, certain numbers of people are killed and certain units of territories are annexed depending on the nature of the attacking General. This variation occurs from figures of 50 for ‘peaceful’ Generals to 800 for ‘terrorist’ Generals in factors of 2. The logic behind this dependency is that a more aggressive General would kill more people and conquer more land. Similarly, even if a loss occurs, 200/400 units of people are killed and territories annexed if the difference in army sizes of the two Generals is greater than/lesser than 500.
Nuclear War
Definition
A nuclear war as in real-life is the most destructive form of conflict. It results in massive loss of life and property and is one of the fastest ways to completely destroy a General. It has a very low probability of occurrence.
Description and Rationale
A nuclear war has been included to add colour to the simulation. It accurately depicts the modern warfare techniques available to us in real-time. A nuclear attack can only be committed by a General of type ‘Ruthless’ or ‘Terrorist’ if the General has generated enough techno units to generate nuclear capability. The probability of occurrence if these conditions are met is 0.01 i.e. there is only a 1% chance of a nuclear war.
In a nuclear war, the entire geographical area under the General is completely destroyed and replaced with blanks (unusable land). After execution of the nuclear war, 250000 units of techno are consumed.
Results
Religion
Simulation results for 45 years show the strength (in %) of different types of religions: Year | Hindus | Muslims | Christians | Jews | Buddhists | Atheists | 1 | 16 | 20 | 28 | 0 | 14 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 26 | 36 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 30 | 35 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 36 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 36 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 27 | 33 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 34 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 17 | 22 | 35 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 9 | 17 | 21 | 37 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 18 | 21 | 37 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 38 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 22 | 39 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 42 | 39 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 24 | 39 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 23 | 39 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 23 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 22 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 23 | 41 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 17 | 23 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 41 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 17 | 23 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 16 | 22 | 39 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 16 | 22 | 38 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 15 | 22 | 39 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 15 | 21 | 40 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 26 | 15 | 22 | 40 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 16 | 22 | 42 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 16 | 21 | 42 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 29 | 15 | 22 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 14 | 21 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 14 | 20 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 14 | 20 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 33 | 15 | 19 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 14 | 19 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 35 | 14 | 19 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 36 | 14 | 18 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 15 | 18 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 38 | 15 | 18 | 36 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 39 | 15 | 18 | 36 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 40 | 15 | 17 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 41 | 14 | 17 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 42 | 14 | 18 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 43 | 14 | 18 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 44 | 14 | 19 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 45 | 14 | 19 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 24 |
These figures are roughly approximate to real-life statistics as far as the simulated religions are concerned independently of others. Year | No. of Places of Worship | No. of Religious Societies | No. of Monuments | No. of People in Religious Societies | 10 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 161 | 20 | 10 | 20 | 2 | 267 | 30 | 18 | 30 | 3 | 422 | 40 | 28 | 40 | 4 | 579 | 50 | 35 | 50 | 5 | 699 |
These figures reflect the development of the culture of the society every decade. The statistics indicate that the society is rapidly developing a rich culture with the number of religious societies increasing in steps of 10 for every 10 years.
It may be concluded based on these simulated results that the artificial society is fairly consistent with the behaviours of a real-life society and can be used as a statistical model for the same.
War
The simulation on war is an extensive mathematical model which seeks to find the winner based on initially random resource allocations. It is in essence, a massive optimization problem which is highly dependent on real-world situations.
Figure 8. Sample log from the simulation of War
The mathematical model on War depends on factors such as resources available – food, technology, money and morale and resources required – based on the different types of people present in the simulation. The mathematical model returns different results each time which explore various possible permutations and combinations possible during the course of war.
For the purpose of adding a more realistic feel to the simulation, nuclear capability has also been added as a parameter.
Figure 9. Nuclear Warfare
The results of the war are fairly accurate as can be examined from the Logs generated. They closely depict real-life war scenarios and the reactions of the Generals are based on this correspondence.
References
Hetland, M. L. (2005). Beginning Python: From Novice to Professional.
Apress. Langtangen, H. P. Python Scripting for Computational Science Springer.
PyGame Basics. (n.d.). Retrieved June 2010, from GPWiki.org:
http://gpwiki.org/index.php/Python:Pygame_basics