Evolution of new markets: US 19th c natural ice
In the first two chapters of the book “The evolution of new markets”, Geroski endeavors to explain the formation of new markets by disruptive technologies, the source of these tech discontinuities, and the various factors and common patterns in the formation of these new markets. Understanding the process or idea of new market formation, Geroski explains, can help in understanding the future of existing/new markets.
Geroski argues that innovation can be driven by both demand-pull and supply-push. However, the route to adoption in these two cases is generally different. Demand-pull mostly occurs when there’s a specific well articulated demand for a certain product in the consumers’ mind. This pulls out the most relevant new technology and enables producers to work towards that specific demand.
Most new technologies are, however, pushed up by supply. These emerge from an initial original breakthrough, after which multiple branches of tech trajectories get built on top of the original breakthrough. Of these different trajectories, one or more may ultimately flower into 'the' good or service, which comes to define a particular market. At first, product/service development in this case is driven by a general/ inchoate demand before consumer usage and understanding helps articulate specific demand helping refine product features to consumers’ tastes.
In the case of Ice Industry in the 1800-1900’s, a specific and growing demand for cooling brought forth multiple innovations from harvested ice to machine-made ice to electromechanical refrigeration. In each case, the new and superior technology superseded the previous one disrupting existing markets and bringing the demise of many firms that weren’t able to handle the tech discontinuity that these new technologies brought with them.
In general, innovative folks who identify the need for it first and foremost