Technology Forecasting, History and Exponential Technology Development
Historical Background
Technology Forecasting is a product of the 20th century. Prior forecasting efforts were largely based upon the assumption and guidance of recognized experts in a given field and little more scientific thought was put into a forecast. Beginning in the 1930’s, a much more structured and formulated approach was placed upon the investigation, research, and predictability of future technologies. The United States Government played a critical role in emergence of technology forecasting. One of the earliest examples of forecasting can be found in the 1937 publication of Technological Trends and National Policy, Including the Social Implications of New Inventions. The report predicted the wide use and significant impact of innovations such as plastics, television, and synthetic rubber among others. (Halsey, 1937)
During the Second World War, technical and resource constraints impacted the industrialization and mobilization efforts of companies in the country. To address these issues, the government established the Scientific Advisory Board, which was charged with providing guidance on technological developments over the 20 years after the war ended. The nation also experienced a large increase in the number of academically trained scientists from the 1940s to the 1960s. During this time the growth in the number of Scientists in the United States outpaced the overall population. Conversely, the percentage of dollars invested in Research and Development outpaced the Gross National Product of the United States. (Wiley, n.d.) The growth in scientific study and technology forecasting was spurred by several factors, not the least of which was the race to outer space between the United States and the Soviet Union.
In 1972, the Technology Assessment Act was passed which established the office of Technology Assessment. The purpose was “for the Congress as an aid in the identification and consideration of existing and probable impacts of technological
Technology Forecasting is a product of the 20th century. Prior forecasting efforts were largely based upon the assumption and guidance of recognized experts in a given field and little more scientific thought was put into a forecast. Beginning in the 1930’s, a much more structured and formulated approach was placed upon the investigation, research, and predictability of future technologies. The United States Government played a critical role in emergence of technology forecasting. One of the earliest examples of forecasting can be found in the 1937 publication of Technological Trends and National Policy, Including the Social Implications of New Inventions. The report predicted the wide use and significant impact of innovations such as plastics, television, and synthetic rubber among others. (Halsey, 1937)
During the Second World War, technical and resource constraints impacted the industrialization and mobilization efforts of companies in the country. To address these issues, the government established the Scientific Advisory Board, which was charged with providing guidance on technological developments over the 20 years after the war ended. The nation also experienced a large increase in the number of academically trained scientists from the 1940s to the 1960s. During this time the growth in the number of Scientists in the United States outpaced the overall population. Conversely, the percentage of dollars invested in Research and Development outpaced the Gross National Product of the United States. (Wiley, n.d.) The growth in scientific study and technology forecasting was spurred by several factors, not the least of which was the race to outer space between the United States and the Soviet Union.
In 1972, the Technology Assessment Act was passed which established the office of Technology Assessment. The purpose was “for the Congress as an aid in the identification and consideration of existing and probable impacts of technological
References: Fuller, John. (2012) How Wirth 's Law Works. Retrieved on April 27th, 2013 from http://computer.howstuffworks.com/wirths-law1.htm Halsey, E. A. (1937). Technological trends and national policy, report of National Resources Committee Kennedy, Randall (2009). Windows 7 Brings Hardware/Software Harmony. Oct. 13, 2009. Retrieved April 23rd, 2013 from http://www.pcworld.com/article/173600/windows_7_brings_hardware_software_harmony.html Kurzweil, Ray (2001) Martino, J. P. (1980). TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING--AN OVERVIEW. Management Science, 26(1), 28-33 National Research Council. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies . Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2009 Public Law 92-484. 92nd Congress, H.R. 10243. October 13, 1972. The Technology Assessment Act of 1972 Walter, Chip (2005). Kryder 's law. Scientific American, 0036-8733, 2005 Aug, Vol. 293, Issue 2. Retrieved April 23rd, 2013 from http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=kryders-law Zaimović, T