Technoogy Forecasting
Technological Forecasting by Jack R. Meredith and Samuel J. Mantel, Jr.
University of Cincinnati
Forecasting is hard, particularly of the future. [Anonymous]
Forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and following directions given by a person who is looking out the back window. [Anonymous]
Technology is the application of science or art. All projects rest on a technological base. They are concerned with using science and art to accomplish some goals. Indeed, most projects rest on a base formed by many technologies. When a project is initiated, decisions must be made about which of the relevant and available technologies to employ. At times, a choice must be made between beginning the project immediately, using currently available technologies, or delaying the project in order to adopt a superior technology that is expected but is not currently available.
In addition to technological choices made for the project itself, it may be necessary to forecast the technologies with which our technological choices and our project results will interact. Our systems must be reasonably compatible with those in the environment that do or will exist across their expected life.
Both reasons for forecasting technology go beyond the obvious need to plan for the technological future. Such planning may or may not be the subject of a special project. For many organizations, technological planning is an ongoing function of management. But whether planning is done as a routine or on a project basis, technological forecasting is required.
We define technological forecasting as the process of predicting the future characteristics and timing of technology. When possible, the prediction will be quantified, made through a specific logic, and will estimate the timing and degree of change in technological parameters, attributes, and capabilities.
As with idea generation, few project managers are engaged with projects at the
University of Cincinnati
Forecasting is hard, particularly of the future. [Anonymous]
Forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and following directions given by a person who is looking out the back window. [Anonymous]
Technology is the application of science or art. All projects rest on a technological base. They are concerned with using science and art to accomplish some goals. Indeed, most projects rest on a base formed by many technologies. When a project is initiated, decisions must be made about which of the relevant and available technologies to employ. At times, a choice must be made between beginning the project immediately, using currently available technologies, or delaying the project in order to adopt a superior technology that is expected but is not currently available.
In addition to technological choices made for the project itself, it may be necessary to forecast the technologies with which our technological choices and our project results will interact. Our systems must be reasonably compatible with those in the environment that do or will exist across their expected life.
Both reasons for forecasting technology go beyond the obvious need to plan for the technological future. Such planning may or may not be the subject of a special project. For many organizations, technological planning is an ongoing function of management. But whether planning is done as a routine or on a project basis, technological forecasting is required.
We define technological forecasting as the process of predicting the future characteristics and timing of technology. When possible, the prediction will be quantified, made through a specific logic, and will estimate the timing and degree of change in technological parameters, attributes, and capabilities.
As with idea generation, few project managers are engaged with projects at the
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