The Academy of Management Journal
Academy of Management Journal 2008, Vol. 51, No. 3, 413–435.
MOMENTUM OR DECELERATION? THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL REFLECTIONS ON THE ANALYSIS OF ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE
NIKOLAUS BECK University of Lugano ¨ JOSEF BRUDERL MICHAEL WOYWODE University of Mannheim
Research on organizational change has consistently shown that prior change increases the probability of further change, which supports the view that repetitive momentum governs change processes. We challenge this consensus, offering theoretical arguments for the opposite: Change propensity decreases as changes accumulate. We argue that unobserved heterogeneity in the inherent change propensity of organizations has biased prior results. Analyses of three data sets yielded positive effects of prior change on further change when we used the methodology of earlier studies. However, fixed-effects models that control for heterogeneity yielded negative effects. We conclude that deceleration, not repetitive momentum, governs change processes.
The analysis of organizational change has become one of the most prominent topics in organizational research. Change— conceptualized as the discrete modification of structural organizational elements— has been the object of a large number of studies ever since the seminal considerations of Hannan and Freeman (1984) raised interest in the relationships among change, inertia, and the failure of organizations. Initially, studies examined the consequences of change, basically, concentrating on the risk of organizational failure as a consequence of change (see the reviews by Barnett and ¨ Carroll [1995], Baum [1996], and Bruderl, Preisendorfer, and Ziegler [1996]). At a later stage, studies ¨ on organizational change also investigated the “causes” of change. Within this research field, the effect of prior change on the likelihood of further change has become a popular topic (e.g., Amburgey, Kelly, & Barnett, 1993; Dobrev, Kim, & Hannan, 2001; Kelly & Amburgey, 1991). Meanwhile,
MOMENTUM OR DECELERATION? THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL REFLECTIONS ON THE ANALYSIS OF ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE
NIKOLAUS BECK University of Lugano ¨ JOSEF BRUDERL MICHAEL WOYWODE University of Mannheim
Research on organizational change has consistently shown that prior change increases the probability of further change, which supports the view that repetitive momentum governs change processes. We challenge this consensus, offering theoretical arguments for the opposite: Change propensity decreases as changes accumulate. We argue that unobserved heterogeneity in the inherent change propensity of organizations has biased prior results. Analyses of three data sets yielded positive effects of prior change on further change when we used the methodology of earlier studies. However, fixed-effects models that control for heterogeneity yielded negative effects. We conclude that deceleration, not repetitive momentum, governs change processes.
The analysis of organizational change has become one of the most prominent topics in organizational research. Change— conceptualized as the discrete modification of structural organizational elements— has been the object of a large number of studies ever since the seminal considerations of Hannan and Freeman (1984) raised interest in the relationships among change, inertia, and the failure of organizations. Initially, studies examined the consequences of change, basically, concentrating on the risk of organizational failure as a consequence of change (see the reviews by Barnett and ¨ Carroll [1995], Baum [1996], and Bruderl, Preisendorfer, and Ziegler [1996]). At a later stage, studies ¨ on organizational change also investigated the “causes” of change. Within this research field, the effect of prior change on the likelihood of further change has become a popular topic (e.g., Amburgey, Kelly, & Barnett, 1993; Dobrev, Kim, & Hannan, 2001; Kelly & Amburgey, 1991). Meanwhile,