EST330
Bhavna Sharma
EST 330 TA Notes
Week 2
Predictions of Natural Disasters
Most disasters are unpredicted 99% of the time
With earthquakes, history will tell us that one is possible, but it can’t say when one will occur, or at what time, or at what magnitude
With tropical cyclones we know of the existence of a storm about 7 or 8 days in advance, but there is still great uncertainty about exact location of landfall until 24 hours before.
Useful tools: satellites- ability to see where tropical cyclones are or where a volcano begins to heat up. Satellites are also used in making predictions about the potential for an area to burn. The two tools used here are Greeness mapping and the Fire Potential Index (FPI)
Super powerful computers can track storms: need phenomenal amounts of computer power to record all the data points for tropical cyclones
Doppler radar can detect a signature on the back end of a tornado, if a “hook” is detected a warning is automatically triggered, this gives people precious additional seconds to seek shelter
Gas analyzers-Detect a build up sulphur dioxide in volcanoes
Infrared spectroscopy can detect the heat signature of magma as rises through a volcano
Strain Gauges detect ground movement, a possible precursor to an earthquake
Radon build up in well water can indicate an imminent earthquake
Animal behavior
Preventive Measures
Usually the answer is no, there are no preventive measures we cannot stop natural hazard events from taking place we can however, engage in mitigation strategies to reduce damages
Can we prohibit people living in a certain area? A disaster prone area: we can increase insurance rates.
Warnings:
-When do we warn? How should we warn
-Unrealistic optimism
-However if you over warn, if nothing happens people will not take warnings seriously on another occasion. Example: Hurricane fatigue
Philosophical Change
Equilibrium paradigm, maintaining the status quo versus Disturbance theory
Stafford
EST 330 TA Notes
Week 2
Predictions of Natural Disasters
Most disasters are unpredicted 99% of the time
With earthquakes, history will tell us that one is possible, but it can’t say when one will occur, or at what time, or at what magnitude
With tropical cyclones we know of the existence of a storm about 7 or 8 days in advance, but there is still great uncertainty about exact location of landfall until 24 hours before.
Useful tools: satellites- ability to see where tropical cyclones are or where a volcano begins to heat up. Satellites are also used in making predictions about the potential for an area to burn. The two tools used here are Greeness mapping and the Fire Potential Index (FPI)
Super powerful computers can track storms: need phenomenal amounts of computer power to record all the data points for tropical cyclones
Doppler radar can detect a signature on the back end of a tornado, if a “hook” is detected a warning is automatically triggered, this gives people precious additional seconds to seek shelter
Gas analyzers-Detect a build up sulphur dioxide in volcanoes
Infrared spectroscopy can detect the heat signature of magma as rises through a volcano
Strain Gauges detect ground movement, a possible precursor to an earthquake
Radon build up in well water can indicate an imminent earthquake
Animal behavior
Preventive Measures
Usually the answer is no, there are no preventive measures we cannot stop natural hazard events from taking place we can however, engage in mitigation strategies to reduce damages
Can we prohibit people living in a certain area? A disaster prone area: we can increase insurance rates.
Warnings:
-When do we warn? How should we warn
-Unrealistic optimism
-However if you over warn, if nothing happens people will not take warnings seriously on another occasion. Example: Hurricane fatigue
Philosophical Change
Equilibrium paradigm, maintaining the status quo versus Disturbance theory
Stafford