"Decision making under certainty uncertainty and risk" Essays and Research Papers

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    SOLVING PROBLEMS AND MAKING DECISIONS Sharon October 2012 INDEX Background of the organization Description of the problem Analysis of the problem Resolution of the problem Implementation and communication of the solution BACKGROUND: I work for‚ which is the largest YMCA in Europe. We are a registered charity working in many diverse areas including supported housing‚ health & fitness‚ senior programme‚ childcare‚ youth work and restaurants for residents and for the public.

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    Critical Thinking and Decision Making Critical thinking means correct thinking in the pursuit of relevant and reliable knowledge about the world. A person who thinks critically can ask appropriate questions‚ gather relevant information‚ efficiently and creatively sort through this information‚ reason logically from this information‚ and come to reliable and trustworthy conclusions about the world that enable one to live and act successfully in it. Critical thinking enables an individual to be

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    Certainty and Doubt

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    William Lyon Phelps stated an absolute certainty will make anything possible‚ but Bertrand Russell believed that our opinions should always have some sort of doubt. This conflict between optimism and doubt is most importantly meant to be kept balanced. This balance of doubt and optimism can be seen in the real world in many ways such as in sports or school. When Phelps said that we need to have an “absolute sense of certainty‚” he meant a setting your mind to it mentality. If you can imagine it

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    Solving problems and making decisions My Role at the SUFC academy is facility supervisor; I’m responsible for the “leisure” side of the organization such as the maintenance of the building‚ catering‚ security rota management for facility staff‚ and match day co-ordination From the match day co-ordination‚ our main problem is our car park‚ as it is not substantial enough in size for the volume of traffic we get every Saturday and Sunday mornings Parents resort to parking anywhere they can if it

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    Is Certainty Possible

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    How Is Certainty Possible? Certainty is defined as being free of doubt. In philosophy is there such a thing that we know without any doubt? Do we know anything with absolute certainty? Although we may believe to have genuine knowledge in some cases‚ there are other cases in which we do not know‚ but only think we know. Now therein lies the problem‚ how do we distinguish what is absolutely certain and what is not? This is why the idea of knowledge and certainty is so important. Both empiricists

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    BP Decision Making Biases

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    The decision making biases greatly impacted the decisions made by those involved in the oil spill. Between both organizations‚ BP and Transocean‚ and there inability to agree and make adjustments caused BP to be publicly criticized. The cognitive bias‚ overconfidence‚ is explained by the Business Insider as being “too confident” about one’s abilities. (Lee & Leibowitz‚ 2015). The worker’s on the rig presented this specific bias when making decisions. When the data examined revealed warning signs

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    does not only apply to the corporate world. As a manager‚ the responsibility of making decisions falls on you and can impact both your life and the people surrounding you. These decisions should stray away from biases and ultimately uplift the company as a whole. However‚ there are many key components that help make a manager a successful decision maker. Moreover‚ managers should be able to be free of making decisions that are ideally in the best interest of the company regardless of being worried

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    1. What is inflation risk? Inflation risk is the decision when to wait to buy an item and risking if the product went down in price or up in price. 2. What are opportunity costs? Give an example of an opportunity cost. Opportunity costs are things you give up when you make a choice. An example of a opportunity cost is to give up your newspaper subscription so you can now have a magazine subscription. 3. What is the time value of money? The time value of money is the increase on a value of money

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    Two well-known contributors in the team decision making field recently published a book on best practices (Sunstein & Hastie‚ 2015). Sunstein and Hastie argued that current techniques in team decision making have neglected research and‚ as a result‚ have a tendency to end unfruitfully. This neglect is problematic‚ as research shows that teams can potentially outperform individuals and there are tasks that only cross-functional teams with complementary skills can perform (Hinz‚ Tindale‚ & Vollrath

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    Data-Based Decision Making

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    Data-Based Decision Making Jennifer Rebelo EDC 6103 September 6‚ 2012 According to the Data Quality Campaign of 2011‚ every state now has the opportunity "from parents to policymakers‚ to use data to inform decisions that will improve student outcomes and system performance" (Data for Action‚ 2011). Studies have indicated that 36 states collect and provide information in regards to students past performance‚ and 33 states actually produce reports that measure students’ individual

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