Ch. 1: Thinking Critically With Psychological Science Outline The Need for Psychological Science Two phenomena- hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence- illustrate why we can’t rely solely on intuition and common sense. The Limits of Intuition and Common Sense Our intuition can lead us astray. Did We Know It All Along? Hindsight Bias Hindsight bias- The tendency to believe‚ after learning an outcome‚ that one would have foreseen it. (I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon)
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A Decison Making Model There is a tendancy to make decisions automatically rather than taking a systematic approach. It is still important to monitor yourself‚ and when possible follow this decision making model (Smith‚ 2002[2]): Detect - Detect that a change has occured Estimate - Estimate the need for action to adapt to the change Choose - Choose the most desirable outcome Identify - Identification of actions which will successfully control the change Do - Carry out the chosen actions
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positive light‚ it follows that memories related to ourselves will be seen in a self-enhancing light. This suggests that copy asking people to remember a situation in a positive light should encourage an egocentric memory bias‚ e.g.: ’remember when you ’. In the same way‚ egocentric bias can result from exaggerating the difficulty of past experiences: ’remember how hard it was to ’. This idea is well illustrated in a campaign for National Rail ’s Senior Railcard‚ where a dated-looking picture of a
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Chapter 1 hindsight bias - Tendency to believe that after learning an outcome‚ that we would’ve foreseen it. Once we’re told something‚ it seems obvious. hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate our intuition scientific inquiry‚ curious skepticism‚ and humility can help shift to reality critical thinking - thinking that doesn’t blindly accept arguments and conclusions. Rather‚ it examines assumptions‚ discerns hidden values‚ evaluates evidence‚ and assesses conclusions
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in James Welch’s Fools Crow High expectations and overconfidence can almost always lead to disappoint. Hindsight biases shed light on the show the clues and signs that made a certain outcome occur before it happened afterward. The hindsight bias is that “I knew it all along” phenomenon that is only ever stated after all the facts have been presented. The basic example of the hindsight bias is when after seeing the outcome of a possible unforeseeable event a person then believes he or she "knew
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Anomalies to Efficient Market Hypothesis and the extent to which they can be explained by behavioural finance theories Finance that is based on rational and logical theories‚ such as the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). These theories assume that people‚ for the most part‚ behave rationally and predictably. The Efficient market hypothesis assumes that financial markets incorporate all public information and assets that share prices reflect all relevant
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are better than others : not biased 1: free from bias; especially : free from all prejudice and favoritism : eminently fair 2: having an expected value equal to a population parameter being estimated (Webster) Hidden Bias Tests measure unconscious‚ or automatic‚ biases. Willingness to examine your own possible biases is an important step in understanding the roots of stereotypes and prejudice in our society. Hidden Bias Tests measure unconscious‚ or automatic‚ biases. Your
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com. 2014.What is rational decision making? definition and meaning. [online] Available at: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/rational-decision-making.html#ixzz2ptXjLb8U [Accessed: 9 Jan 2014]. BusinessDictionary.com. 2014.What is anchoring bias? definition and meaning. [online] Available at: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/anchoring-bias.html [Accessed: 9 Jan 2014]. Janis‚ I. L. 1982. Groupthink. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. Janis‚ I. L. 1972. Victims of groupthink. Boston: Houghton
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Did You Know It All Along? • Hindsight bias Module 3: Self-Concept: Who Am I? • Self-concept • Self-schema • Cultural differences in sense of self (independent vs. interdependent) • What is the best predictor of future behavior? • Planning fallacy • How good are we at predicting our own behaviors and feelings (e.g.‚ affective forecasting‚ immune neglect) • Dual attitudes Module 4: Self-serving Bias • Self-serving bias • Self-esteem • Better-than-average
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Organizational Behavior‚ 15e (Robbins/Judge) Chapter 6 Perception and Individual Decision Making 1) ________ is the process by which individuals organize and interpret their sensory impressions in order to give meaning to their environment. A) Sensation B) Impression C) Apprehension D) Attribution E) Perception Answer: E Explanation: E) Perception is defined as a process by which individuals organize and interpret their sensory impressions in order to give meaning to their environment
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