approach because of their faith in human intuition. Intuition can lead you astray. We presume that we could have foreseen what we know happened. Finding out something has happened makes it seem inevitable. Psychologists call this 20/20 hindsight vision the hindsight bias (the tendency to believe‚ after learning an outcome‚ that one would have foreseen it) also know as the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon. Our everyday thinking is not limited to out after-the-fact common sense‚ but also by our human tendency
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AP Psychology Midterm Study Guide #1 Unit 1: Psychology’s History and Approaches 1.Definition of Psychology? Disciplines it is rooted in? Psychology is the science of behavior and mental process; it seeks to answer how and why we think‚ feel‚ act as we do. Psychology is rooted in philosophy and biology. 2.What is the difference between nativism and empiricism? Which ancient philosophers/early psychologist were nativist? which were empiricist? Nativism is the argument that all our skills
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The unstructured problem usually faced by the upper level manager. This happen because the lower level manager handle the routine decision themselves and let the upper level manager deal with the decision they find unusual or difficult. The table below will shows us the different between programmed and non-programmed decisions. Characteristic Programmed Decision Nonprogrammed Decision Type of problem Structured Unstructured Managerial level Lower level Upper level Frequency Repetitive‚ routine
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exchange ratio in stock mergers. What positions would risk arbitragers take in this deal? How would their positions change if the board appears to favour Quest offer? 4. Consider the Worldcom-MCI merger and the Qwest-US West merger. Trying to avoid hindsight bias‚ should the board of MCI and US West have accepted these offers? What is the obligation to shareholders? Was that obligation fulfilled? What about WorldCom and Qwest? Did their shareholders benefit? 5. Which offer should MCI accept? Why? 6.
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NEED FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE 1-1: How do hindsight bias‚ overconfidence‚ and the tendency to perceive order in random events illustrate why science-based answers are more valid than those based on intuition and common sense? Scientific inquiry can help us sift reality‚ from illusion. Feelings‚ intuition‚ overconfidence‚ and our natural tendency to perceive the outcome usually based on how we interpret a given situation. Three phenomena- hindsight bias‚ judgmental overconfidence‚ and our tendency
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Perception and Decision Making Individuals with in organizations have to make important decisions everyday‚ the choices they make greatly effects their outcomes. How individuals in organizations make decisions and the quality of their final choices are largely influenced by their perceptions. During this examination of the role of perception in the decision making process‚ we will be discussing the meaning of perception and how an individual’s perception of others can impact an organization’s
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In the scenario given above‚ it is noticed that Sarah and her friends have a common opinion that is cognitive biased‚ which means that they tend to ignore the prior known probabilities of a subject and failing to incorporate with a specific topic. According to Sarah‚ the drivers of the red cars often get the speeding tickets at a higher chance than drivers of the other cars with other colors. In order to analyze and address this personal opinion‚ fallacy and heuristic will be identified and explained
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Chapter 11 – Decision Making What is Decision Making? * Decision making – the process of developing a commitment to some course of action * Can also be described as a process of problem solving * Problem – a perceived gap between an existing state and a desired state Well-Structured Problems * Well-structured problems – a problem for which the existing state is clear‚ the desired state is clear‚ and how to get from one state to the other is fairly obvious * Decision making takes
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Chapter 5 Perception and Individual Decision Making MULTIPLE CHOICE What is Perception? 1. What is the process by which individuals organize and interpret their sensory impressions in order to give meaning to their environment? a. interpretation b. environmental analysis c. social verification d. outlook e. perception (e; Easy; Perception; p. 139) 2. What is the relationship between what one perceives and objective reality? a. They are the same. b. They can be substantially different. c
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assumptions when forming concepts Choosing labels Giving advice Common criticisms of social psychology “If social psych research is driven by researchers values‚ how can it be scientific?” “Isn’t social psychology just common sense? Hindsight bias: the tendency to exaggerate one’s ability to have foreseen how something turned out after learning the outcome. Invoked after we know the facts 3 8/20/2012 Forming and Testing Hypotheses Theory Integrated set of principles that
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