5 Forecasts and 7 Predictions for 2010-2020 That Shape Innovation and Economic Growth
5 Forecasts and 7 Predictions For 2010- 2020 That Shape Innovation And Economic Growth
What lies ahead, now that America’s Lost Decade and Asia’s Best Decade are behind us? I just returned from a month in Singapore, China and Korea and, for the first time in a dozen years, I’m not going to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. So you can tell what frame of mind I am in.
I believe 5 Big Trends will shape the future decade. The 5 trends are:
1- Rise and Fall of Nations (US and Europe falling, Asia rising).
2- Rise and Fall of Generations (Boomers falling, Gen Y rising).
3- Behavioral Modification of Organizations (social media-ization of businesse, health, education, politics).
4- Urbanization of world’s population.
5- Global warming (winners and losers in the restructuring of the global economy).
Within this context of 5 Big Trends, here are 7 specific forecasts.
1- Peak Globalization:
Just as the world globalized in the second half of the 19th century, only to return to nationalism in the first half of the 20th, so too will we see a strong backlash against globalization in the decade ahead. Over the past 10 years, the expansion of the middle class in China and India has been matched by the immisseration of the middle class in the US. Corporation profits have gone to CEOs, top managers, and the financial elite, not employees or workers. In the near future, they get angry and demand a greater share of the pie.
Top corporations and financial institutions of Europe and America have also de-coupled from their nation-states to become global, putting personal and shareholder interests above national interests. As China, India, Korea, India, Japan and other countries pursue strictly national strategies, Western governments and publics increasingly counter with theirs.
Finally, the Boeing 787 fiasco highlights the problems with extreme outsourcing of complex systems. As Boeing has moved to insource and control the 787, so too other US and European
What lies ahead, now that America’s Lost Decade and Asia’s Best Decade are behind us? I just returned from a month in Singapore, China and Korea and, for the first time in a dozen years, I’m not going to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. So you can tell what frame of mind I am in.
I believe 5 Big Trends will shape the future decade. The 5 trends are:
1- Rise and Fall of Nations (US and Europe falling, Asia rising).
2- Rise and Fall of Generations (Boomers falling, Gen Y rising).
3- Behavioral Modification of Organizations (social media-ization of businesse, health, education, politics).
4- Urbanization of world’s population.
5- Global warming (winners and losers in the restructuring of the global economy).
Within this context of 5 Big Trends, here are 7 specific forecasts.
1- Peak Globalization:
Just as the world globalized in the second half of the 19th century, only to return to nationalism in the first half of the 20th, so too will we see a strong backlash against globalization in the decade ahead. Over the past 10 years, the expansion of the middle class in China and India has been matched by the immisseration of the middle class in the US. Corporation profits have gone to CEOs, top managers, and the financial elite, not employees or workers. In the near future, they get angry and demand a greater share of the pie.
Top corporations and financial institutions of Europe and America have also de-coupled from their nation-states to become global, putting personal and shareholder interests above national interests. As China, India, Korea, India, Japan and other countries pursue strictly national strategies, Western governments and publics increasingly counter with theirs.
Finally, the Boeing 787 fiasco highlights the problems with extreme outsourcing of complex systems. As Boeing has moved to insource and control the 787, so too other US and European