case study
1. Forecasting of non-standardized products:
Forecasting is the process of Estimating future demand for planning purposes. Forecasting is classified into two main categories, namely, qualitative and quantitative forecasting. In forecasting nonstandardized products, qualitative methods are used. But I am going to give a brief explanation about the quantitative methods.
1.1 Quantitative Methods:
1.1.1 Stationary Series Methods:
Moving Averages Method:
Moving average of order N is the arithmetic average for the most recent N observations
Exponential smoothing method:
It combines both demand and forecast. The Current forecast is the weighted average of the last forecast and the current demand 1.1.2 Trend based methods:
Regression Analysis: fits straight line to a set of data
Holt’s Method : type of double exponential smoothing. Allows for simultaneous smoothing on the series and on the trend
1.2 Qualitative methods:
In forecasting for non-standardized products, qualitative methods are used. Those methods are more or less subjective. The other forecasting type is called Quantitative methods. Following are the main qualitative forecasting methods:
1.2.1 DELPHI TECHNIQUE:
This method is based on group agreement. A questionnaire or a survey is sent to a group of experts (usually sales experts). Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their identity is not revealed, even after the completion of the final report. This prevents the authority, personality, or reputation of some participants from controlling others in the process. Moreover, it makes the participants free (to some extent) from their personal biases, allows free expression of opinions, encourages open critique, and facilitates admission of errors when revising earlier judgments.
The survey contains a set of questions about the product to be produced. The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The
Forecasting is the process of Estimating future demand for planning purposes. Forecasting is classified into two main categories, namely, qualitative and quantitative forecasting. In forecasting nonstandardized products, qualitative methods are used. But I am going to give a brief explanation about the quantitative methods.
1.1 Quantitative Methods:
1.1.1 Stationary Series Methods:
Moving Averages Method:
Moving average of order N is the arithmetic average for the most recent N observations
Exponential smoothing method:
It combines both demand and forecast. The Current forecast is the weighted average of the last forecast and the current demand 1.1.2 Trend based methods:
Regression Analysis: fits straight line to a set of data
Holt’s Method : type of double exponential smoothing. Allows for simultaneous smoothing on the series and on the trend
1.2 Qualitative methods:
In forecasting for non-standardized products, qualitative methods are used. Those methods are more or less subjective. The other forecasting type is called Quantitative methods. Following are the main qualitative forecasting methods:
1.2.1 DELPHI TECHNIQUE:
This method is based on group agreement. A questionnaire or a survey is sent to a group of experts (usually sales experts). Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their identity is not revealed, even after the completion of the final report. This prevents the authority, personality, or reputation of some participants from controlling others in the process. Moreover, it makes the participants free (to some extent) from their personal biases, allows free expression of opinions, encourages open critique, and facilitates admission of errors when revising earlier judgments.
The survey contains a set of questions about the product to be produced. The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The