Conflict between civilizations will be the latest phase in the evolution of conflict in the modern world. Prior to the Treaty of Westphalia, which was a series of peace treaties signed to end the Thirty Year’s War in the Holy Roman Empire and the Eighty Year’s War between Spain and the Dutch Republic, the global conflict were mainly between emperor, absolute monarch that attempted to expand their bureaucracies, armies, economic and above all their territory, until the emergence of France Revolution. Trend of conflict slightly shifted into conflict between nations rather than princes, until it was the culminating on First World War ended into ideological conflict, first among communism, fascism-Nazism and liberal democracy and then communism and liberal democracy during the Cold War era.
Now by the end of cold war and dismemberment of the Soviet Union, international politics move out to another interaction, which is the West and non-Western civilization. Where the people and the governments of non-Western civilization no longer remain the object of history bur rather tends to shape the history.
How and why did civilizations clash? Individuals needed to understand the nature of civilization, where Huntington defines, as cultural entity, such as village, ethnic groups, nationalities, and religious groups all have distinct cultures at different level of heterogeneity. Thus, a civilization is the highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity that people have. This distinguishes human from other species of animals.
From the definition mentioned before, the nature of civilization would be as follows: 1) Civilizations may involve a large number of people, 2) Civilizations might include several nation-states, 3) Civilizations obviously blend, overlap and may include sub civilizations, and 4) Civilizations are dynamic; they rise and fall while they also divide and merge.
Future conflicts would occur on the basis of different civilization through which the global politics will shape. Huntington offer further assessment as to why civilizations will clash. The difference among civilization is basic and natural factor. Therefore, difference does not necessary mean conflict, and conflict does not necessary mean violence but history shows that difference among civilizations have generated the most prolonged and violent conflicts. By globalization, interaction increased, with the high level of interaction intensifying awareness and consciousness of different civilizations. The process of economic modernization and social change throughout the world has weakened the sanctity of nation-states. It leads into identity crisis as to fill this gap the revival of religion in redefining identity seems to fill this gap. The growth of civilization consciousness is to confront any civilizations that increasingly have desire to shape the world in their own style. For example, the West tries to stop those who are trying to influence non-Western styles.
On those bases, differences in culture and religion create differences over policy issue, ranging from human rights to immigration to trade and commerce to the environment. Therefore, the clash of civilization will occur in two levels; first, on the micro scale, adjacent groups along the fault line between civilizations struggle. Second; on the macro-level, states from different civilizations compete for relative politics and economics power, struggle over the control of the international institutions and promote their particular political and religious values.
Hence, the fault line between civilizations replacing the odd conflict between political and ideological boundaries of the Cold War ended by the end of ideological division. Now as the West began to retreat, the colonial empires disappeared and the manifestation of Arab nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism come to fore.
The rallying civilization will also lead to kin-country syndrome. Group or states belonging to one civilization get involved in war with those from a different civilization. They naturally will try to build support by allying from member of their own civilization or ‘kin-country’ for cooperation and coalition. With respect to the fighting in the former Yugoslavia, where the Western manifested sympathy for the Bosnian Muslim and the horrors they suffered at the hand of Serbs as Serbs was mainly supported by Boris Yeltsin government.
Although the conflict might occurs between states and group within the same civilization, but such conflict however are likely to be less intense and less likely to expand than conflicts between civilizations. As the territorial conflict between Ukraine and Russia 1991-1992, where, finally the leader of the two countries effectively negotiating and defusing the issue between the two countries.
The West versus the Rest
As the west now at an extraordinary peak of power in relation to other civilization, the disappearance of superpower opponent with the end of Cold War period, now military conflict among Western states in unthinkable. Thus the West try to dominate the world system by infusing western ideas and values in non-Western countries, though legitimate actions reflecting the interest of the United States and other Western powers. As clear illustration, the IMF and other international economic institutions as clear example how the West try to promote its economics interests and imposes on other nations, the economic policies that they seems appropriate.
Another reason is also difference in power and struggle for military, economic and institutional power are one source of conflict between the West and other civilization, whereas difference in culture, that is basic values and beliefs, are a second source of conflict.
This trend will lead different response from non-Western countries; it can be identified in the following forms:
• Isolation, to insulate their society from the penetration of the West. North Korea is one example.
• Band-wagoning, an attempt to the West and accept its values and institutions. Turkey is one example.
• ‘Balance’ the West by developing economic and military power while still preserving indigenous values and institutions. Another term is to modernize but not to Westernize.
The Torn Countries
Redefining Civilization
As early mentioned above that the nature of civilization is dynamic, they rise and fall. As people differentiate themselves by civilization, countries with large number of peoples of different civilization like Soviet Union and Yugoslavia are candidate for dismemberment. Thus, the leaders of torn civilization or countries tend to pursue bandwagoning strategy to make their country become member of the West, in order to redefining their civilization.
At least there are several requirements for the smooth process of bandwagoning strategy to be met;
1. Its should be generally supported by the political and economic elites
2. Public support
3. The existing dominant ethnic should willing to embrace the convert
Turkey is one important example of this strategy, where it opted to modernize itself by allying with Western block, joining European Union Community, despite the prevalence masses criticism of this policy.
It is not necessary that by bandwagoning strategy torn country will take any possible measure to join the Western block, because since the obstacles will also there. There are those countries which do not or can not join the West rather they compete with the West by allying with other non-Western countries, developing their own economic, military and political power by promoting development and cooperating with other non-Western countries. In this case we see Japan as one good example. In term of transferring military technology, we found China as arm-exporter which been supplying its arm capabilities to most countries in Middle East and majority Muslim nation-states. North Korea with its nuclear progress has been tranfering to Iran and Syria. Thus, the flows of weapon generally from East Asia to the Middle East, formed an emerging collaboration that Huntington called it Confucian-Islamic connection, designed to promote acquisition by its member of the weapon and weapon technologies needed to counter the military power of the West.
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