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Exchange Rate

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Exchange Rate
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1.0 Abstract 2 2.0 Introduction 3 3.0 Objective of the Study 5 4.0 Literature Review 5 5.0 Contents 8 5.1 Factor That Effect Exchange Rates in Long Run 8 5.2 Exchange rates in short run (A supply and demand Analysis) 10 5.3 Factor that determinant exchange rate 11 5.3.1 Shift the demand for domestic assets 11 5.4 Other Factors that effects exchange rates and its volatility 12 5.4.1 International financial crises 12 5.4.2 Speculators effect 12 5.4.3 Central bank intervention policy 13 5.2 The effects of exchange rate and volatility 14 5.2.1 International trade, export and import 14 5.2.2 Foreign direct investment 15 5.3 The Empirical model 18 6.0 Conclusion 20 References 21

1.0 Abstract

This paper prefers theoretical and empirical evidence that exchange rate has negative impact on international trade or export. In this paper, we focus on export of Australian country. We also, offer a simple model of domestic and foreign asset demand to determine the exchange rate of home country. From this model, we can see the result, either the exchange rate are appreciate or depreciate in value. We use annual data from world databank (2012) over the period 1980 to 2012 for this study. We also use Ordinary Least Square (OLS) to fine the relationship between real exchange rate and export trade. The result shows that export are negatively influence by exchange rate volatility. This result gives a significant result and supported by the theory.
2.0 Introduction

Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, both real and nominal exchange rates have fluctuated widely. Under this system, each country’s central bank was obligated to intervene in the foreign exchange market to keep the exchange rate in a narrow band around the previously agree rate. This Bretton Woods system will encourage more open trade, finance and investment and lead to a period of rapid economic growth after World War 2.



References: Huchet-Bourdon, M., and Korinek, J. (2011). To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade. Oecd Trade Policy Working Papers 119. Sabuhi-Sabuli, M. , and Piri, M. (2008). Consideration the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Products Export Price, the Case Study of Iran’s Saffron. Department of Agricultural Economics, p.97-100. McKenzie, M. D. (1999). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows. Journal of Economic Surveys, 13(1), p.71-36. Aguirre, A Michael, N. B. (2011). An impact Analysis of Foreign Exchange Rate volatility on Nigeria’s Export Performance. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 1450-2275. Molaei, I., et al Goldberg, L. S. (2006). In Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy. Retrieved November 12, 2012, from http://www.newyorkfed.org Bocock, J Clark, P. B et al. (2004). A New look at Exchnge Rate Volatility and Trade Flows. International Monetary Fund. Arize, A. C., Osang, T. , & Slottje, D. J. (2000). Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence From Thirteen LDC’s. Journal of Business & Economics Statistics, 18(1). Barkoulas, J. T., Baum, C. F., & Cagglayan, M. (2002). Exchange rate Effect on The Volume and Variability of Trade Flows. Journal of International Money and Finance. Hall, S., et al. (2010). Exchange-rate Volatility and Export Performance: Do Emerging Market Economies Resemble Industrial Countries or Other Developing Country. Economic Modelling. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Harvey, H. (2011). Exchange-Rate Volatility and Industry Trade Between the U.S and Malaysia. Research in International Business and Finance,25 p.127-155. Hayakawa, K., & Kimura, F. (2009). The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade in East Asia. Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, 23, p. 395-406. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Hegerty, S. W. (2007). Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows. Journal of Economic Study,34(3), 211-255. Min, B. S. (2010). Foreign Exchange Rates and FDI Behaviour of Multinational Enterprises: Comparative Analysis Before and After the 1997 Korean Financial Crisis. Journal of Asia Business Studies, 4(2), 100-108. Du, H., & Zhu, Z. (2001). The Effect of Exchange-rate Risk on Export. Journal of Economic Studies, 28(2), 106-121. Aghion, P., et al. (2009). Exchange rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development. Journal of Monetary Economics,58, 494-513. Kularatne, C., & Havemann, R. (2008). Why are Some Exchange Rates More Volatile than Others? Evidence From Transition Economies. School of Economics, University of Cape Town. Arize, A. C., Osang, T., & Slottje ,D. J.( 2000). Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from thirteen LDC 's, American Statistical Association Journal of Aftab, M., Abbas, Z., & Kayani, F. N. (2012). Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Sectoral Export of Pakistant, Journal of Chinese Economic and Studies, 5(3), 215-231 Ozturk, K Flood, R., P., and Rose, A., K. (1999). Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomic Broda, C. & Romalis, J. (2003). Identifying the Relationship between Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility Goudarzi, M., Khanarinejad, K., & Ardakani, Z. (2012). Investigation the role of exchange rate volatility on Iranian pistachio exports, International journal of Agronomy and Russ, K., N. (2011). Exchange Rate Volatility and First-Time Entry by Multinational Firms. Copeland, L. S. (2000). Excahnge Rate and International Finance, 3th Edition Financial Times Prentice Hall.

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