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Globalisering: Vredesvorst of Oorlogsgod?

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Globalisering: Vredesvorst of Oorlogsgod?
Globalisering: Vredesvorst of Oorlogsgod?

Inleiding

Economie is een van de vele vakgebieden die worden geraakt door globalisering. De economische definitie van dit fenomeen is marktintegratie, oftewel het kleiner worden van prijsverschillen binnen staten door toenemende internationale handel.
Economen stellen zich al een tijd de vraag: Leidt deze marktintegratie tot meer of minder gewapende conflicten tussen staten? In dit artikel zal ik niet proberen hier een antwoord op te geven. Wel zal ik de controverse rondom dit vraagstuk schetsen, waarbij ik de twee grote (en tegengestelde) visies en één alternatieve visies uitlicht. Vervolgens zal ik beargumenteren waarom de beantwoording van dit vraagstuk niet beperkt moet worden tot de economische visie.

Het debat

Het debat over de invloed van marktintegratie op gewapend conflict groeit op oude wortels . De eerste 20e eeuwse stellingname in dit debat kunnen wij toeschrijven aan Norman Angell. In zijn The Great Illusion (1912) poogt hij aannemelijk te maken dat oorlog in tijden van grote economische afhankelijkheid een "erg onwaarschijnlijk gebeurtenis van collectieve irrationaliteit" is. De achterliggende gedachte was dat marktintegratie een pacificerend effect zal hebben vanwege de hoge economische kosten van conflicten. Deze opvatting werd onderdeel van het liberale gedachtengoed, welke de komende decennia de toon zou zetten in het economische denken. Hirschman wordt genoemd als eerste criticus van deze visie. Hij was de eerste, in 1945, die de negatieve gevolgen uitlichtte van assymetrische marktintegratie (handelsbanden die niet voor beide partijen even voordelig zijn). Zijn visie werd verder uitgewerkt door ‘dependency' en neo-Marxistische theoretici. "Zij benadrukken dat handel niet altijd netto voordeel oplevert en netto juist kosten kan meebrengen" Barbieri refereert hieraan als de ‘sceptische visie'. Ten slotte hebben ‘realistici' van oudsher de opvatting dat "de invloed van handel ondergeschikt is

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