MATH201 Project 4
1. Think more about the probability of each event. Put numbers on each of the 8 prophecy fulfillments. Some of the probabilities will be subjective, but put values that you feel make sense. Do not put probabilities of 0 or 1.
Given the new probabilities you associated with each prophecy, what is the probability that all 8 happened in sequence?
1. Bethlehem was one of the smallest cities in the land of Judah. This means that out of the 1 million or so people that lived in Judah, only around 8,000 lived Bethlehem. So there is a minute probability that Christ would be born in that specific town. There are two steps to finding this probability. The first is to find the probability of anyone being born in Bethlehem, which would be 8000/1,000,000 or approx. .008. Next, the probability of a specific person being born in bethlehem, which is 1/8000, or .000125. To find the probability of Christ being born in Bethlehem, you combine the two probabilities, to get .000001
2. For Isaiah to have prophesied John the baptist would preach the coming of Jesus as the Messiah is a little more difficult to estimate. One could make it simple and say that the probability is merely 1 out of the approx 1,000,000 people in Judah. however, this is technically the probability of anyone coming before Jesus and preaching his coming. John the baptist came from a family in the Jewish priesthood. This was especially significant, and more rare than just anyone coming out of the population. Not only this, according to Matthew, John the baptist’s father was visited by the Angel Gabriel and informed about the coming of his son John, who would make way the pathway for Jesus. This makes the probability that much more intricate. So if the probability of anyone coming forward to preach Jesus before he comes is approx. 1/1,000,000 or .000001, The probability that this person is of a priestly family is approx .00002, and the probability that this person has had a miraculous encounter is about
Given the new probabilities you associated with each prophecy, what is the probability that all 8 happened in sequence?
1. Bethlehem was one of the smallest cities in the land of Judah. This means that out of the 1 million or so people that lived in Judah, only around 8,000 lived Bethlehem. So there is a minute probability that Christ would be born in that specific town. There are two steps to finding this probability. The first is to find the probability of anyone being born in Bethlehem, which would be 8000/1,000,000 or approx. .008. Next, the probability of a specific person being born in bethlehem, which is 1/8000, or .000125. To find the probability of Christ being born in Bethlehem, you combine the two probabilities, to get .000001
2. For Isaiah to have prophesied John the baptist would preach the coming of Jesus as the Messiah is a little more difficult to estimate. One could make it simple and say that the probability is merely 1 out of the approx 1,000,000 people in Judah. however, this is technically the probability of anyone coming before Jesus and preaching his coming. John the baptist came from a family in the Jewish priesthood. This was especially significant, and more rare than just anyone coming out of the population. Not only this, according to Matthew, John the baptist’s father was visited by the Angel Gabriel and informed about the coming of his son John, who would make way the pathway for Jesus. This makes the probability that much more intricate. So if the probability of anyone coming forward to preach Jesus before he comes is approx. 1/1,000,000 or .000001, The probability that this person is of a priestly family is approx .00002, and the probability that this person has had a miraculous encounter is about