Nfl Selection Trend Analysis
NBA 6950: Game Theory and Business Strategy | Game Theoretic Analysis of the number one draft pick in the NFL Draft | | | |
Executive Summary
Situation Overview
Every year the NFL holds an annual draft in which eligible athletes are selected by teams in a prearranged order based on the performance of the team in the prior year. The team with the worst record the prior year selects first and the team with the best record the prior year selects last. The draft itself has numerous rounds in which the teams select players to be added to their roster.
Selection
Teams select players based on a combination of factors including team need, best player available and some teams may even factor in the reaction of the fan base into their …show more content…
As such, players in later rounds will often benefit from conversations with NFL teams to ensure that their professional valuation is in line with the analysts view. One NFL hopeful, Shyrone Stith, learned this lesson the hard way. In the 2000 draft, well renowned analyst Mel Kiper of ESPN predicted Stith would be selected at a respectable 46th, which would result in a substantial salary. He left school early, with hopes of NFL glory, only to wait for days until he was picked 243rd and received a position on the bench and the league’s minimum wage. One could speculate that if Stith had stayed in college he would have at least received a college diploma and had an opportunity to improve his draft position. This exemplifies the potential of misevaluating one’s relative skill and market …show more content…
The team possessing the first draft pick will pursue a strategy to reduce their payout to their eventual pick. If they can credibly threaten to select the inferior “Player 2,” than the superior “Player 1” may be induced to negotiate with that team to remain as the first pick granted he receives a higher payout than had he been the second pick. This in turn gives the team the leverage to offer a lower payout than had they not been able to make the above mentioned credible threat. The team’s tool is the threat, while the players’ tool is the ability to choose to negotiate or not to
Executive Summary
Situation Overview
Every year the NFL holds an annual draft in which eligible athletes are selected by teams in a prearranged order based on the performance of the team in the prior year. The team with the worst record the prior year selects first and the team with the best record the prior year selects last. The draft itself has numerous rounds in which the teams select players to be added to their roster.
Selection
Teams select players based on a combination of factors including team need, best player available and some teams may even factor in the reaction of the fan base into their …show more content…
As such, players in later rounds will often benefit from conversations with NFL teams to ensure that their professional valuation is in line with the analysts view. One NFL hopeful, Shyrone Stith, learned this lesson the hard way. In the 2000 draft, well renowned analyst Mel Kiper of ESPN predicted Stith would be selected at a respectable 46th, which would result in a substantial salary. He left school early, with hopes of NFL glory, only to wait for days until he was picked 243rd and received a position on the bench and the league’s minimum wage. One could speculate that if Stith had stayed in college he would have at least received a college diploma and had an opportunity to improve his draft position. This exemplifies the potential of misevaluating one’s relative skill and market …show more content…
The team possessing the first draft pick will pursue a strategy to reduce their payout to their eventual pick. If they can credibly threaten to select the inferior “Player 2,” than the superior “Player 1” may be induced to negotiate with that team to remain as the first pick granted he receives a higher payout than had he been the second pick. This in turn gives the team the leverage to offer a lower payout than had they not been able to make the above mentioned credible threat. The team’s tool is the threat, while the players’ tool is the ability to choose to negotiate or not to