Objective Analysis of Sports
9/20/2011
RBI- has been a pretty important and valuable statistic…however recently the RBI has been becoming more and more discredited.
9/22/2011
How We Know What Isn’t So 1. Misperception of Random Events
- Hot hand fallacy – Most statistical analysis shows that it’s not true. The evidence shows that the hot hand idea is false and that each shot is independent from the past shot.
-Ex: Checked the statistics of the Philadelphia 76ers 1980 season and there was no correlation between making a shot after making the previous shot or missing a shot after missing the previous shot. There was no connection for each shot to the previous shot(s).
- Severini Hot Hand Theory: The way most people use the hot hand theory is by comparing all the players on the floor together. Hot hand theory should be to give the ball to the player who has been most productive. Hot hand theory is “who is the best player THAT day”.
2. Missing Data (RBI?) * Very hard to judge each coach and which coach is better than the other coach. Example- is Bill Belichick a better coach than Rex Ryan? You will never know because they never coached the same team and the same players, under the same circumstances. You cannot make conclusions without having the same circumstances and with this missing data.
3. Expectations * How you view certain events is based on what you expect to occur before the event actually happens. * Example: Fielding in baseball.
4. Seeing what we want to see.
- You interpret things in a way that supports what you would like to be true. Can not rely on subjectivity.
5. Excessive impact of confirmatory information
- When you see something that supports a given point, it is more memorable and sticks in people’s minds more.
-Ex. Roethlesberger holding the ball too long. He has been criticized for this and whenever he does, we quickly jump on that and criticize it. But when he makes a great play because he held the ball
RBI- has been a pretty important and valuable statistic…however recently the RBI has been becoming more and more discredited.
9/22/2011
How We Know What Isn’t So 1. Misperception of Random Events
- Hot hand fallacy – Most statistical analysis shows that it’s not true. The evidence shows that the hot hand idea is false and that each shot is independent from the past shot.
-Ex: Checked the statistics of the Philadelphia 76ers 1980 season and there was no correlation between making a shot after making the previous shot or missing a shot after missing the previous shot. There was no connection for each shot to the previous shot(s).
- Severini Hot Hand Theory: The way most people use the hot hand theory is by comparing all the players on the floor together. Hot hand theory should be to give the ball to the player who has been most productive. Hot hand theory is “who is the best player THAT day”.
2. Missing Data (RBI?) * Very hard to judge each coach and which coach is better than the other coach. Example- is Bill Belichick a better coach than Rex Ryan? You will never know because they never coached the same team and the same players, under the same circumstances. You cannot make conclusions without having the same circumstances and with this missing data.
3. Expectations * How you view certain events is based on what you expect to occur before the event actually happens. * Example: Fielding in baseball.
4. Seeing what we want to see.
- You interpret things in a way that supports what you would like to be true. Can not rely on subjectivity.
5. Excessive impact of confirmatory information
- When you see something that supports a given point, it is more memorable and sticks in people’s minds more.
-Ex. Roethlesberger holding the ball too long. He has been criticized for this and whenever he does, we quickly jump on that and criticize it. But when he makes a great play because he held the ball