Population Pyramid of China from 1500 to 2000

GEOG1017- Human Geography in a Globalising WorldYung Lok Hang, Hody UID: 3035060798
Words count: 3,483
Q1. Identify the growth and spatial distribution of the human population in a country of your choice and explain the causes and consequences of the pattern of population growth you have identified. Use statistical data to illustrate your points.
The population geography of China in 1950-2000s
I.Introduction
Every country has its own population pattern due to different background. The growth, distribution and movement of people in relation to geographic condition can be explained through population geography. For instance, China, transforming from a rural country to a world factory under the economic reform led by Deng Xiaoping, has experienced changes in population growth. Since 1978, Deng created a series of special economic zones for foreign investment that were relatively free of the bureaucratic regulations and interventions that hampered economic growth. These regions became engines of growth for the national economy. [1] Under the great transformation of human activities in China in the era of globalization, a special characteristic is formed in terms of spatial distribution of the human population.
This paper aims at identifying the pattern of Chinese population through maps, bar charts and line graphs, explaining the rationales behind in different aspects and discussing the consequences. And, it will focus on the period of 1950-2000s because China is undergoing a significant transformation at that time. There are 3 main research questions: What are the growth and spatial distribution of the Chinese population in 1950-2000s? How it can be explained in different aspects? What are the consequences?
II. Pattern of human population in China in 1950-2000sTo explain the patterns observed from analysis, some statistics will be used in form of tables, graphs and maps. However, the statistics refer only to mainland China. Chinese in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Taiwan Province and Macao Special Administrative Region will not be included.
A.The population growth
Now, China, the most densely-packed country in the world, has an overall population exceeding 1.3 billion. According to Li Bin, director with the State Population and Family Planning Commission, 22 percent of the world's total population was from China by the end of 1999. [2] This existing population can be divided into two parts, natural growth and population movement.
A1.The natural growth
Figure A1.1, The population and the natural growth rate in China, Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2010). China Compendium of Statistics. Beijing: China Statistics Press. [3]In the figure A1.1, the total population is directly proportioned to the time, forming a linear graph. Since 1950, the total population has shown a steady increasing trend, except the period of early 1960s. It was decreased from 6.7 hundreds million in 1959 to 6.6 hundreds million in 1962. However, generally, the total population had almost doubled in 50 years, which was increased from 5.5 to 13 hundred million. In terms of natural population growth rate, there is an inverse proportion between it and time, but it also fluctuates more with a nodal graph. Despite the decrease trend in the growth rate, the total population will be increase as long as the growth rate is positive. Between the mid-1950s and early 1960s, the growth rate dropped from 23% to -5%, showing the decrease in total population as mentioned earlier.

Figure A1.2, the births and deaths in China, data is selected from National Bureau of Statistics of China: China Statistical yearbook 2011, chapter 3 Population: the Table of births and deaths 1950-2011 (attached)
In demographics, the natural growth rate is the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate of a population. The major reason for population changes, whether in an individual country or for the whole world, is the change in birth and death rates. [4] A low birth rate will be resulted when the total fertility rate is low; A low death rate will be resulted when the infant mortality rate is low and the life expectancy is high.
As we can see in figure A1.2, the crude birth rate varied widely before 1969, dropped sharply in the 1970s, increased from 1980s, and finally kept a constant decreasing trend at the level of around 12 per 1,000 in recent years. Between 1970 and 1980, it dropped from 33.4 per 1,000 to 18.2 per 1,000. Concerning the death rate, there was a significant increase from 11 per 1,000 in mid 1950s to 10 per 1,000 in 1960, followed by steady trend at level of 7 per 1,000 in recent years.

Figure A1.3,the demographic transition of China, Niu Yi Qiao (2005). Barcelona Field Studies Centre. China: Demographic Transition. [5]The Demographic Transition Model can be used to sum up how population changes as China develops. During 1965-1975, the combination of falling birth rate and low death rate has led to high natural increase. Until early 1970s, both birth rate and death rate is low, resulting in low natural increase. This can be seen as the process of China developing with a lower population growth rate. As long as the life expectancy is high, China’s population will start to shrink. According to Niu Yi Qiao, from Barcelona Field Studies Centre, China will also lose its position as the most populous country in the world to India in the future. [6]A2. The population movementApart from the natural growth, the movement of the people can also be seen as a factor affecting the population. In China, people usually migrate for seeking jobs. The United Nations Convention refers migrant worker to a person who is engaged in a remunerated activity in a state where he is or not a national. However, when compared to the internal migration, the international one is not obvious.

Figure A2.1, the net migration in China, Central Intelligence Agency World Factbook. (2012) [8]The figure above illustrates the trend of international migration in terms of net migration, which is the difference of the number of immigrants and emigrants for the five-year period. The highest level was reached in the late 1960s and it dropped sharply till 1974, from about -0.01 million to -1.1 million. From 1990, it represented a decreasing trend in net migration, which means the amount of immigrants is less than emigrants.
B.The spatial distribution
As mentioned in part A, China is a big country with about one fifth of the world population. However, there is unevenness in its geographical distribution. It can be illustrated through two parts, population density map and the population movement.
B1. Population density map

Population density map of the China, 1: 44,000,000, China Tourist Maps[9]
Population density measures the concentration of people in an area. In the map, the darker colour shows a more densely populated area. Broadly speaking, the population dominance of the east coastal region is obviously shown. Most of them such as Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Shandong, have a population density exceed 500 person/ sq.km. The middle region including Henan, Hunan, Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi and Hubei is less concentrated than the east. In west region, the density will not exceed 200 person/ sq.km, especially Qinghai, Xinjiang, Sichuan and Guizhou. It shows a obvious trend that the population density is decreasing from the east region to the west.B2. The population movementThe unbalanced population is greatly affected by the internal migration. Under the economic reform in China, the rural-urban migration is the main spatial pattern of internal migration, where poor workers move to prosperous cities and manufacturing centers.
Figure B2.1, Major migrant working exporting provinces, National Statistics of Bureau; State Council (2006). Research Report on Chinese Migrant Worker. Shiyen Chubanshe. [10]Figure B2.2, Major migrant working importing provinces, National Statistics of Bureau; State Council (2006). Research Report on Chinese Migrant Worker. Shiyen Chubanshe. [11]From above graphs, we can see workers usually migrate from the rural regions such as Jiangxi, Sichuan, Hubei and Hunan to the urban cities. Nearly a half of the migrant workers have gone to Guangdong, whereas the rest has also gone to Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang.
Figure B2.3, China’s urban and rural population projection in millions, United Nations.
In the figure, the urban and rural population of China was increased in a similar rate till late 1970s. By 1980, there is a duel shift between two population, in which the rural population dropped from 800 million and the urban population increased from 200 million. Following this trend, they meet at the level of about 650 million in 2010. By the end of 2010, 242 million rural workers, which is one-third of the rural workforce, have migrated to the urban cities. [12] It is predicted that the China’s urban population will exceed 700 million in 2015, surpassing the rural population. [13] According to McKinsey, by 2025, two-thirds of China’s population will live in cities, with the amount of 926 million.[14]III. The causes
Concerning the natural population growth, we observed that there was a fluctuation that it dropped greatly from 1957 to 1960, but then it increased till 1963. Starting from the 1960, the natural growth rate decreased, due to the dropping birth rate. In terms of the spatial distribution, the eastern and middle region is much densely populated than the west. It is mainly due to the rural-urban balance shift starting from 1980s. The causality that demography shares with other social sciences, where the causal factors extend beyond the purely demographic to include. [15] The phenomenon can be attributed to many causal factors, including geographical, economic, cultural-historical and governmental-political influences.
A. Geographic factor
The geographical characteristic factors explain the spatial distribution of population, especially the rural areas in China. The climate in China is complicated that it varies from region to region. It can be illustrated through climate and elevation.
A1. Climate

Figure A1.1, Mean annual precipitation (1961-90), Spatial Climate Analysis Service. (2001). Oregon State University. [16]As clearly shown in the figure, the annual precipitation decreases from the southeast to north-west region. In the coastal regions, the annual precipitation is exceeding 1000mm. At the same time, it is below 600mm among the cities in middle and western region.

Figure A1.2, Annual average temperature, 1: 20,000,000, Spatial Climate Analysis Service. (2001). Oregon State University.
Same as the precipitation, the temperature decreases to the north-west region. Most coastal cities including Guangzhou, Shanghai and Fujian, have an average temperature above 18C. However, the temperature in Western China is below 10C.
With such a disparity in climate of different regions in China, the special pattern of population is formed. The precipitation and the temperature are directly proportional to the population density because they are important in agriculture.
A2. Elevation
Figure A2.1, Elevation model, 1: 20,000,000, U.S. Geological Survey, EROS Data Center: GTOPO30 Digital Elevation Model[17]In terms of land topography, there is an uneven pattern of broad plains, mountain and extensive deserts. The lower elevations are found in the east, at the level below 100m. It increases to the western region, where is mountainous, including the Tian Mountains with a height of 4000m. Elevation is an important variable of human population distribution because most human settlements occur on lower elevation in China. For instance, area of plains with an elevation lower than 500m accounts for about 28% of total land area of China, where 74% of total population in China inhabit. [18]
B. Economic factor
The internal migration between rural and urban areas is mainly attributed to the economic factor, affecting the spatial distribution of population. In 1978, China has transformed from a centrally planned economy to a more market-oriented economy but is still with a rigid party control. The economic reforms put emphasis on the privatization of farmlands, development of small-scale enterprises, and the foreign investment. Concerning the foreign trade, the government has marked 5 Special Economic Zones, which are Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shantou, Xiamen and Hainan Province, to attract foreign capital by relaxing the investment laws. By 1990s, the SEZs have been extended to other cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing. As a result, there is a large disparity in economic development between the eastern and western regions in China, which fosters the internal migration.
According to the Everett Lee’s push and pull model, ‘In every area there are countless factors which act to hold people within the area or attract people to it, and there are others which tend to repel them.’ [19] In China, people immigrate from the west to the east. Concerning the push factors, the natural environment in the west is not suitable for development, lacking the location-specific advantage. Its economy is mainly supported by agriculture. However, under the economic reforms, many farm workers from Sichuan, Anhui and Henan made obsolete by modern farming practices, resulting in the labor surpluses. On the other hand, there are some pull factors attracting the cheap labor. The eastern regions have been developed and opened to the world, leading to the industrialization and urbanization. Most migrant workers have gone to Beijing, Shanghai and the coastal cities where new opportunities are opening up. The Chinese government also encourage migration so as to transform China to an urban-based country.
C. Cultural-historical factor
Though the natural growth of population keeps decreasing, but the total population of China is still high due to the large population base. This phenomenon is mostly related to the culture and history in early stage of China.
From the time of the Han dynasty, China had towns of half million inhabitants. Over the last three millennia, many previously distinct ethnic groups in China have emerged into a Han identity, which over time dramatically expanded the size of the Han population.
Concerning the cultural aspect, people’s minds are dominated by the traditional values favoring large families, due to the lack of family planning and education. More children can be seen as the guarantee for security in the old age. Also, in the rural areas, they tend to bear many children that are needed as labour on farms. Therefore, the birth rate was high and contributed to the rapid natural growth of the population. Since 1958, the traditional values were becoming eroded because of the government’s policy.
D. The governmental-political factorApart from the historical and cultural factors, the Chinese government has implemented some policies, which influenced the population growth.
The natural growth of population dropped sharply in 1958-1960, even dropped to negative rate. It can be illustrated by the decrease in birth rate and the increase in death rate. At that time, Mao implemented the ‘Great Leap Forward’ policy with a slogan ‘overtake the British, race the Americans’. It forced millions of peasants to work in factories, resulting in the low agricultural production and even the famine. The death rate was higher than the birth rate, leading to natural decrease in 5 years.Then, the government started to hold the birth control campaign- the wǎn xī shǎo (later marriages, longer intervals between births, and fewer children). The natural growth decreased in the 1970s under the one-child policy. According to White, ‘Having an unauthorized child could mean losing one’s job, apartment, food ration tickets, and urban residency permit.’ [20] Living without a household register, the unauthorized child will lose all the social welfare. As White describe, there is a tight surveillance so that women cannot escape detection of an authorized pregnancy. [21]
Since the 1980s, government has launched the ‘two-child policy’ which aims to provide cheap labors, resulting in an increase of the natural growth rate.
IV. The consequenceFollowing this population and migration pattern, China has been one of the fast growing economy due to the cheap labors. Does it only bring some advantages? Much more consequences are observed, including the population problem, east-west disparity, and institutional discrimination. A. The population problemPopulation problem can be divided into overpopulation and imbalance in the population structure.The distribution of age and sex are included in the population structure.
A1. OverpopulationThough the natural growth rate of China keeps decreasing in recent years, there is still overpopulation due to the large population base. It can be seen as a geographic difference with other countries. In the era of globalization, some multinational corporations choose to be located at China, which are attracted by the large amount of cheap labor. Overpopulation can be seen as a way to increase the competitiveness of local labor and attract the foreign investment.On the other hand, there are also human impacts on the natural environment. The rising population may lead to a shortage in resources, such as the housing, education and health care system. In the long run, it may become one of the social problem that will threaten the stability of government. Also, there are some ecological and environmental impacts because they have overused the natural resources, including the coal.A2. Population structure

FigureA2.1, A2.2, United Nations Population Division. (2005). World Population Prospects. 2004 Revision. [22]
Two population Pyramids above has shown the number of males and females within different age groups in the population. In the 1980s, there was an obvious proportion of youth and only few elderly whose age over 60. The distribution of sex was balanced. However, under the one-child policy introduced in 1978, we can see the proportion of elderly increasing significantly. Also, the sex distribution was less balanced- the ratio of male was a bit higher, especially in the youth proportion. It illustrated two phenomenon, aging problem and gender imbalance.
First, China has an increasingly aging population mainly due to the lower death rate and higher life expectancy. With a larger amount of old people but less youth, the economic growth will be slowed down because of the insufficient labor. It may lead to higher wages and decrease in the foreign investment. Worse still, under the one-child policy, most of the families have only one child. The dependency ratio is increasing. Thus, government and families would have the responsibility to economically support them, resulting in the increased taxes.
Secondly, the gender imbalance is getting serious. The one-child policy poses a threat to family traditions of carrying on the family line. As White describes, ‘One daughter , or even two or three, could not substitute for a son.’ [23]It is because she would marry out and have a new family. Apart from the influence on tradition values, young girls are always abandoned so as to have one more chance to have a boy. According to Bhattacharya, the incidence of selective abortion of female fetuses is growing. [24] It may leads to the lower status of female in China.
B. East-west disparity It is illustrated that there are 3 spatial features influencing the economic development of a region: the density, the distance and division. [25] The access to people and markets is important for development and therefore improve the poverty problem. In China, the rural area remains poor because it cannot enjoy the economic growth under the reforms. As a result, a big wealth disparity exists between the east and the west, in which the income level in the west is about 30% of that of east. A large proportion of people living below the poverty line will burden the Chinese government with increased tax and welfare, which will harm the economic development. For instance, China has become the second-largest economy in the world after the US, but it gives an average GDP per person of only US$ 8,000, about one-fifth that of the US with 130 million. The inequality is getting serious in China.
C. Institutional discrimination

Figure C.1, Number of the migrant workers and hukou-migrants in Guangzhou, 1990-2010 (unit: 10,000), Guangzhou Statistic Yearbook, 1970-2010. In 1958, the household registration system was set up to distribute government welfare and resource, control the migration and survey criminal. Residents are issued the ‘hukou’, which allows them to enjoy the social welfare, such as housing, education and health care. Once they left their place of registration, they would also lose their rights. Figure C.1 illustrated the fact that the number of migrant workers in Guangzhou is increasing, which they do not have the ‘hukou’. Migrant workers face the institutional discrimination, including the wages, living conditions and social isolation. In terms of the working condition, a survey of social security bureaus in 40 cities in 2004 found that only 12.5 percent of migrant workers had signed a labour contract, only 12.9 percent had work-related injury insurance. Moreover, they are provided with an overcrowded accommodation with no toilets. More importantly, they may feel isolated and marginalized. According to a survey by Zhejiang University and London University,] more than half of workers felt their life was meaningless and 17 percent had thought about suicide.
V.Conclusion
From 1950-2000s, it is observed that the population growth in China is slowing down. Also, there are some migrate workers moving from the west to the east. This pattern of population can be explained in geographical, historical-cultural, governmental and the economic aspects. However, it brings some consequences, such as population problem, east-west disparity, and the institutional discrimination. Why do we have to analyze the pattern, causes and consequences in a country? It is because understanding human geography we can explain the economic decisions, national policies, and urban planning. For instance, the internal migration from rural area to coastal region will form a disparity between eastern and western region. Then, now we understand why Chinese government has to boost the economic development in the western region.
VI.Reference[1]Brandt, Loren et al. (2008), "China's Great Transformation", China's Great Transformation, Cambridge: Cambridge university press[2]Chinese account for 19 percent of world population, Xinhua, July 11, 2011http://www.china.org.cn/china/2011-07/11/content_22967992.htm[3]Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2010). China Compendium of Statistics. Beijing: China Statistics Press. [4] www.internetgeography.net[5]Niu Yi Qiao (2005). Barcelona Field Studies Centre. China: Demographic Transition. [6] Niu Yi Qiao (2005). Barcelona Field Studies Centre. China: Demographic Transition.http://geographyfieldwork.com/ChinaDemographicTransition.htm[7]United Nations Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families. United Nations. Retrieved November 30, 2006.
[8] Central Intelligence Agency World Factbook. (2012) http://www.indexmundi.com/china/net_migration_rate.html[9] http://www.chinatouristmaps.com
[10] National Statistics of Bureau. [11] State Council (2006). Research Report on Chinese Migrant Worker. Shiyen Chubanshe.
[12]State Council (2006). Research report on Chinese migrant workers. Shiyan Chubanshe,P.3.[13] China’s National Population and Family Planning Commission. July 2010. [14] McKinsey & Co. (2009). Preparing for China's urban billion
[15]Bhrolchain M. and Dyson, T. (2007). On causation in demography: issues and illustrations. Population and Development Review, 33(1), 1-37.
[16] Spatial Climate Analysis Service. (2001). Oregon State University.[17] U.S. Geological Survey, EROS Data Center: GTOPO30 Digital Elevation Model[18] Zhang, S.Y., 1997. Population Geography of China. Business Press House, Beijing.[19] Lee, E. S. (1966). A Theory of Migration. Retrieved March the 7, 2010, from Jstore Database, Published by: Population Association of America
[20]White, T. (2006). China’s Longest Campaign: Birth Planning in the People’s Republic, 1949-2005. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press.
[21]White, T. (2006). China’s Longest Campaign: Birth Planning in the People’s Republic, 1949-2005. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press.
[22]United Nations Population Division. (2005). World Population Prospects. 2004 Revision.[23]White, T. (2006). China’s Longest Campaign: Birth Planning in the People’s Republic, 1949-2005. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press.
[24]Bhattacharya, C. P. (2006). Economic development, gender inequality, and demographic outcomes: evidence from India. Population and Development Review, 32(2), 263-293.
[25]Linard, C., Gilbert, M., Snow, R. W., Noor, A. M., & Tatem, A. J. (2012). Population Distribution, Settlement Patterns and Accessibility across Africa in 2010. [26]Guangzhou Statistic Yearbook, 1970-2010.[27]Young, Joe (2002). “Hukou reform targets rural-urban divide”, The China Business Review, 32; quoted in the Congressional-Executive Commission on China Topic Paper: China’s Household Registration System HYPERLINK "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_reform" \l "cite_note-Loren_11-12" [28]State Council (2006). 中国农民工调研报告 (Research report on Chinese migrant workers). Shiyan Chubanshe. HYPERLINK "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_reform" \l "cite_note-Loren_11-12" [29] “外来工健康状况调查：为生计透支未来” (A survey on the health of migrant workers: mortgaging their future health). op. cit.