Technological Change and Opportunities for Development as a Moving Target
CEPAL
R C E P E W R E V •I E W C E M B E R
EVIAL 75
DE 75
109
2001
Technological change and opportunities for development as a moving target
Carlota Pérez
Honorary Research Fellow,
SPRU, the University of Sussex.
Adjunct Senior Research Fellow,
INTECH, United Nations
University
The Netherlands carperez@reacciun.ve This article puts forward an interpretation of development as a process of accumulation of technological and social capabilities dependent upon taking advantage of successive and different windows of opportunity. These windows are determined from the core countries, through the technological revolutions which occur every half-century and the four phases of their deployment. The possibilities of progressing at each opportunity depend on the achievements made in the previous phase, on identifying the nature of the next one, understanding the technoeconomic paradigm of the revolution in question, and being able to design and negotiate, in each case, a positive-sum strategy, taking account of the interests of the most powerful firms. On the basis of this interpretation, a summary review is made of the successive development strategies applied since the 1950s. The author then outlines the likely nature of the next phase and, applying the principles of the current techno-economic paradigm, explores some aspects of the institutional changes to be carried out.
T E C H N O L O G I C A L C H A N G E A N D O P P O R T U N I T I E S E C E MD E V E 2 0 0 1M E N T A S A M OV I N G TA R G E T
D FOR BER LOP
•
C A R L OTA P É R E Z
110
CEPAL
REVIEW
75
•
DECEMBER
2001
I
Technological change and development
Technology is usually seen as a specialized field of development policy, with separate institutions. In this study, however, we maintain that, rather than being merely an element of development strategies, technology is a condition for their viability. The opportunities for development
R C E P E W R E V •I E W C E M B E R
EVIAL 75
DE 75
109
2001
Technological change and opportunities for development as a moving target
Carlota Pérez
Honorary Research Fellow,
SPRU, the University of Sussex.
Adjunct Senior Research Fellow,
INTECH, United Nations
University
The Netherlands carperez@reacciun.ve This article puts forward an interpretation of development as a process of accumulation of technological and social capabilities dependent upon taking advantage of successive and different windows of opportunity. These windows are determined from the core countries, through the technological revolutions which occur every half-century and the four phases of their deployment. The possibilities of progressing at each opportunity depend on the achievements made in the previous phase, on identifying the nature of the next one, understanding the technoeconomic paradigm of the revolution in question, and being able to design and negotiate, in each case, a positive-sum strategy, taking account of the interests of the most powerful firms. On the basis of this interpretation, a summary review is made of the successive development strategies applied since the 1950s. The author then outlines the likely nature of the next phase and, applying the principles of the current techno-economic paradigm, explores some aspects of the institutional changes to be carried out.
T E C H N O L O G I C A L C H A N G E A N D O P P O R T U N I T I E S E C E MD E V E 2 0 0 1M E N T A S A M OV I N G TA R G E T
D FOR BER LOP
•
C A R L OTA P É R E Z
110
CEPAL
REVIEW
75
•
DECEMBER
2001
I
Technological change and development
Technology is usually seen as a specialized field of development policy, with separate institutions. In this study, however, we maintain that, rather than being merely an element of development strategies, technology is a condition for their viability. The opportunities for development
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