THE FUTURE OF EXTREMISM IN PAKISTAN
The Future of Extremism in Pakistan
A Twenty Year Forward Look to 2028
Jan Consulting is a Private Limited Company registered in England and Wales www.jan-consulting.com Jan Consulting
VIOLENT EXTREMISM IN PAKISTAN
“Extremism” is politically loaded term that can mean different things to different people
Refers to ideas/mindsets that are assumed to be rejected by vast majority of people in a particular society
Connotes illegitimacy of those views
Can be associated with violent actions to further “extremist” goals
Many forms of violent extremism have existed in Pakistan
Violence against society by an authoritarian state
Violence against state by ethnic groups
Violence against state and society by religious sectarian groups
Jan Consulting
RELIGIOUS-BASED EXTREMISM IN PAKISTAN
Islamic extremism and militancy currently poses, in terms of scale and scope, the most significant threat to Pakistan’s unity
Revolutionary agenda
Aimed towards antithesis of progressive, modern, and developmental state
Wide range in size, sectarian agenda, and scope of activities of these groups
Harkat ul Mujahideen and Harkat ul Ansar: Afghan focused, NWFP based, madrassa educated
Lashkar e Tayaba, Jaish e Muhammad, Hizb ul Mujahideen: Kashmir focused, Punjab based, public school educated
Jan Consulting
GROWTH OF ISLAMIC EXTREMIST GROUPS IN PAKISTAN
Number of Extremist Groups by Province
60
Punjab
Sindh
NWFP
Other
40
20
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2002
Additional 35 extremist groups whose date of origin is unknown
– 26 are Punjab based
– Remainder are Sindh and NWFP based
Estimated that over 100 such groups remain today despite government actions against them
Source: Amir Rana, A to Z to Jihadi Organizations, 2002
Jan Consulting
DRIVERS OF ISLAMIC EXTREMISM IN PAKISTAN
Regional context and state policy
High
FATA as wilfully ungoverned space
Madrassa
environment
Social immobility
Lack of
A Twenty Year Forward Look to 2028
Jan Consulting is a Private Limited Company registered in England and Wales www.jan-consulting.com Jan Consulting
VIOLENT EXTREMISM IN PAKISTAN
“Extremism” is politically loaded term that can mean different things to different people
Refers to ideas/mindsets that are assumed to be rejected by vast majority of people in a particular society
Connotes illegitimacy of those views
Can be associated with violent actions to further “extremist” goals
Many forms of violent extremism have existed in Pakistan
Violence against society by an authoritarian state
Violence against state by ethnic groups
Violence against state and society by religious sectarian groups
Jan Consulting
RELIGIOUS-BASED EXTREMISM IN PAKISTAN
Islamic extremism and militancy currently poses, in terms of scale and scope, the most significant threat to Pakistan’s unity
Revolutionary agenda
Aimed towards antithesis of progressive, modern, and developmental state
Wide range in size, sectarian agenda, and scope of activities of these groups
Harkat ul Mujahideen and Harkat ul Ansar: Afghan focused, NWFP based, madrassa educated
Lashkar e Tayaba, Jaish e Muhammad, Hizb ul Mujahideen: Kashmir focused, Punjab based, public school educated
Jan Consulting
GROWTH OF ISLAMIC EXTREMIST GROUPS IN PAKISTAN
Number of Extremist Groups by Province
60
Punjab
Sindh
NWFP
Other
40
20
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2002
Additional 35 extremist groups whose date of origin is unknown
– 26 are Punjab based
– Remainder are Sindh and NWFP based
Estimated that over 100 such groups remain today despite government actions against them
Source: Amir Rana, A to Z to Jihadi Organizations, 2002
Jan Consulting
DRIVERS OF ISLAMIC EXTREMISM IN PAKISTAN
Regional context and state policy
High
FATA as wilfully ungoverned space
Madrassa
environment
Social immobility
Lack of