Survival distributions Age-at-death random variable T0 – age-at-death (lifetime for newborn) random variable To completely determine the distribution of T0 ‚ we may use (for t ≥ 0)‚ (1) (cumulative) distribution function: F0 (t) = Pr(T0 ≤ t) (2) survival function: s0 (t) = 1 − F0 (t) = Pr(T0 > t) (3) probability density function: f0 (t) = F0 (t) = (4) force of mortality: µ0 (t) = d F0 (t) dt f0 (t) −s0 (t) = 1 − F0 (t) s0 (t) Requirements: (1) For distribution function‚ F(x)
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Normal Distribution It is important because of Central Limit Theorem (CTL)‚ the CTL said that Sum up a lot of i.i.d random variables the shape of the distribution will looks like Normal. Normal P.D.F Now we want to find c This integral has been proved that it cannot have close form solution. However‚ someone gives an idea that looks stupid but actually very brilliant by multiply two of them. reminds the function of circle which we can replace them to polar coordinate Thus Mean
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Probability distribution Definition with example: The total set of all the probabilities of a random variable to attain all the possible values. Let me give an example. We toss a coin 3 times and try to find what the probability of obtaining head is? Here the event of getting head is known as the random variable. Now what are the possible values of the random variable‚ i.e. what is the possible number of times that head might occur? It is 0 (head never occurs)‚ 1 (head occurs once out of 2 tosses)
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The Normal and Lognormal Distributions John Norstad j-norstad@northwestern.edu http://www.norstad.org February 2‚ 1999 Updated: November 3‚ 2011 Abstract The basic properties of the normal and lognormal distributions‚ with full proofs. We assume familiarity with elementary probability theory and with college-level calculus. 1 1 DEFINITIONS AND SUMMARY OF THE PROPOSITIONS 1 Definitions and Summary of the Propositions ∞ √ Proposition 1: −∞ 2 2 1 e−(x−µ) /2σ
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Star Concert North Star.xls Best Guess‚ Worst Case‚ Best Case; and Continuous Uncertainties 3 Engine Services‚ Inc. Quick Start Guide to Crystal Ball Analyzing Uncertainty‚ Probability Distributions‚ and Simulation Learning Module: Crystal Ball Litigate Demo Engine Services.xls Language of Probability Distributions and Monte Carlo Simulation 4 Taurus Telecommunications Corporation: A New Prepaid Phone Card Learning Module: Tornado Sensitivity Taurus Telecommunications.xls Sensitivity Analysis and
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ASSIGNMENT ON FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION & GRAPHIC PRESENTATION ( EX. # 32 & 30 ) SUBMITTED TO: FARZANA LALARUKH DEPT. OF FINANCE UNIVERSITY OF DHAKA SUBMITTED BY: SHEAKH MOHAMMAD KHALED MAHTAB ID# 11046 DEPT. OF FINANCE EMBA UNIVERSITY OF DHAKA Date of submission: February 27‚ 2007 Exercise # 32 The Midland National Bank selected a sample of 40 student checking accounts. Below are their end-of-the-month balances: 404 87 703 968 74 234 125 712 234 68 350 503 149 489 440 489
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Unit 6. Normal Distribution Solution to problems Statistics I. International Group Departamento de Economa Aplicada Universitat de Valncia May 20‚ 2010 Problem 35 Random variable X : weekly ticket sales (units) of a museum. X ∼ N(1000‚ 180) Find the probability of weekly sales exceeding 850 tickets. Find the probability of the interval 1000 to 1200 Take 5 weeks at random. Find the probability of weekly sales not exceeding 850 tickets in more than two weeks Ticket price is 4.5 Euros
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The RiskMetrics Group Working Paper Number 99-07 On Default Correlation: A Copula Function Approach David X. Li This draft: April 2000 First draft: September 1999 44 Wall St. New York‚ NY 10005 david.li@riskmetrics.com www.riskmetrics.com On Default Correlation: A Copula Function Approach David X. Li April 2000 Abstract This paper studies the problem of default correlation. We first introduce a random variable called “timeuntil-default” to denote the survival time of each
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Mathematical Modelling 2 Week 3: Discrete Random Variables Stephen Bush Department of Mathematical Sciences MM2: Statistics - Week 3 - 1 Random Variables • Reference: Devore § 3.1 – 3.5 • Definitions: • An experiment is any process of obtaining one outcome where the outcome is uncertain. • A random variable is a numerical variable whose value can change from one replicate of the experiment to another. • Sample means and sample standard deviations are random variables • They
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Monte Carlo Simulation Using RiskSim 10 10.1 RISKSIM OVERVIEW RiskSim is a Monte Carlo Simulation add-in for Microsoft Excel 2000–2010 (Windows) and Microsoft Excel 2004 (Macintosh). RiskSim provides random number generator functions as inputs for your model‚ automates Monte Carlo simulation‚ and creates charts. Your spreadsheet model may include various uncontrollable uncertainties as input assumptions (e.g.‚ demand for a new product‚ uncertain variable cost of production‚ competitor reaction)
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