Few national elections have faced as many security challenges as the recent election that took place last Saturday in Pakistan. The pre-election campaign season had seen its share of high-profile assassinations as well as terrorist attacks on public gatherings and even state-run installations. Adding to the public anxiety is the fact that this election presented a novelty to the Pakistani state: it was the first election to follow a completed term by a democratically-elected government. This is an achievement that, despite the recent violence and its unique history of instability, should not be overlooked. That said, there exists on the political horizon at least two wild cards that will determine both the future of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government as well as the resiliency of Pakistan's democracy going forward.
The first of these political wildcards is the military/civilian relationship in Pakistan. As stated earlier, this past election marks the first democratic handoff from one elected government to another in the 66-year history of the state. Every previously elected government has succumbed to military-led coups at one point or another. While the reasons and circumstances varied from one coup to another, the common thread between each coup was a combination of a perceived level of incompetence from the civilian leadership, an overriding concern that this incompetence would invite Indian military aggression and jeopardize the state itself, and political opportunism on the part of Pakistan's military leadership. Given the historical context of last week's parliamentary elections, it would appear that the relationship between the Pakistani military and its civilian counterparts has undergone a fundamental change — one that bodes well for Pakistan's democracy going forward.
However, there remains a number of issues that could put this relationship sorely to