Process of political change in Mongolia during transitional period (1990-2000)

Namsrai Bayar, CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY,

Course: Political behavior- public opinion- empirical democratic process

Prof.R.Markowski

Fall semester 2000/2001

Course work

Process of political change in Mongolia during transitional period (1990-2000)

The establishment of formal institutes of democracy and political freedom were swift and bloodless, following the start of democratic protest and reform in 1990. The ruling Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP) showed enough foresight and pragmatism avoid any bloodshed, instituted constitutional amendments to allow multi-party elections, and then adopted a new democratic constitution in January of 1992. Mongolia has held 4 parliamentary and 3 presidential elections since 1990, which were accepted as free, democratic and fair. The first competitive parliamentary elections, held in 1990, were contested by 6 political parties. Today there are over 20 political parties functioning in Mongolia.
In the report I would like to show process of political changes in Mongolia within the context of economic reforms during last decade.

Coalition government and economic shock therapy, 1990-1992

Changes in Soviet policy in the middle of 1980s generated by glasnost and perestroika had impact on changes in policy orientations of Mongolia. Soviet Union began to withdraw some troops stationed in Mongolia under agreement on mutual military assistance. Economic and technical assistance of Soviet Union, amounted more than 30 percents of Mongolia’s gross domestic product, had diminished substantively. In new situation, Mongolia had no choice but change economic orientations. In1987, Mongolia initiated diplomatic relations with the USA and negotiated protocols for trade and scientific cooperation with China.
Simultaneously, public unrest with existing state establishment has grown, demonstrations and meetings of mass protest, requiring abolition of one-party system and planned economy in a favor of multi-party system and market economy, resulted resignation of communist hard-liners’ leadership of Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party /MPRP/ and call for free multi-party elections.

New leadership of MPRP proclaimed itself as a follower of Mongolian national idea and supporter of reform, democracy and human rights. Its tactics brought success to MPRP in first competitive multi-party parliamentary elections in July of 1990. MPRP received about 60% of the popular vote. The opposition democratic wing parties received combined 35% of votes, and it would be considered as a success of democratic forces. The way, which new elected parliament was formed, reflected transitional stage of process of democratic reforms. The elections were accomplished under old, communist constitution: parliament (People’s Great Hural) was not functioning on permanent basis, having session twice a year for a short period. Between sessions, functions of parliament were substituted by Presidium, members of which were appointed by leadership of communist party. In fact, the parliament played minor role comparing with the dominant communist party. New, multi-party system required substantial corrections to such state of things. Therefore, the role of permanent functioning parliament was provisionally fulfilled by “Small Chamber”(Baga Hural)- an institutional body, elected from members of parliament on the proportional basis.

New government enthusiastically pursued reform; it tolerated other opposition parties and appointed opposition experts, especially economists, on top executive positions in administration. The government launched a program of wide-scale privatization. But privatization did not proceed as anticipated. The implementation of privatization plan was poor managed, ineffective and corrupt. Moreover, reformers, recruited from opposition parties, engaged in financial speculation that resulted in the huge loss of more than 80% of the country’s foreign currency reserves.
Soviet withdrawal of economic and technical aid undermined all government’s effort to get out of crisis. Severe fuel shortages have impact on decline of production, unemployment rose rapidly. Consumer goods were in short supply, and resulting inflation hit heavily a national currency. Economic disorder led to rationing of basic food items in the cities.
People blamed the privatization and the market economy in deterioration of economic condition of the country. The conservative wing of MPRP fostered this mood attacking economic shock therapy policy conducting by government. The initial euphoria in country’s renaissance fades as an economic conditions worsened.

Retained monopoly of MPRP, attempted stability, 1992-1996

The economic crisis and disillusion in future of the reform overthrew reformer government during the first really democratic parliamentary elections under new constitution. Representing critics of the reform process, the MPRP won 71 places from 76 in the parliament, though received 60% of popular vote. Opposition parties are dropped by 10 percent, receiving 25% of votes in aggregate. Reformer wing of MPRP, leading by former prime minister, left the party and formed new political party-Renaissance Party, and ran for parliament. But the party did not receive any seat in new parliament.
Elections accomplished according new electoral formula: some kind of mixture of proportional and majoritarian systems. Candidates were elected from 26 multimember constituencies by simple majority principle. Voter should choose 2-4 names from the list of candidates, depending on number of seats been allotted to particular constituency. Top candidates, received the majority of votes in the constituency, were declared as winners.

Succeeding government emphasized economic stability, its main economic goal was to compensate for the losses resulted from withdrawal of Soviet aid. It limited economic shock therapy policy of the previous government and slow down pace of transition to market economy and privatization. Such policy had positive effect for stabilizing economy. Favorable economic conditions, such as rising prices for copper and cashmere-main import items, contributed for improving economic situation in the country. Inflation was reduced from 320% in 1992 to 70% in 1994; the GDP rebounded from losses to modest gains in1994, rationing of food was abandoned, consumer goods were more available; privatization of small-size enterprises continued; size of live-stock increased from 25 million in 1991 to 27 million in 1994.

Despite achieved successes the government could not manage effectively with several important issues, which undermined all its efforts to stabilize situation. Growing private enterprises in agriculture, trade and service, substantial sector of informal economy were reluctant to pay taxes and find ways to escape it. That situation causes serious burdens in state budget, the financial means for educational, medical, and social services were in short supply. Social network for social vulnerable groups of populations: poor, single mothers, elderly- begun to disintegrate. Moreover wages do not keep pace with inflation, and unemployment continued to rise. Corruption and a banking scandal, connected with unsecured loans, damaged image of the incumbent government.
By 1996-the election year, the government faced a grave crisis. Corruption, inefficiency, mismanagement, erosion of social services, deterioration of living standards of the populations-all together led to dissatisfaction with performance of the incumbent government. Public opinion polls showed fall of confidence in ruling party and incumbent government. According research of polling organization “Sant Maral”, only about 30-35% of respondents believed that the ruling MPRP is the most competent political party to cope with economic issues of the country.

The ouster of the MPRP and continuation of shock therapy reforms, 1996-2000

Learning from the humiliate defeat in previous elections the democratic opposition began to concentrate its forces, which resulted in the creation of the Democratic Union Coalition (DUC) in spring of 1996. The DUC gathered together four political parties, including two major political parties: Mongolian National Democratic Party and Mongolian Social Democratic Party. The formation of the DUC fostered a trend for opposition support; opinion polls in the capital indicated a rating of DUC of 51%, in comparison with 32% for the MPRP.
The Democratic Union achieved overwhelming victory in parliamentary elections in July of 1996, getting 50 seats, while MPRP representation decreased from 71 to 25 seats. The transition of power from MPRP to Democratic Union proved to be peaceful and important step to democracy.

A new electoral formula was adopted just 6 months before elections. Multi-member constituencies were eliminated and reorganized in 76 single-member constituencies. Candidate, received simple majority votes, becomes a winner. Only one limitation was that the minimal percent of votes for winner should be more than 25% of all eligible voters in the constituency.

The Democratic Union applied principally new campaign strategy, based on experience of US electoral campaigns. The success of the DUC can be attributed to activities of foreign nongovernmental organizations, such as Konrad Adenauer Foundation and International Republican Institute, which provided assistance in campaign strategy. According advice of International Republican Institute, the DUC offered a “Contract with voters”- promises signed by candidates of the DUC running for office. Such approach was new for Mongolian voters and pleased them.

The new government has chosen radical methods to fulfill a goal of moving toward market through shock therapy. It removed controls on energy prices, leading to a 50% rise in the cost of fuel and electricity. It closed two of the several poor managed banks, which were among the largest in the country but which were associated with the MPRP opposition. It adjusts the levels of pensions, reducing them in many cases. The new government pursued its economy shock therapy policy despite unfavorable economic conditions. Prices for cashmere and copper, two most important exports of the country, declined; unemployment continued to rise, and about 36% of the population lived below the poverty line. Loss of local elections just three month after victory in parliamentary elections, following by victory of MPRP leader N.Bagabandi in presidential elections of 1997 reflected public uneasiness with effects of the Democratic Union policies. The public pessimism and disappointment with DUC increased with consecutive falls of three DUC cabinets. Public confidence in parliament, government, and judicial system started to fall down, while confidence in president was growing. Several political scandals, including imprisonment of three DUC members of parliament that were found guilty of corruption, brought DUC rating lower. In December 1999, only 17% of the population was ready to vote for the DUC, against 49% for the MPRP.

Comeback of ex-communists, attempt to restore order and discipline. 2000-

The MPRP had overcome its shock after the 1996 elections and started their comeback to the power. Poor performance of the DUC government, internal frictions in the incumbent coalition, political scandals connected with DUC parliamentary deputies rendered a good favors for improving public image of MPRP. The ex-communists began presenting themselves as a renewed progressive political force, the only with the potential to lead the country. New leadership of MPRP played pivotal role in this process. Soon after defeat, the MPRP, accepting mistakes from the past, began a massive recruiting of young members. Realizing importance of the mass media, MPRP began more open to them.

Internal conflicts, the coalition deeply pored at, finally led to its disintegration just few months before next elections. Social democrats officially acknowledged that they would not participate in the elections with the rest of the DUC. This fact forced the leaders of the DUC to recognize their low level of popularity and poor prospects for winning in forthcoming elections. Possibilities for uniting with other political forces were already wasted and democratic coalition opted for a novelty in Mongolia: in spite of the previous elections of 1992 and 1996, when people essentially voted for political parties, the democrats choose for cult of personality in the electoral campaign of 2000. That approach helped the parties to collect campaign funds but created side effects: about 600 candidates (more than twice comparing with previous elections), independent and from about 20 parties, participated in elections.
Nevertheless the MPRP won 72 out of 76 seats in parliament. Strong personality factor played insignificant role in the elections: among elected non-MPRP parliamentary deputies were former prime minister, 1 opposition party leader, and 2 company owners. The results of the elections eliminated MSDP, the third biggest party, from parliament and downgraded non-MPRP deputies to insignificant roles in legislature.

First steps of MPRP government aimed to restore order and discipline in state apparatus. It tightened regulations of selling alcohol. Public welcomed that measures of new government. But some controversies can be observed in politics. Among first steps was unpopular action: liberalization of prices on fuel, electricity and public utilities. Natural disaster, caused big loses in livestock, worsened economical situation of the country even bigger. Today new government faced serous economic problems, and failure to solve them might cost them incumbency as it was in a case of its predecessors.

Some observations

A. Political system
The Mongolian constitution of 1992 defines Mongolia as a parliamentary democracy. Nevertheless president exercises considerable influence in political process, having right to veto decisions of parliament (although it can be over-turned with two-thirds vote in parliament), to appoint judges, to declare a state of emergency or a state of war on the whole or a part of the national territory. President is directly elected in separate elections. The parliamentary crisis, scandals around parliamentary deputies, poor performance of government enhanced position of president. In rankings of the most prominent of respectful politicians president is permanently in leading positions. Such situation reinforces public opinion about necessity to switch to presidential form of government. According survey of Sant Maral research organization, 38 percent of surveyed preferred a presidential form of government. Incumbent president, elected from MPRP, used several times his right of veto to block attempts to form a new government with MPRP’s leader Enhbayar as prime minister. This step is likely to interpret as incumbent president’s strategy to push for a new presidential system by creating public discontent with parliament, and growing tension within MPRP’s orthodox wing supported by president and reformist wing of young members led by party chair and incumbent Prime Minister Enhbayar.

B. Political party system According the law about political parties a political party has right to be registered in the case if it has more than 801 members. At present more than 20 political parties are registered at Ministry of Justice. The main parties on the country’s political arena are Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP), Mongolian National Democratic Party (MNDP), and Mongolian Social Democratic Party (MSDP). For minor parties is characteristic that they are centered around one leader that could be prominent politicians or business leader, and it is possible to say that they are reflecting interest-group approach to vote seeking. Example of such minor parties could be Mongolian New Socialist Democratic Party led by successful businessman Erdenebat, who won parliamentary elections last year, and Mongolian Republican Party with its leader and businessman B.Jargalsaihan, whose name regularly appears in ratings of most popular politicians. Activities of minor parties increase remarkably during electoral campaign; between elections people can barely hear about its activities.

The political platforms of the parties are very similar, and it is quiet complicated to understand political orientations of parties only on the basis of party documents. Each party claims their commitment to democratic ideals and market economy. Moreover, parties are not coherent internally, except maybe MSDP, which supporters are mainly intellectuals and university students. Positions of the parties toward salient issues are similar. The main distinction between these parties is their attitude to historical past of the country. MNDP and MSDP have clear defined anti-communist orientation, criticizing political repressions during communist times, and consequently MPRP as an initiator of the repressions. Nevertheless, MPRP has distanced from its old Marxist platform, officially apologized for political repressions during communist times, and proclaimed itself as reformed political force, committed to values of democratic society and market economy.

Organizational principle of major Mongolian political parties is identical. Political parties of democratic bloc (MNDP, MSDP) emerged as mass social movements for radical changes in the society, gradually converting themselves into catch-all party type. In own turn, the MPRP had undergone transformation from cadre-party to catch-all party type, dropping much of its past ideological baggage. All major parties established own branches at the countryside, where is a limited access to information. Activities of branches centered on recruitment of new members and political education. Attempting to gain support from different social groups of population, all main parties created own supporter’s organizations among youth, elders and women, leading the way of communist legacy.

It is also quiet complicated to say about mechanism of party identification of Mongolian voter. According classical Michigan concept, party identification developed in the family, following parental clues. The inter-generational transmission of party identification was thus expected to maintain the long-term political stability of the political system. It is likely to take three generations to develop strong party identification. In communist countries there was the only party to identify with. Communist party was a cadre-type party with a strict criteria for selection its members. Candidate for membership in communist party had to pass through tough selection procedures. Party membership was considered as a kind of award for loyalty to regime. In transitional stage such state of thing supported creation of a negative party identification among people, particularly among young generation. The majority of Mongolians has negative attitudes toward political parties. According data of public opinion survey, conducted by survey organization Sant Maral at November of 2000, only 21 percents of surveys answered that they believe in political parties.

For most of political parties in Mongolia there is no clear partisanship base. The only party, which could to claim of having strong support among rural population, is MPRP. In elections of 1996, when MPRP lost majority in parliament, it managed to gain 23 out of all MPRP’s 25 seats in parliament from rural constituencies, but only 3 seats out of 20 in the capital Ulaanbaatar. That situation could be explained by low level of political mobilization of rural population, their limited access to information, and patriarchal mode of life preserving in the countryside and having certain impact on voting decisions. In urban area, transitional changes (privatization, unemployment) completely changed social composition of urban dwellers, having impact on shift of their voting preferences.
However, at the beginning of transitional process newly emerged political parties of democratic orientations enjoyed substantial support among young people and intellectuals, mainly from the capital city. Leaders of new political parties- young, enthusiastic, well-educated, cosmopolitan and at the same time respecting national traditions were new phenomena in political life of the country, and it helped to establish a positive public image of new parties. Nevertheless worsening economic situation, poor performance of democratic forces during their incumbency, and continuous political scandals significantly damaged image of the parties and its leaders.

Today Mongolia has a floating party system, in which number, names and claims of parties are changing from one election to the next. Twelve of about 20 parties, participated in 2000 elections, have been founded since 1998. It is possible to assume that break-up of parties and the entry of new parties on the political arena might lead to increase number of undecided choices and to decline strength of party identification. But outcomes of last election in 2000 shows a little bit different picture. Parties of democratic bloc recognized their low level of public support, but instead uniting their efforts against MPRP they opted for the cult of personality. All parties were busy making offers to the Mongolian elite: from famous wrestlers to well-known politicians. But personality factor played only minor role in elections of 2000. Most of elected MPRP parliamentary deputies are newcomers in politics, who are not well known for wide public.

The party cohesion also supposed to be played certain role on party identification of voters. The only party did not split and did not change own name during given period was MPRP. Some of its members defected to other parties, the party itself changed political program and symbol, nevertheless in eyes of public MPRP has image of stable political party with clear defined aims and high level of party cohesion and party discipline. There are many cases when MPRP managed to maintain united vote on some important issues, while parties of democratic bloc voted split.

On the contrary, political parties of democratic bloc are characterized by high degree of fracture and of disunity. During last decade party of democratic bloc was splitting and uniting several times; electoral outcomes and political situation before elections, party’s internal intrigues were the main reasons for that actions. So, after defeat in elections of 1992 two main opposition parties- Mongolian Democratic Party and Mongolian National Progress Party united forming Mongolian National Democratic Party. And recently in December of 2000 after defeat in the last elections four parties of democratic orientation, including Mongolian National Democratic Party formed Mongolian Democratic Party. Because of diversified political platforms of political groups composed the party, its supporter’s base, and political ambition of party leaders, the only basis for Democratic Party’s consolidation seems to be its anti-communist orientation. The formation of Democratic Party seems to be a logical consequence of political process in terms of the strategy of political competition in further perspective. Results of public opinion survey, conducted by research organization Sant Maral in November of 2000- just one month before formation of Democratic Party, indicated strong support of MPRP, but national democrats and social democrats were placed second. /Table/

Table. If tomorrow will be presidential elections, which party’s candidate you will vote for?

Rural area
Ulaanbaatar
Total
MPRP
55
50
53
MNDP-MSDP
25
26
26
Civil Will Party*
3
4
4
MNSDP**
11
8
10
No answer
6
12
7
* Party separated from MNDP ** Mongolian New Socialist Democratic Party

Such division between MPRP and MDP seems to be more comprehensive, clearing certain ambiguity for voters, many of them failed to distinguish clear difference between major party platforms. The concept of left-right is new for Mongolians. Moreover, democratic parties confused voters, when national democrats claim themselves as a party of liberal orientations, while social democrats themselves as left-wing party. But from the broad perspective, on the basis of public opinion surveys we could make assumption that the voters had elaborated own perception of political parties’ position on left-right scale. The MPRP, convinced strong state intervention in market reforms, could be placed on the left part of the scale, while MNDP, that adopted free market reforms with limited participation of state, on the right. The social democrats are playing ambiguous role, swinging from left to right. But, basically, they are leaning more to the right part of continuum. The merge of national democrats and social democrats could cause their shift toward center.

Majoritarian electoral scheme, which was adopted by law about elections in 1996, is a subject of controversy. Minor parties have objections to that electoral formula, claiming that wishes of the Mongolians are nor been faithfully represented. The results of previous elections support their opinion. About 40 or more percent of vote was not represented in parliament during the previous elections. But from the other point of view, the wide representation of main political parties in parliament has positive impact in terms of accountability of ruling party or coalition. And results of consecutive elections support that assumption in terms of reward-punishing theory of elections. Any incumbent government did not manage to be re-elected for the next term. Nevertheless, it seems necessary to reconsider majoritarian electoral formula for Mongolia, which are in a process of transition to market economy.
Swings in political balance of power do not play positive role for transitional process, because it means discontinuation in process of reforms started by previous incumbent government, and therefore further political instability in society.

And, finally, it is evident that in transitional societies, particularly in Mongolia where according Living Standards Survey 1999 more than 36 percent of population are living below poverty line, economic considerations have decisive impact on voting decisions of citizens. Results of elections, held in Mongolia during last decade, show close correlation between economic situation and political choice of voters.

It was a brief review of political process in Mongolia during decade of democratic transition. Many statements have preliminary, hypothetical character, and have to prove by further empirical studies.