Statistical Sampling
Statistical Sampling
Statistical Sampling 1. The authors of the paper make assumptions about the U.S. population on three dimensions. What are the three dimensions? (Hint: The authors refer to these dimensions as "components of change.")
Answer: The three dimensions would be migration, fertility, and mortality. 2. What is the expected population of the U.S. in 2050 given the new series (i.e., based on 1998 data) based on the lowest series? The middle series? And the highest series?
Answer: Lowest - 313,546,000 Middle - 403,687,000 Highest - 552,757,000
3. What do the lowest, middle, and highest series represent?
Answer: Just as one would utilize sampling in an audit context, this document emphasizes how key sampling judgments affect sample results. The lowest, middle, and highest series represent the effects of varying expectations in regards to mortality fertility, and migration. These projections don’t include a systematic measurement of uncertainty regarding these dimensions. By applying variant assumptions for each component in an individual manner, this would result in the range of a population series that would be identified with the maximum variance to this component. In order to produce the lowest and highest series, the authors combined the extreme values of all three major components favored the lowest and highest population growth easily. This means the extreme projections do not represent complete scenarios altogether, but build to represent the extremes between it, while this is where they likely fell upon the outcomes. Fertility and international migration imposed a greater uncertainty on the projections than did mortality, because childbearing and mobility, but a greater extent of death, as they are functions of individual and collective decision-making that are difficult to forecast accurately.
4. Why do you think that it is not constitutional to use sampling techniques to count our current census? If we trust
Statistical Sampling 1. The authors of the paper make assumptions about the U.S. population on three dimensions. What are the three dimensions? (Hint: The authors refer to these dimensions as "components of change.")
Answer: The three dimensions would be migration, fertility, and mortality. 2. What is the expected population of the U.S. in 2050 given the new series (i.e., based on 1998 data) based on the lowest series? The middle series? And the highest series?
Answer: Lowest - 313,546,000 Middle - 403,687,000 Highest - 552,757,000
3. What do the lowest, middle, and highest series represent?
Answer: Just as one would utilize sampling in an audit context, this document emphasizes how key sampling judgments affect sample results. The lowest, middle, and highest series represent the effects of varying expectations in regards to mortality fertility, and migration. These projections don’t include a systematic measurement of uncertainty regarding these dimensions. By applying variant assumptions for each component in an individual manner, this would result in the range of a population series that would be identified with the maximum variance to this component. In order to produce the lowest and highest series, the authors combined the extreme values of all three major components favored the lowest and highest population growth easily. This means the extreme projections do not represent complete scenarios altogether, but build to represent the extremes between it, while this is where they likely fell upon the outcomes. Fertility and international migration imposed a greater uncertainty on the projections than did mortality, because childbearing and mobility, but a greater extent of death, as they are functions of individual and collective decision-making that are difficult to forecast accurately.
4. Why do you think that it is not constitutional to use sampling techniques to count our current census? If we trust