Understanding Evolution in Technology Ecosystems
CACM Reference Number: A2612
UNDERSTANDING EVOLUTION IN TECHNOLOGY ECOSYSTEMS
Gediminas Adomavicius, Jesse Bockstedt, Alok Gupta, and Robert J. Kauffman Department of Information and Decision Sciences Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota
{gadomavicius, jbockstedt, agupta, rkauffman}@csom.umn.edu
The current technological environment is becoming increasingly complex, and managers are faced with new challenges related to technology forecasting, technology investment and adoption, and new product development. The technology ecosystem model provides a principled approach to understanding evolution of technology artifacts and environment by taking into account the interdependent nature of related technologies. UNDERSTANDING TODAY’S DYNAMIC TECHNOLOGY ENVIRONMENT The current environment of business technology can be a complex place to navigate for senior managers making decisions about new product development, technology investment, and technology planning. Many industry analysts recognize that it is difficult, if not impossible, to accurately predict future technological advances. However, successful managers and entrepreneurs in today’s fast-paced, on-demand world have to understand the nature of technological change and evolution in order to accurately forecast and take advantage of investment and market opportunities. For example, there is no doubt that the VoIP industry presents huge technology investment opportunities – the VoIP equipment market is forecast to reach $8.5 billion by 2008 (Frost and Sullivan 2005). However, converging technology capabilities in this industry are making it challenging to know how VoIP will evolve, which further emphasizes the financial importance of accurate technology forecasts. There has been extensive research on the nature of innovation and technological change which provides many theories of technological evolution and numerous methods for technological forecasting. (See Porter et al. 1991 and Ziman 2000
UNDERSTANDING EVOLUTION IN TECHNOLOGY ECOSYSTEMS
Gediminas Adomavicius, Jesse Bockstedt, Alok Gupta, and Robert J. Kauffman Department of Information and Decision Sciences Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota
{gadomavicius, jbockstedt, agupta, rkauffman}@csom.umn.edu
The current technological environment is becoming increasingly complex, and managers are faced with new challenges related to technology forecasting, technology investment and adoption, and new product development. The technology ecosystem model provides a principled approach to understanding evolution of technology artifacts and environment by taking into account the interdependent nature of related technologies. UNDERSTANDING TODAY’S DYNAMIC TECHNOLOGY ENVIRONMENT The current environment of business technology can be a complex place to navigate for senior managers making decisions about new product development, technology investment, and technology planning. Many industry analysts recognize that it is difficult, if not impossible, to accurately predict future technological advances. However, successful managers and entrepreneurs in today’s fast-paced, on-demand world have to understand the nature of technological change and evolution in order to accurately forecast and take advantage of investment and market opportunities. For example, there is no doubt that the VoIP industry presents huge technology investment opportunities – the VoIP equipment market is forecast to reach $8.5 billion by 2008 (Frost and Sullivan 2005). However, converging technology capabilities in this industry are making it challenging to know how VoIP will evolve, which further emphasizes the financial importance of accurate technology forecasts. There has been extensive research on the nature of innovation and technological change which provides many theories of technological evolution and numerous methods for technological forecasting. (See Porter et al. 1991 and Ziman 2000
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