each • 100% probability (certain) • Least common 6. What is decision-making under conditions of RISK? • Lack of certainty regarding outcomes of various alternatives‚ but an awareness of probabilities associated with their occurrence • Alternatives are known‚ but outcomes are in doubt • Probability between 0 &100% 7. What is decision-making under conditions of UNCERTAINTY? • Don’t know alternatives‚ outcomes‚ or the probability of the outcomes occurrence
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Learning Journal Unit 5 University of the People MATH 1280 - Introduction to Statistics David Hays (Instructor) May‚ 12th 2024. 1. What is the probability that the 10th transistor produced is the first with a defect? This question is asking for the probability that the first defective transistor appears exactly on the 10th trial. This is a basic problem for the geometric distribution‚ which predicts the number of trials in multiple separate trials that are required to get the first success
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put tabulate the Binomial Distribution for various n given the values of p which are (0.1‚ 0.2‚ 0.3‚ 0.4‚ 0.5‚ 0.6‚ 0.7‚ 0.8 and 0.9). The binomial distribution is the discrete probability distribution of the number of successes in a sequence of n independent yes/no experiments‚ each of which yields success with probability p. This success/failure experiment is also called a Bernoulli experiment or Bernoulli trial. The binomial distribution is a Bernoulli distribution when n = 1. In many cases‚
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Estimated Future Cash Inflows – Undiscounted (in $ millions) Option Probability of Occurring 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Probability Weighted A 10% $1.0 $.9 $.7 $.7 $.7 $4.0 $0.4 B 20% .6 .8 1.1 1.6 1.9 6.0 $1.2 C 70% $1.0 $3.0 $0 $0 $0 $4.0 $2.8 Total 100% $4.4 Since there are three different operating scenarios that will impact the recoverability test‚ an estimated future cash inflow weighted by probability of occurrence would be appropriate to use. For this method‚ the expected
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number i.e. 7‚500. Therefore‚ 4‚728 = 5.16 . Solving for the unknown = (5.16 x 7500)/4728 = 8.185 Therefore n = 67 and the mean of the population is 82‚636 + (4728/2) = 85‚000. 1|Page 1c (1) Hypothesis testing is used to determine the probability that a specified hypothesis is true. The assumption in this case that the mean salary of the population is 85‚000‚ is called the null hypothesis (H0). The alternative hypothesis (H1) is a claim to be
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QUADRILAERALS QUADRILATERALS – Quadrilateral is a union of four line segments determined by four distinct co-planar points of which no three are collinear and the line-segment intersect at end points. Quadrilateral ABCD is denoted by □ABCD. PARTS OF QUADRILATERAL: (□ABCD) Points A‚ B‚ C‚ D are called the vertices of □ABCD AB‚ BC‚ CD and AD are called the sides of ABCD AC‚ BD are called Diagonals of ABCD A‚ B‚C and D are the four angles of ABCD A Quadrilateral
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Based on present test data‚ however‚ the typical user has the following probabilities of achieving different performance results and cost savings (relative to the current unit) in the first year of operation (assume these annual cost savings would escalate 5% per year thereafter; a five-year analysis period is used; the MARR=18%‚ and the net market value after five years is 0): |Performance Results |Probability |Cost Savings in Year One
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from an email list in 2009" a joint event? It neeeds to fit both criteria‚ 3 or more clicks and occur in the year 2009 4.9 Referring to the contingency table in Problem 4.8‚ if a large online retailer is selected at random‚ what is the probability that a. you needed three or more clicks to be removed from an email list? P = 46/200 = 23% b. you needed three or more clicks o be removed from an email list in 2009? P = 39/200 = 19.5% c. you needed three or more clicks to be removed
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1. The time between arrivals of cars at MRR Service Company is shown in the following probability distribution: Times between Arrivals (Min) Probability 1 0.15 2 0.30 3 0.40 4 0.15 1.00 a) Simulate the arrival of cars at the company for 20 arrivals‚ and compute the average time between arrivals. Random number: 39‚ 73‚ 72‚ 75‚ 37‚ 02‚ 87‚ 98‚ 10‚ 47‚ 93‚ 21‚ 95‚ 97‚ 69‚ 41‚ 91‚ 80‚ 67‚ 59. b) Simulate the arrival of cars at the service station for one hour‚ and compute the average time between
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Introduction to the Economics of Uncertainty and Information Timothy Van Zandt INSEAD November 2004 Copyright 2004 Preliminary and incomplete: Use only with the permission of the author. Author’s address: Voice: +33 1 6072 4981 INSEAD Boulevard de Constance Fax: +33 1 6074 6192 77305 Fontainebleau CEDEX Email: tvz@insead.edu FRANCE WWW: faculty.insead.edu/vanzandt Table of Contents 1 Choosing among Uncertain Prospects 1.1 Introduction to decision theory . . . . . . . . . . . .
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