Consumer Behaviour
University of Pennsylvania
ScholarlyCommons
Marketing Papers
9-1-1991
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania, armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu
Postprint version. Published in Journal of Consumer Research, Volume 18, Issue 2, September 1991, pages 251-256. Publisher URL: http://www.jstor.org/browse/00935301?config=jstor This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. http://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/46 For more information, please contact repository@pobox.upenn.edu.
Reprinted from Journal of Consumer Research, 18 (September), 1991, 251-256, published by the University of Chicago Press, © 1991 by the Journal of Consumer Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices J. Scott Armstrong1 Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical studies selected from Journal of Consumer Research. A total of 1,736 predictions were obtained from 16 academics, 12 practitioners, and 43 high school students: The practitioners were correct on 58.2 percent of the hypotheses, the students on 56.6 percent, and the academics on 51.3 percent. No group performed better than chance.
This article presents a study on the predictive value of scientific knowledge of consumer behavior. It does this by obtaining predictions from people who should be well acquainted with such knowledge, and comparing their predictions with those by people who are unlikely to have this knowledge.2 The first section of the article presents the hypotheses. A description of the prediction study is then presented, followed by results and limitations. Finally, suggestions are provided for improving the predictive value of research on consumer behavior. Hypotheses Consumer behavior was expected to be a field in which one could demonstrate gains in
ScholarlyCommons
Marketing Papers
9-1-1991
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania, armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu
Postprint version. Published in Journal of Consumer Research, Volume 18, Issue 2, September 1991, pages 251-256. Publisher URL: http://www.jstor.org/browse/00935301?config=jstor This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. http://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/46 For more information, please contact repository@pobox.upenn.edu.
Reprinted from Journal of Consumer Research, 18 (September), 1991, 251-256, published by the University of Chicago Press, © 1991 by the Journal of Consumer Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices J. Scott Armstrong1 Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical studies selected from Journal of Consumer Research. A total of 1,736 predictions were obtained from 16 academics, 12 practitioners, and 43 high school students: The practitioners were correct on 58.2 percent of the hypotheses, the students on 56.6 percent, and the academics on 51.3 percent. No group performed better than chance.
This article presents a study on the predictive value of scientific knowledge of consumer behavior. It does this by obtaining predictions from people who should be well acquainted with such knowledge, and comparing their predictions with those by people who are unlikely to have this knowledge.2 The first section of the article presents the hypotheses. A description of the prediction study is then presented, followed by results and limitations. Finally, suggestions are provided for improving the predictive value of research on consumer behavior. Hypotheses Consumer behavior was expected to be a field in which one could demonstrate gains in