WORKING PAPER SERIES
Predicting Potential For Promotion: How The Data In Human Resource Information Systems Can Be Used To Help Organizations Gain Competitive Advantage
Gary S. Fields
Working Paper 02 - 14
Predicting Potential for Promotion:
CAHRS WP02-14
Predicting Potential For Promotion: How The Data In Human Resource Information Systems Can Be Used To Help Organizations Gain Competitive Advantage
Gary S. Fields Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations 250 Ives Hall Ithaca, NY 14853-3901 Tel: (607) 255-4561 Fax: (607) 255-4496 e-mail: gsf2@cornell.edu
July 2002
http://www.ilr.cornell.edu/cahrs This paper has not undergone formal review or approval of the faculty of the ILR School. It is intended to make results of Center research available to others interested in preliminary form to encourage discussion and suggestions.
Page 2
Predicting Potential for Promotion: Abstract
CAHRS WP02-14
This paper utilizes the data contained in the Human Resources Information System (HRIS) of a company, called here “Engineering Solutions,” and analyzes the drivers of potential for promotion among a sample of engineers. The methods used consist of basic statistical procedures, multiple regressions, ordered logits, and decompositions. The results show which variables are the main drivers of potential for promotion in this organization, which are minor drivers, and which do not matter at all.
Statement of Confidentiality: This manuscript is unpublished copyrighted work. It is for research purposes only and cannot be used for commercial purposes without the express written consent of the author, Gary S. Fields. Gary S. Fields, 2002
Page 3
Predicting Potential for Promotion:
CAHRS WP02-14
Predicting Potential For Promotion: How The Data In Human Resource Information Systems Can Be Used To Help
References: CAHRS WP02-14 Bamberger, P. & Meshoulam, I., 2001. Human resource strategy: Formulation, implementation, and impact. Thousand Oaks, CA, Sage Publications. Baron, J.N. & Kreps, D.M., 1999. Strategic human resources: frameworks for general managers. New York, Wiley. Becker, G.S., 1964. Human capital. New York, National Bureau of Economic Research. Blau, F.D., Ferber, M.A., & Winkler, A.E., 2002. The economics of women, men, and work. Upper Saddle River, NJ, Prentice-Hall. Bossidy, L. & Charan, R., 2002. Execution: The discipline of getting things done. New York, Crown Business. Breusch, T. & Pagan, A., 1980. The LM test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies 47: 239-254. Caldwell, D.F. & Spivey, W.A., 1983. The relationship between the recruiting source and employee success: An analysis by race. Personnel Psychology. 36: 67-72. Cappelli, P. & Neumark, D., 2001. Do ‘high-performance’ work practices improve establishment-level outcomes? Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 54, 737-775. Collins, J., 2001. Good to great. New York, Harper Business. Ehrenberg, R.G. and Smith, R.S., 2002. Modern labor economics (8th ed.). Reading, MA, Addison Wesley Longman. Fields, G.S. and Yoo, G., 2000. Falling labor income inequality in Korea’s economic growth: Patterns and underlying causes. Review of Income and Wealth 46: 139-160. Fields, G.S., 2001. Accounting for income inequality and its change: A new method, with application to the distribution of earnings in the United States. Processed. Fields, G.S., 2002. ‘Keeping our best’: Econometric analysis of retention and performance at Engineering Solutions. Processed. Gibbons, R., 1999. Incentives and careers in organizations. In D. Kreps and K. Wallis (Eds.), Advances in economic theory and econometrics, vol. 2: 1-37. New York, Cambridge University Press. Glanz, E.F. & Dailey, L.K., 1992. Benchmarking. Human resource management. 31, 9-20. Gubman, E.L. 1998. The talent solution. New York: McGraw-Hill. Hammer, M. & Champy, J., 1993. Reengineering the corporation. New York, Harper Business. Kirman, J.P., Farley, J.A., & Geisinger, K.F., 1989. The relationship between recruiting source, applicant quality, and hire performance: An analysis by sex, ethnicity, and age. Personnel psychology. 42: 293-308. Page 32 Predicting Potential for Promotion: CAHRS WP02-14 Lazear, E.P., 1992. The job as a concept. In Bruns, W.J., Jr. (Ed.), Performance, measurement, evaluation, and incentives. Boston: Harvard Business School Press. Lazear, E. P., 1998. Personnel economics for managers. New York, Wiley. Mincer, J., 1974. Schooling, experience, and earnings. New York, National Bureau of Economic Research. Noe, R.A., Hollenbeck, J. R., Gerhart, B., & Wright, P.M., 2000. Human resource management: Gaining a competitive advantage. Boston: Irwin McGraw-Hill. Pfeffer, J., 1998. The human equation: Building profits by putting people first. Boston, Harvard Business School Press. Rynes, S.L. & Milkovich, G.T., 1986. Wage surveys: dispelling some myths about the ‘market wage’. Personnel Psychology 39: 71-90. Schultz, T. W., 1962. Reflections on investment in man. Journal of political economy, LXX (5, part 2), 1-8. Welch, J. with Byrne, J.A., 2001. Jack: Straight from the gut. New York, Warner Business Books. Wright, P. & McMahan, G., 1992. Theoretical perspectives for strategic human resource management. Journal of Management. 18: 295-320. Zellner, A., 1962. An efficient method of estimating seeming unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 57: 348-368. Page 33